Will the AL East flag fly north for the winter?

Over the next few days, we will be previewing the upcoming season for the five teams of the American League East, ending with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Next up, the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays

2014 Record: 83-79

3^rd in AL East

2014 Season Review:

Heartache. That is the only word that can be used to describe the feeling in Toronto over the past two seasons. After tearing the proverbial roof off of the offseason prior to the 2013 season, the Jays stumbled to an embarrassing last place finish with a stacked roster that should have made a World Series run. Last year, things seemed to finally fall into place after the team got off to a torrid start, including 20+ wins in the month of May. But that familiar feeling of disappointment returned as the team faded down the stretch. The front office inexplicably did nothing at last year’s trade deadline, despite splurging prior to 2013, and making some big moves again this offseason. Players were frustrated and an air of defeat seemed to consume the team as they faded drastically in August and September.

Disappointment has been the name of the game for Blue Jays
fans the past two seasons, as they continue to wait for the team's
first playoff berth in 22 years. (Photo credit: Globe & Mail)

Things were made even worse when the Kansas City Royals made their improbable World Series run, leaving Toronto as the only major league team without a playoff appearance in the Wild Card era.

The season was not without bright spots though. Jose Bautista was his usual dominant and reliable self; Edwin Encarnacion hit 34 homeruns despite missing a month with a quad injury; Mark Buehrle started the season 10-1;  and the season saw the emergence of young pitchers Marcus Strohman and Aaron Sanchez, who have the organization and its fans salivating for the future.

Key Losses

Brett Lawrie, 3B

Brett Lawrie was a paradox. The team and fans loved his pedal-to-the-metal fire, but it was that same fire that often rubbed people the wrong way and got him into trouble. Throw in the fact that he could not keep himself on the field and it was hard to figure out what the Jays had in him. He was surprisingly traded to Oakland this offseason for Josh Donaldson, in a deal that included prospects. Fans were initially upset by the news, but I think Lawrie’s replacement will leave them pleased in the long run.

Casey Janssen, RP

This one is tough to figure out, especially given that Janssen signed with the Nationals on a 1 year, $5M deal with an option for 2016. Janssen has been a rock at the back of a sometimes-shaky Jays pen for the last 4 seasons and the Nationals got him at a bargain. Why the Blue Jays wouldn’t match that offer doesn’t make much sense. His numbers climbed a bit last season but were still respectable, and from 2011-2013, never had an ERA above 2.56 or a WHIP higher than 1.10. Throw in their apparent lack of bullpen depth and they may be kicking themselves for letting Janssen leave.

Adam Lind, 1B

Lind improved on his strong 2013 season, posting a line of .321/.381/.479. Problem was he only played in 96 games due to injuries. With a $7.5M price tag for the coming season, the Blue Jays felt it not wise to gamble on a full healthy season from Lind and traded him to Milwaukee for pitcher Marco Estrada.

J.A. Happ, SP

Happ was traded to Seattle to acquire Michael Saunders. Happ was dependable, but mediocre in his time with Toronto. With the Jays current stable of starters, he likely won’t be missed.

Brandon Morrow, SP

Morrow signed a contract with the Padres in the offseason, ending a tumultuous career with the Jays that saw absolutely jaw-dropping performances frequently mixed with vomit-inducing performances and DL stints.

Key Additions

Russell Martin, C

Russell Martin brings lofty expectations
of a post-season return to Toronto.

Called by some the most influential signing of the offseason in all of baseball, I might be inclined to agree. There’s no question the Jays can bash with the big boys, but next to injuries, inconsistent pitching has dogged them the last few years. Martin is known for being able to get the most out of his pitchers, and with a relatively young staff, he should work the magic necessary to get the Jays over the hump this season. His .290/.402/.430 slash line from last year doesn’t hurt, and the power allies in Toronto should be kind to his doubles totals.

Josh Donaldson, 3B

Acquired from Oakland in the Brett Lawrie trade, Donaldson gives Toronto one of the best young third basemen in the game. He brings good defense, which will be tested on Rogers Centre’s turf, and a powerful bat that should shine in the Dome. This pickup signifies how serious the Jays are about putting the bad taste of the past two seasons out of their collective mouths.

Marco Estrada, SP

Estrada is likely only here to keep a rotation spot warm for Aaron Sanchez. He allowed an astounding 29 homers in 150 innings with Milwaukee last year, which can only mean one thing – fans in the bleachers at Rogers Centre better bring a helmet.

Justin Smoak

Smoak is a low-risk, high-reward guy who wasn’t realizing his potential in Seattle. He will see time at first base to spot Encarnacion and his switch-hitting ability will give John Gibbons some good late-game PH matchups. His power should see a resurgence in Toronto.

2015 Season Outlook

Living north of the border, I definitely feel some empathy for Blue Jays fans. The last two years, in addition to the long playoff drought, have produced a level of disappointment I’m all too familiar with in my life as an Orioles fan. After two straight seasons of “This is our year!” optimism, the Jays and their fans are banking the third time is a charm.

The Blue Jays swap of third basemen with the Athletics proves
that GM Alex Anthopoulos is done messing around. Will it put
the Jays over the top?     

On paper, that optimism is well-founded. In 2013, the Jays won the offseason, but many wondered how the big acquisitions would all mesh. They never found their footing, dealing with injuries and poor performances, and tumbled to the cellar. Last year they were primed and hungry, but injuries derailed them again. At one point in their mid-season slide, Bautista, Encarnacion, Lawrie and Lind were all on the DL at the same time. Throw in the Front Office’s inexplicable failure to make any moves at the deadline to help a team that was just 3 games out, and the ship sank fast and heavy.

So what’s different this season? Two words: Russell Martin. There are many reasons for optimism in the Great White North this season, and we’ll get into them, but Martin is the key. Dioner Navarro more than held his own last season, hitting over .300 and doing a decent job with the pitching staff. Martin, however, is known for having a Midas touch behind the plate. His pitch framing ability and work with young pitchers have been praised, which is music to the ears of a franchise expecting big things from young pitchers Stroman, Sanchez and Drew Hutchison. The club must decide what to do with Navarro, at $5M, but right now he has DH potential and would likely be the best backup catcher in baseball, giving the Jays no qualms about getting Martin some rest when necessary.

Lawrie will be missed, but Donaldson brings some thunder, having hit 20+ homers and 90+ RBI in the cavernous O.co Coliseum each of the last two seasons. His average tumbled a bit last year, but no doubt he’s salivating over the Rogers Centre. His 30+ doubles each of the last 2 seasons could push 50 in his new surroundings. Throw in his solid glove and improved emotional maturity over Lawrie, and the Jays should be greatly improved. Donaldson finished second to Mike Trout in total WAR for position players last season, and third behind Trout and Carlos Gomez in 2013.

The Jays have a few possibilities in their pitching rotation this season, but the top 4 are likely set in stone. R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are locks and if they repeat their 2014 campaigns (3.71 and 3.39 ERAs respectively), the Blue Jays will more than take it. Stroman and Hutchison will be 3-4. Stroman was quite the find last season when he burst on the scene, posting an 11-6 record in 20 starts after moving to the rotation from the bullpen. Hutchison showed flashes of brilliance but was dogged by inconsistency and must find balance to succeed. With Happ being traded, Morrow leaving via FA and McGowan still on the market, Estrada will likely keep the #5 spot warm for Sanchez, though Sanchez could force the team’s hand with a lights-out spring.

With Janssen and McGowan gone, Brett Cecil and Sanchez likely lead the charge in the bullpen to start the season. Steve Delabar, and youngsters Kyle Drabek and Daniel Norris could see some action there, but this will be the team’s biggest question mark heading into spring training.

Second base is the only other glaring hole, which is why the Lawrie trade surprised many. The team traded up at 3B, no question, but they still have a glaring hole on the right side of the infield. For now, the job belongs to Ryan Goins or the returning Maicer Izturus, but another option may be needed as the season progresses. Justin Smoak was brought in to potentially help keep Encarnacion fresh at first base and Danny Valencia provides a solid match-up option at the corner infield spots and DH.

Manager John Gibbons will likely have to manage differently than in previous years, with so many potential young and moving parts, but it’s a good problem to have. The team MUST avoid injuries to compete. Whether it’s the Rogers Centre turf or poor conditioning within the organization, injuries have crippled the Jays the last few years, and at the worst possible times. Gibbons must find a way to keep players fresh while not compromising the team’s ability to compete. This team has potential and in my mind is the biggest threat to the Orioles quest to repeat as division champs.

My prediction: an 88-90 win season for the Jays, with Jays fans getting to witness October baseball north of the border for the first time in 22 years.

--Christopher Mills, cjmills82