Can I buy a vowel...and a win?

In light of Chris Davis's interview with the Baltimore Sun a couple weeks ago that had social media ablaze, I finally decided to take a look at an age old debate – does payroll have a direct relation to wins? In his interview, Davis was discussing his future and suggested he needed to see more of a commitment from the Orioles to their future before he would consider an extension. He said he did not want to sign on long-term with a losing team and cited teams like Boston, New York and Toronto as those who spend to win.

Looking to rebound from a forgettable
season, Chris Davis polarized Orioles
fans with his recent interview.

The only problem with Davis’s claim is that he selected three teams that don’t win; at least not recently or with any kind of consistency. In the past three seasons, the Baltimore Orioles have two playoff appearances. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays have two playoff appearances in that span as well – COMBINED.

Granted, the Red Sox won a World Series in that time, but it was a bit soured by the fact that they sandwiched it between two last place finishes. Imagine having a sandwich with the most succulent and tasty roast beef you’ve ever had in your life, but instead of bread, you get two moldy sponges that were used to scrub a public toilet. I’ll let that image marinate in your mind for a minute…

Now let’s move on.

I was surprised by Davis’s comments for two reasons:

1. He’s coming off an abysmal offensive year – he hit just .196 – in which he also managed to get himself suspended. Someone in his position should be the last one to speak up about the quality of the team or its desire to win.
2. Davis has been a part of an Orioles team that is second only to the Oakland Athletics in wins in the American League since the start of 2012. And he doesn’t see a team that’s committed to winning?

But there’s a deeper issue here, one evidenced by the shocking amount of fans who have sided with Davis: the obsession with a team’s payroll and the belief that it is directly related to wins, even when recent evidence seems to show the contrary (see: Pittsburgh, KC, Tampa Bay, etc.). Having a ton of money to spend definitely helps, but it can be overcome through good scouting, smart drafts, and smart spending and personnel decisions.

Take the Cardinals as an example. They decided Albert Pujols, a hometown hero, was too rich for their blood and let him go to Anaheim. Fans weren’t happy, but they trusted the front office. All the Cardinals have done is make the playoffs each year since, including a World Series appearance. Albert has gone to the playoffs just once in three seasons with the mega-spending Angels, and they were knocked off by an upstart wildcard team in Kansas City in the first round. So why has Nick Markakis become a tipping point for Orioles players and fans, especially when the team has proven their method produces results over the past three years?

Rather than bash Chris Davis (even though I STRONGLY disagreed with his comments), I want to look at the deeper issue of payroll vs. success. I’m going to look at playoff teams from the last 10 seasons and where they ranked in terms of payroll, and then see if any conclusions can be drawn from that.

Below are the playoff teams for each season, with their MLB payroll rank in parentheses. Bold = World Series winner.

2014: Dodgers (1), Tigers (5), Angels (6), Giants (7), Nationals (9), Cardinals (13), Orioles (15), Royals (19), Athletics (25), Pirates (27)

2013: Dodgers (2), Red Sox (4), Tigers (5), Cardinals (10), Reds (13), Braves (16), Pirates (20), Indians (21), Athletics (27), Rays (28)

2012: Yankees (1), Tigers (5), Rangers (6), Giants (8), Cardinals (9), Braves (16), Reds (17), Orioles (19), Nationals (20), Athletics (29),

2011: Yankees (1), Phillies (2), Tigers (10), Cardinals (11), Rangers (13), Brewers (17), Diamondbacks (25), Rays (29)

2010: Yankees (1), Phillies (4), Giants (10), Twins (11), Braves (15), Reds (19), Rays (21), Rangers (27)

2009: Yankees (1), Red Sox (4), Angels (6), Phillies (7), Dodgers (9), Cardinals (13), Rockies (18), Twins (24)

2008: Red Sox (4), White Sox (5), Angels (6), Dodgers (7), Cubs (8), Phillies (12), Brewers (15), Rays (29)

2007: Yankees (1), Red Sox (2), Angels (4), Cubs (8), Phillies (13), Indians (23), Rockies (25), Diamondbacks (26)

2006: Yankees (1), Mets (5), Dodgers (6), Cardinals (11), Tigers (14), Padres (17), Twins (19), Athletics (21)

2005: Yankees (1), Red Sox (2), Angels (5), Cardinals (6), Braves (10), Astros (12), White Sox (13), Padres (17)

The 2009 New York Yankees are the only team in the last 10
years to win the World Series with the league's top payroll (and
the only playoff team with the highest payroll in a given year
to win it).                                                                                        

So what are some trends we can draw from this?

First of all, let’s look at the World Series winners. The worst payroll ranking by a World Series champion in the last 10 years was the 2005 White Sox at 13^th, followed by the 2006 and 2001 Cardinals, both 11^th. So perhaps a reasonable argument can be made that in order to win the World Series, you need to spend money, but at the same time, only 3 of 30 Top 5 payroll teams won a WS in the last 10 years, so clearly spending alone does not do the trick.

Facts of note from last 10 seasons:

• Since 2005, 23 of 50 Top 5 payroll teams made the playoffs – that’s less than half. 
• 2009 Yankees were the only team to win the WS with the highest payroll of the playoff teams in a given season
• 25^th and 29^th ranked teams have each made the playoffs three times. #2 ranked teams have only made the playoffs 4 times.
• The #3 ranked team in payroll has not made the playoffs at all in the last 10 seasons.
• Ranks 1-10 produced 42 of 86 playoff teams. Ranks 11-20 have produced 28 of 86. Ranks 21-30 have produced 16 of 86.

Looking at all these facts, what conclusions can be drawn?

Well, it’s obvious you don’t have to spend a ton of money to win, but it’s very difficult if you don’t. Nearly half of the playoff teams in the last 10 years were ranked 10^th or better in payroll, so clearly spending money improves your chances of winning.

However, looking at the amount of teams who are ranked 20^th or worse in payroll and still made the playoffs, and looking at all the teams in the Top 10 who missed the playoffs or failed to advance past the first round, it’s clear that good scouting and drafts and a smart front office can make up for a lack of payroll, and conversely, simply throwing a ton of money at top players does not guarantee success.

The majority of WS teams in the last 10 years were ranked 7-13 in payroll. This suggests that balance is required; that teams do need to spend in the upper half of the league in order to be able to bring home a championship, but that money must also be well spent. A huge checkbook is no substitute for sound personnel decisions and spending money in the right places.

The Orioles are currently ranked 12^th in payroll for 2015. 6 of the 11 teams ahead of them failed to make the playoffs last season, including 3 of the teams Chris Davis cited as being those who spend to win: Yankees, Red Sox, Jays.

While I don’t fault Davis for his assertion that teams need to spend to win, his assertion that the Orioles don’t spend, while other teams in the division do, holds no water in this case because the Orioles are in the top half of the league in spending and are, by far, the most successful team in the AL East in the last three seasons.

What irks me most is Davis’s comment that he doesn’t want to sign long-term to play for a loser every year, implying that’s the type of team the Orioles are because they don’t spend like their division mates. Coming from a guy who has been a member of a team that is second only to the Athletics in wins the last three seasons, I would expect Davis to have a little more confidence in his team. Especially when Dan and Buck’s system produced 96 wins last year despite losing Matt Wieters and Manny Machado for most of the season, and a horrid year (including a suspension) from Davis himself.

As much as I hate to make this comparison, Dan Duquette is, in some ways, the Bill Belichick of MLB. He finds ways to do more with less, and is more concerned with bringing in players who fit his system and ideology than big-name star power. (And hey – Belichick just won a title this year for the first time since 2004 – which, coincidentally, is the last time a Dan Duquette-constructed team won the World Series.)

Do I wish the Orioles would have done more this offseason? Yes. Do I think they’re doomed this season because they didn’t? Not a chance.

Why? 2012. 2013. 2014. That’s why. 274 wins, 2 playoff berths and a division crown. There are less than 5 teams who can claim a better stretch during that span. I may not agree with every decision this organization makes, but people - fans AND players - need to move beyond 1998-2011. Those years are gone. The team is in different hands now – smarter hands. The farm system is rich, depth has increased and sound personnel decisions are being made.

I understand fans being a little antsy, but a player who’s been through it all the last 3 years? I’m really disappointed in Chris Davis.

And for all you fans out there who still insist that spending money guarantees wins and championships – I have some beachfront property in Wyoming I’d like to sell you.

-- Christopher Mills, @cjmills82