Not that worried

 

This offseason has not been fun. I am right there with all of the other frustrated Orioles fans. After a 96 win, AL East winning, ALCS reaching season, to watch in the span of one week, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis ( the most painful of all for me, I can't lie I shed tears when the news broke Nick was a Brave) and Andrew Miller leave via free agency, has been nothing but painful. Add to that seeing other teams in the division make moves and watching all the outfield options vanish one by one, and it has not been a joy at all.

Even with all this bad news, I still feel good about the 2015 season. No, I really do. I am not insane...well not completely insane. There are a lot of reasons to feel good about the Orioles in 2015. Even though the rest of the division has been busy making moves, I am not all that worried about the rest of the division. And, well, here's why.

New York Yankees

The Yanks got Andrew Miller. We as Orioles fans know just how good Miller can be, getting to see it the last two months of the season and in the playoffs. Miller and Bentances should make for quite the one two punch at the back end of their pen. But neither one of them have ever closed. So while I'm not saying neither won't be able to get the job done, it is still at least a question mark heading into the season. And hey, it's great to have lock down guys at the end of the game, but will they be able to get to either of them with a lead? They lost several starting pitchers, including Brandon McCarthy via free agency and others through trades. CC is coming off an injury, Tanaka could end up needing TJ still, and the list goes on. Their rotation is nothing to get excited about in my opinion. 

Then look at their infield. Desperately re-signing Stephen Drew because they had no second basemen. Injury concerns at first and catcher. Didi Gregorius gets the task of trying to replace Derek Jeter ( wait....wait...you mean to tell me that even though the mighty Derek Jeter retired there is still going to be a baseball season!!?? ) with his all glove and no bat. Also they have the fun circus that is Alex Rodriguez coming back. Color me not worried about them.

Toronto Blue Jays

Russell Martin is a good add. No doubt about it. Solid hitter, real good defense. Donaldson instead of Lawrie should be a plus. But at the moment they still have no second basemen, no closer and some holes in their pen. Stroman is a really good looking young pitcher, but after that I am not overly impressed with the rotation. The could have a vary good offense. But right now I still don't think they have enough pitching to win the division.

Tampa Bay Rays

They have lost their GM, their manager and then traded away almost every player who's name you know . They still have Longo and...well, that's about it. And they do still have darn good starting pitching. Their pen is a question. And again (how is this different from any other year?) they are all pitching and no offense. They seem to be in a transition phase. Their pitching could still make them annoying. But I don't think they are threat to make the playoffs.

Boston Red Sox

Maybe the most active of the teams in the division. They added two big bats, even though Sandoval's numbers have gone down each of the past few seasons, and Hanley Ramirez, who is a tremendous hitter, has had a problem staying on the field. They are moving him to the outfield, somewhere he has never played. Does that mean he can't do it? Of course not, but it is at least a question mark to start the year. They could have a fantastic offense, but then there is this other part of the game everyone that is in a panic over the moves they have made seems to forget: It's called pitching. They have made some moves, adding Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson, but I'm not sold. Porcello is a good addition, but I wouldn't call him an ace. Miley has had a couple solid years, but again doesn't really scare me. The Soxs have probably fixed their offense, but to me what their rotation appears to be right now is not impressive at all.

Now for the Orioles. Why should you actually not be too worried about the team? Well even though I will miss Nick Markakis, Alejandro De Aza could replace his production. Admittedly I am not the most thrilled person about the idea of Steve Pearce as the other starting corner outfielder. I feel his best role is playing 3-5 times a week and moving around between first base, the outfield and DH. But maybe I am wrong and he will be as productive, if not more so than he was this past season.

The Orioles also have three key players coming back from injuries or down seasons in Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis. I'm sure most people roll their eyes when they see this come up again, but really, I mean really a healthy Wieters and Machado and even a 2012 version of Chris Davis would be giant pluses for this team.

Manny Machado got off to a slow start in 2014. May and June were not great. But look at what he did in July and August. In July he hit .333/.356/.565. And in August .378/.429/.511. In just 327 ab's he hit 12 home runs. In 2013 he hit 14 in 667. Manny could easily be a 30 home run hitter this season. That will certainly ease some of the pain of losing Cruz and his 40 homers.

Matt Wieters changed his batting stance in 2014. And it worked wonderfully. He was off to by far his best season with the bat. The biggest change was noticed with Wieters hitting left handed. His numbers had always been less than stellar from the left side. Though he did seem to have better power left handed, 58 homers left handed and 34 right handed. Granted he gets more ab's from the left side since there are less left handed pitchers. But in 2013 Wieters hit .214/.270/.358 from the left side. After the change to his stance Wieters was hitting .325/.367/.482 left handed. That is one heck of a jump. If this change to his stance allows him to keep hitting like this left handed his bat will help make up for the players the Orioles have lost.

Chris Davis had one heck of a disaster of a season in 2014. The batting average under .200. The suspension for something he had approval to take before and now has approval to take again ( anyone else confused by all of this? I know I am ) . There is just no way he could be as bad as this past season. Davis was approved by MLB for Adderall use this season (the drug he was suspended for using last season - go figure) and new hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh has expressed confidence in a renewed Chris Davis this season. Also both he and Matt Wieters are in walk years, and will be looking to get paid big time.

Something else to think about: JJ Hardy had a back issue last year that may have lead to his down year, power-wise. If his back issues are gone we could see the return of the 20-30 homer JJ. As well there is the hope that Jonathan Schoop improves at the plate. He hit 16 homers as a rookie, but his BA was not great and at times he appeared to be swinging for the moon. If he can become a bit more selective and maybe just try and make contact instead of trying to kill the ball all the time he could have a good season and easily hit over 20 homers.

One theory as to why the Orioles have not gone after any of the free agent outfielders is that Dariel Alvarez may be on the verge of joining the big league club. He hit .309/.332/.487 with 14 homers in 359 AB's in double A last year. I don't think he will make the team out of spring training, but he is someone to keep an eye out for and he could make a big impact in 2015.

Then there is the pitching. The Orioles pitching, especially from June on, was a giant strength of the team. They have all 6 of their potential starters back. Gausman now has pretty much a full season in the bigs under his belt. He could be poised to take a big step and become the ever elusive “ace” of the staff. Also there is the bull pen. Yes they lost Andrew Miller, and yes he was fantastic in his short time in Baltimore. But everyone seems to forget this, the Orioles pen was really really good before the trade for Miller. It sucks to lose him. He was great, but this pen should be fine without him.

So yeah this offseason has been not so much fun. And it isn't over yet. So who knows. But even if nothing else is done, I still think this is a team that can win this division.

Matt Baggette @mlb930