Our third installment to the Off The Warehouse 2015 AL East season preview: The Boston Red Sox.
Boston
Red Sox
2014
Record: 71-91
5th in
AL East
2014
Season Review:
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| Will Boston return to former glory? (wikipedia) |
For
the second time in three years, the Boston Red Sox finished in the basement of
the American League East division. The consolation for this,
however, was the World Series Championship in 2013. Fresh off of an
historic collapse in 2011 and a dismal 2012 campaign, the Red Sox followed
unlikely heroes Shane Victorino and Jonny Gomes to their eighth World Series
title and third in ten years. Unfortunately for them, in 2014, they
fell back to the bottom.
By
the July 31st trade deadline, the BoSox were all but out of the
race and had traded away their top pitching talents: Jon Lester to Oakland,
Jake Peavy to San Francisco, John Lackey to St. Louis, and Andrew Miller to
Baltimore. From there, it was all downhill as expected following
those departures. Offseason additions Grady Sizemore and AJ
Pierzynski never panned out, with Pierzynski eventually departing for St.
Louis. Their bullpen hero from 2013, Koji Uehara, showed his age in
the final months of the 2014 season, posting ERAs of 5.56 and 6.23 in August
and September respectively. Clay Buchholz, who looked like a Cy
Young contender before health issues in 2013, pitched to a dismal 5.34 ERA in
28 starts. Outside of a stellar Jon Lester and a solid John Lackey,
the Sox pitching staff, overall, was terrible. These days, a bad
pitching staff usually spells bad things for a team.
The
only real bright spots for the defending champs were another big offensive
season from David Ortiz, who hit 35 home runs and drove in 104 RBI, another
solid season from workhorse and former MVP Dustin Pedroia, and the cannon arm
of former top prospect Jackie Bradley, Jr. Other than that, the 2014
Boston Red Sox were nothing to write home about and it was obvious a lot of
work needed to be done to improve this ball club going forward into 2015.
Key
Losses
Jon
Lester, SP
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| How will the Boston staff fare without their ace? (Boston Globe) |
Jon
Lester was traded to Oakland before the July 31st trade
deadline. Many assumed that the lefty was going to finish the year
in Oakland and then sign a long-term deal with Boston after the season. Unfortunately
for Boston, a rumored low-ball offer earlier in the season drove Lester away
from town and he eventually ended up in Chicago with former Boston executive
Theo Epstein.
Andrew
Miller, LHP
Andrew
Miller was another deadline casualty as the Sox shipped their lefty reliever to
Baltimore for highly rated prospect Eduardo Rodriguez. Miller went
on to dominate in Baltimore before signing a 4 year deal with New York.
John
Lackey, SP
In
case you haven’t noticed a theme yet, Boston’s key losses came mostly from the
trade deadline in 2014. John Lackey posted a 3.60 ERA in a Sox
uniform before heading over to the Cardinals to finish out the season.
Jake
Peavy, SP
Have
you noticed the second theme? Pitching. Jake Peavy was
one of four major pitching talents to be sent out of town during the 2014
season. Peavy went on to win the World Series in San Francisco; his
second straight World Series ring.
Key
Additions
Pablo
Sandoval, 3B
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| How'd they get that panda to cooperate? (USA Today) |
Panda
was one of the top free agents on the market in 2014 and it was well known that
he was going to get a substantial pay day from somebody, and that somebody
turned out to be the Boston Red Sox. On November 24th,
Sandoval signed a 5 year, $100 million contract with a club option for a 6th year.
Hanley
Ramirez, SS (?)
Boston
snagged another highly prized free agent when they signed former Sox prospect
shortstop Hanley Ramirez to a 4 year, $88 million contract with a fifth year
vesting option worth $22 million. Hanley’s role with the 2015 Red
Sox may not be what seems obvious, however, but we’ll get into that later.
Rick
Porcello, SP
Starting
pitcher Rick Porcello was acquired by the Red Sox in a trade that sent
short-stint left fielder Yoenis Cespedes and two others to
Detroit. Following the departures of so much pitching, this move may
prove to be more significant than it looks at face value.
2015
Season Outlook
Based
on the high profile additions of Ramirez and Sandoval, it is safe to say that
the Boston Red Sox were one of the winners of the offseason. They
signed two of the highest profile free agents on the market and were able to
trade for a solid pitcher. But is that enough?
The
loss of Jon Lester may prove to be one of the more significant losses in
baseball. Boston’s 2014 team ERA was 4.01, good for 23rd in
the majors. Take Jon Lester’s production out of that equation, and
their final team ERA would have finished at 4.17, which would have put them as
the third worst pitching staff in the American League. While
this is not an 100% accurate portrayal of how the Red Sox staff would have
faired without Lester for a full season, it does portray how big of a role
Lester played in the Sox organization.
With
the exception of Rick Porcello, not a single starting pitcher slated for the
2015 season sported an ERA under 4.00. Clay Buchholz was downright
terrible, Felix Doubront was relegated to bullpen duty, and Ruby De La Rosa and
Brandon Workman were not much better. Another offseason addition,
Wade Miley, while pitching 200+ innings in 33 starts, sported a 4.34 ERA and a
1.401 WHIP. Justin Masterson hopes to have a bounce back year after
posting a 5.88 ERA in 25 starts in 2014, but that will be tough given the
offensive prowess of teams like the Orioles and Blue Jays.
There
has been some talk of the Red Sox exploring a blockbuster trade for
Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels, but there has not been much movement on
that front and the lefty remains a Philly. If Boston were to add Hamels
to their group, they will be in significantly better shape starting pitching
wise for the season, but as they are currently built, starting pitching
is possibly the worst in the division.
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| Who will join Tazawa in a depleted bullpen? (60ft6in) |
Their
bullpen outlook does not bode well, either. Their best bullpen arm,
Andrew Miller, is with their pinstriped rivals and Koji Uehara is quickly
approaching either retirement or a return to Japan. Eduard Mujica, once a
Baltimore free agent target, struggled to a 3.90 ERA and 10.4 hits per nine
innings going into the final year of his two year contract. Right hander
Junichi Tazawa looks like the only bright spot of the bullpen following the
departure of Burke Badenhop to Cincinnati. The good thing for Boston is
that, sometimes, bullpens find success despite what the stats might suggest (see:
2012 Baltimore Orioles). It seems as if the Boston pen will need to catch
lightning in a bottle in order to be effective in 2015.
What
Boston does have going for them in 2015 is what looks to be a stellar offense
on paper. Both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez move from pitcher
friendly parks to right handed hitters' paradise Fenway Park. David Ortiz
has shown little to no signs of slowing down power wise from the DH position,
and young studs Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts are itching to live up
to what was expected from them coming out of the minor leagues. While not
the best lineup top to bottom as it currently stands, the middle part of that
order could be one of the most fearsome in all of baseball.
But,
is the baseball world too quick to anoint this offense as one of the best in
the game? Let's take a look at a few numbers:
Pablo
Sandoval has proven to be an utter force in the playoffs. In three years
of postseason play, Sandoval has posted a slash line of .344/.389/.545 with 6
home runs and 20 RBI. That slash line is absolutely unheard of and it's
not hard to see why he was so loved in San Francisco. However, his
regular season numbers look a bit different. Here are Pablo's slash lines
from the last 4 seasons:
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
2011
|
.315
|
.357
|
.552
|
.909
|
2012
|
.283
|
.342
|
.447
|
.789
|
2013
|
.278
|
.341
|
.417
|
.758
|
2014
|
.279
|
.324
|
.415
|
.739
|
As
you can see, follwing a great 2011 campaign, Sandoval has seen a yearly decline
in OPS. While still an above average hitter at the plate, he certainly is
not the offensive powerhouse that arrives come playoff time.
Sandoval
does sport the advantage of being a switch hitter, which does not allow other
teams to match up accordingly. He also has been know to spray his hits
across all fields, making him dangerous from both sides of the plate, though he
hits significantly better from the left side. The big question for
Sandoval's bat going into the 2015 season is what will have more influence in
his production, moving to hitter friendly Fenway or his declining stats?
Only time will tell.
Hanley
Ramirez's bat may be poised for a good season as well. Even with the
infamous Green Monster in left field, Fenway Park is a right handed hitter's
delight. As you can see from the home run spray chart to the right,
Ramirez should have no trouble hitting the ball out of Fenway.
Hanley is coming off another strong season from the plate, batting .283/.369/.448 in 128 games. In 2013, Ramirez was putting up MVP caliber numbers before succumbing to yet another injury. If he can remain healthy for a full season, Ramirez could be a force in the AL East. That's the trouble, however: staying healthy. Since 2011, Hanley has not seen a full season on the field in three of four years. With the potential for Boston's rotation to struggle mightily, it is imperative for Ramirez to stay healthy and help the offense produce.
The other big names in this lineup are former MVP Dustin Pedroia and ageless wonder David Ortiz. While Ortiz had his lowest OPS since 2009, he still managed to slug 35 home runs and drive in 104. Every year, we question whether or not Ortiz's age will finally catch up with him, and every year (save an injury ridden 2012) he continues to produce at a high level. But, we have to ask: will this be the year his age will be a factor? How long can he produce at this level? Just like Sandoval, only time will tell, but for now we'll have to assume he will continue to be a fearsome hitter.
 |
| Can the shortest man in the world return to form? (Counting Baseballs) |
Despite the declines of three major stars, the Red Sox offense still has one of the more fearsome middle lineups in the game. Their AL East rivals will have their hands full when Boston is in the opposing dugout.
In the third facet of the game, however, the Red Sox are not so stellar. Pedroia is still playing second base at an elite level, but every other position outside of center field (assuming Jackie Bradley, Jr. get the nod) holds an average or below average defender. Converted catcher Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Xander Bogaerts, and Pablo Sandoval all sported below average range factors per game in 2014. Young catcher Christian Vazquez, while throwing out 52% of base stealers, had eight past balls despite only playing 54 games behind the plate. Then we get to left field, which is where it gets really interesting.
The above image is a screenshot of the defensive
positions played by Hanley Ramirez. A quick look at Boston's posted
40-man roster and...
Hanley Ramirez, a 10 year veteran of the infield, will be the Boston Red Sox starting left fielder. I have to admit, it is an intriguing idea, however there is reason why any baseball fan should think that this move will work out. Ramirez was a below average fielder at his natural shortstop position and proved to be one of the laziest defenders in the game, which is reflected in his range factors. Not only that, but left field requires a completely new set of defensive skills. He has to learn to properly track fly balls, take correct routes, and properly play hits off of the monster. There is a very good chance that, at best, the Red Sox have another Manny Ramirez out in left field, and we all know what that was like:
2015 Season Prediction
Despite having one of the more active offseasons in Major League Baseball, the Boston Red Sox still find themselves with a flurry of "ifs" going into the 2015 season. The 2013 champs may revive their status as an offensive powerhouse, however their questionable defense and more than questionable pitching will ultimately come back to haunt them. With the way this team is currently built, it is hard to put them as favorites in the American League East. It is likely that the team will improve on their 2014 season, but I find it hard to see them winning more than 82 games. If the Boston Red Sox want to compete in 2015, they're going to have to find their 2013 magic touch and a whole lot more pitching.
2015 Record Prediction: 79-83, 4th in AL East
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