OTW's 2016 Predictions

IT'S THAT TIME FOLKS!! The start of a new season, when our experts put forth their awful predictions that betray their true ignorance of all things baseball. Who will be the least awful of them all? Check back in October, when three of our members will take a public walk of shame and allow you, our readers, to hold them accountable.* So without further ado, sit back and enjoy the ride that is the 2016 MLB season. As always, we welcome your criticism (or Christopher's case, praise) for our stellar predictions.

*This probably won't actually happen

STANDINGS:

Christopher's Picks
AL East:	Yankees	Blue Jays	Orioles	Red Sox	Rays
AL Central:	Royals	Indians	Tigers	Twins	White Sox
AL West:	Rangers	Astros	Mariners	Angels	Athletics
NL East:	Nationals	Mets	Marlins	Phillies	Braves
NL Central:	Cubs	Pirates	Cardinals	Reds	Brewers
NL West:	D'Backs	Giants	Dodgers	Rockies	Padres
AL Wildcards:	Blue Jays	Astros
NL Wildcards:	Pirates	Giants
ALCS:	Rangers over Astros
NLCS:	Cubs over D'backs
World Series:	Cubs over Rangers
Matt's Picks
AL East:	Yankees	Orioles	Blue Jays	Red Sox	Rays
AL Central:	Royals	Tigers	White Sox	Twins	Indians
AL West:	Rangers	Astros	Angels	Mariners	Athletics
NL East:	Nationals	Mets	Marlins	Phillies	Braves
NL Central:	Cubs	Cardinals	Pirates	Reds	Brewers
NL West:	Giants	D'Backs	Dodgers	Padres	Rockies
AL Wildcards:	Orioles	Astros
NL Wildcards:	Mets	D'Backs
ALCS:	Rangers over Royals
NLCS:	Cubs over Nationals
World Series:	Rangers over Cubs
Nathan's Picks
AL East:	Blue Jays	Yankees	Orioles	Red Sox	Rays
AL Central:	Royals	Twins	Tigers	Indians	White Sox
AL West:	Astros	Rangers	Angels	Athletics	Mariners
NL East:	Mets	Nationals	Marlins	Phillies	Braves
NL Central:	Cubs	Cardinals	Pirates	Reds	Brewers
NL West:	Dodgers	Giants	D'Backs	Rockies	Padres
AL Wildcards:	Yankees	Orioles
NL Wildcards:	Cardinals	Giants
ALCS:	Royals over Blue Jays
NLCS:	Mets over Cubs
World Series:	Royals over Mets
Pat's Picks
AL East:	Orioles	Blue Jays	Yankees	Red Sox	Rays
AL Central:	Tigers	Royals	Indians	Twins	White Sox
AL West:	Astros	Rangers	Angels	Mariners	Athletics
NL East:	Nationals	Mets	Marlins	Philles	Braves
NL Central:	Cubs	Pirates	Cardinals	Brewers	Reds
NL West:	Dodgers	D'Backs	Giants	Padres	Rockies
AL Wildcards:	Blue Jays	Royals
NL Wildcards:	Mets	Pirates
ALCS:	Orioles over Astros
NLCS:	Cubs over Pirates
World Series:	Orioles over Cubs

AWARDS: 

		Christopher	Matt	Nathan	Pat
AL MVP		Machado	Correa	Trout	Machado
NL MVP		Harper	Harper	Harper	Harper
AL Cy Young		Hamels	Sale	Keuchel	Richards
NL Cy Young		Cole	Cole	Kershaw	Greinke
AL Manager of the Year		Hinch	Bannister	Molitor	Ausmus
NL Manager of the Year		Maddon	Baker	Maddon	Baker
AL Rookie of the Year		Shaw	Bundy	Gutierrez	Rickard
NL Rookie of the Year		Seager	Seager	Maeda	Matz

BOLD Predictions:

In addition to our regular predictions, each of our writers came up with three bold predictions for the coming season. We'll leave it to you to decide how bold they really are.

Christopher:
1. Bryce Harper will win the Triple Crown
2. Chris Davis will break his own Orioles homerun record
3. A pitcher will win 25 games

Matt:
1. Dylan Bundy stays healthy all year
2. Pedro Alvarez hits the warehouse
3. Cano gets traded

Nathan:
1. The Cubs will not win the World Series
2. Houston will win the AL West by 15 games
3. 19 year old Anthony Simonsen unseats Jason Belmonte as PBA Player of the Year*

*This may or may not be an MLB prediction

Pat:
1. Andrew Cashner will be traded to the Orioles at the deadline
2. David Price will have an ERA over 3.50
3. Josh Donaldson will be ejected from no less than 3 games for being totally insufferable

The Buck stops...where?

Sitting here watching the Orioles attempt to painfully surrender any hope of reaching the post season, I’m reminded of frustrations past – a late season collapse in 2013 and…well, any season from 1998-2011. But with those teams you could at least see it coming. The team had weaknesses and certain things were just not sustainable. While both of those may factor in this season, that should not be the case.

I know everyone will point to the losses of Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz (which were sizeable, no question), but even then, on paper at least, the Orioles were still the deepest team in the AL East entering the season. And though he’s disappeared lately, Jimmy Paredes did a fine job of making us forget all about Nelson Cruz the first two months of the season.

Buck Showalter has long been recognized as one of the most
intelligent and meticulous baseball minds, but his career has
been marked by a seeming inability to find an effective way
to motivate his players.                                                               

While there is plenty of finger pointing to go around (from Dan Duquette’s decision to replace his departing FAs with a plethora of AAAA outfielders, to key players like Paredes, Miguel Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez completely imploding in the second half), I think a sizeable amount of the blame for this season falls squarely on the shoulders of one man – and it’s not going to make me popular, I know. The reality is, a lot of the issues this season can be traced to Buck Showalter.

Now before you go flying off the deep end, hear me out. And I will also say up front that I like Buck. He has done some fantastic things since he arrived, but I think the turnaround he brought has also masked some of his deficiencies. 

In each of Buck’s past managerial stops, his teams went to the World Series almost immediately after he departed as manager. The Yankees ( 1996) and the Diamondbacks (2001) both won it the season after his departure.  The Rangers never finished higher than 3^rd in his tenure, and after a last place finish the year after he left, they posted back to back 2^nd place finishes before back to back World Series appearances.  So what’s the problem?

In Buck’s previous stops, he had a reputation for being a hardass. He would ban music and games from the clubhouse and was really strict with players. Clearly that is not the case in Baltimore, but I would argue he has gone to the opposite extreme, to the detriment of the ball club. It seems he is so afraid of repeating the mistakes of the past that he refuses to hold his players accountable or dole out any discipline to players who fail to perform or who repeat the same mistakes ad nauseum. Picture that parent who is so obsessed with being their child’s best friend that they allow them to get away with anything rather than discipline them and be seen as the bad guy. Rarely, you may get a child who behaves anyway and does things right, but more often than not, you get undisciplined and poorly behaved children. That’s what I see in Baltimore right now – a lack of discipline. When your star player comes out and says that the team doesn’t get frustrated or disappointed by losses, that’s a big problem. Is it supposed to reflect well on a team that playing poorly and getting beat doesn’t inspire any negative feelings?

The reality is, whether being too hard or too soft on his players, Buck has a weakness when it comes to finding an effective way to motivate his players. This team has consistently displayed a lack of fire this season. I have no doubts they want to win, but they don’t seem to care if they lose. It’s almost the old Little League mantra of “doesn’t matter if we win or lose, as long as we have fun and try hard.” Sorry, but no. This is the major leagues – winning matters.

This is why look at Showalter. I appreciate that he’s calm overall and realizes it’s a 162 game season; no one should get riled up over each loss or bounce off the ceiling with joy after each win – it’s a marathon, not a sprint as Buck likes to say, and on that point I agree.

My problem arises with the fact that Showalter NEVER seems to get angry or fired up. And when players see a manager who is always calm, cool and collected, even after embarrassing losses or long stretches of poor play, they’re going to adopt the same attitude. In what other profession would a boss sit back and pat his employees on the back for a screw-up or a series of poor performances and continue to offer words of encouragement? That’s not how the world works.

I actually had a prominent member of the Baltimore media tell me last year that these are grown men and you don’t discipline grown men. That’s the most preposterous thing I’ve heard in a long time. I’m not saying call them out publicly or humiliate them, but a manager should be laying into the team every now and then when they’re playing poorly to light a fire under them. The fire always seems to be missing from this team because the manager never ignites it. Buck never fires up his players, you don’t win a World Series without that fire and passion, and Buck has never won a World Series – oversimplifying a bit? Maybe, but there’s a connection in there.

A manager is a boss and the players are his employees. He should definitely try to get along with them and connect with them on a meaningful level to earn their trust, but his sole responsibility is getting the most out of his players so they win ballgames; not to try and be their best friend so they won’t get mad at him.

The thing about that “best friend” parent is that for a while they seem cool and people like them – but after a while, respect is lost and people realize the approach just doesn’t work. If this team has any hope of salvaging a playoff berth this season, their leader needs to start holding them accountable and doing whatever he has to do to light that championship fire – going out every night and going through the motions does not and will not cut it. Players need to be held accountable for poor defense, repeatedly poor plate discipline, poor ABs with no regard for game situation, etc. I've seen issues with this team and with certain players throughout the season (and even into past seasons) that continue to occur and don't even seem to get addressed, much less dealt with. 

I’m by no means calling for Buck’s head, but he needs to make some changes to his approach with his players, or he will wear out his welcome in Baltimore sooner rather than later. And he may just wind up taking a back row seat while another one of his former teams makes a run for the trophy.

--Christopher Mills
   @OriolesOTW

The Master Architect begins his annual June shuffle

An obvious trend has emerged in Dan Duquette’s time as General Manager (sorry, Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations) with the Orioles. In a pattern that has annually tested what little patience Orioles fans have, Duquette has crafted an Opening Day roster and stayed the course through the season’s first two months, determined to assess his roster and know what he has before making any concrete decisions moving forward. He and Buck Showalter give players ample opportunity to seize a place in the everyday lineup/starting rotation and run with it – and if not, they fall victim to the June purge.

Though receiving plenty of flack over the last few years for periods of apparent inactivity, Duquette always seems to acquire the right piece/make the right move at the right time to fuel the Orioles fire and set the team on a course for the postseason.

Now that’s not to say nothing ever happens after June – the additions of Manny Machado and Jim Thome in 2012, the additions of Scott Feldman and Bud Norris in 2013 and the addition of Andrew Miller last season all took place later on – but June 1 seems to be that date when Duquette begins to weed out the weak links in the chain and fortify the roster for the long haul.

Don’t believe me? Look at the Orioles records before and after June 1 since Duquette came on board:

           Before June 1     June 1 onward

2012:       29-22                   64-47

2013:       31-24                   54-53

2014:       27-27                   69-39

2015:       23-26                     11-5

In 2012, 2014 and so far in 2015 (though the sample size is limited so far), the team has shown a drastic improvement after June 1. The only exception was 2013, when the team faded badly in September and was unable to sustain their strong start, but the trend of beginning the roster retooling still continued.

So far this year, the return of Matt Wieters has provided a spark to an offense that struggled badly in May (they are 11-2 since his return), and I don’t think Duquette is done. Alejandro De Aza and Everth Cabrera have already been shown the door due to inconsistent play and the strong play of Travis Snider and Ryan Flaherty respectively. And believe me folks, there is more to come, especially with newcomer Chris Parmelee recently exploding onto the scene from Norfolk.

Internally, the Orioles can likely count on Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Schoop providing a significant boost to the team in the second half, with Pearce and possibly others on the hot seat. Mike Wright has also shown potential and could feature in the team’s plans as well.

The Orioles are also in the unique position where they could be a team that both buys and sells at the deadline. The Orioles have many pending FAs and some good pitching depth, so they could trade some of those pending FAs to bring in a masher to man LF or RF – although that may not be needed if Nolan Reimold stays healthy.

It’s all but a certainty that Matt Wieters, Chris Davis or Darren O’Day will not be traded this season. They are too important to the Orioles playoff hopes. Bud Norris is probably the most likely to go, but how much value would he bring back at this point? He has really minimized his value with his poor performances this season. Tommy Hunter is also a possibility, as the O’s have bullpen depth and he likely will not be back next season.

In my opinion, and I’ll probably get flack for this, the Orioles best trade chip is Wei-Yin Chen. He has been solid this season and would likely fetch a good return on the open market. Chen is probably going to be priced out of the Orioles plans this offseason, so why not trade him now and get a good return that could help them down the stretch? Given the most recent roster moves, with Chen potentially unhappy, it may be time for Dan to start pursuing this avenue. The Orioles have options in Gausman and Wright who could step in and fill the void. They may not put up Chen like numbers, but they are capable of coming close and, with an improved offense, would not hurt the Orioles playoff chances.

Regardless of where the team goes from here, Dan Duquette has once again proven that, despite what fans think, he’s not sitting around doing nothing. Just because it may appear he’s sitting back and watching the team flounder early in the season, doesn’t mean he’s not already mentally retooling his roster. He’s always aware of what’s going on, has a fantastic eye for bargains (2012 Nate McLouth, 2013 Danny Valencia, 2014 Steve Pearce, 2015 Jimmy Paredes, etc.) and makes the necessary tweaks to improve the team, while at the same time making sure to maintain the core and not disrupt the chemistry of the clubhouse.

June is off to a good start so far, and I assure you, this will be one of the most exciting seasons yet given all the roster and trade possibilities and directions the Orioles could go in.

So as they say in Birdland…BUCKLE UP! The Orioles success is far from over.

-- Christopher Mills 

    @OriolesOTW

#VoteAnything

Okay, I’ve held out long enough. It’s time for an OTW Public Service Announcement. And yes, this is primarily directed at you, Royals fans.

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you know that eight – yes, EIGHT – members of the Kansas City Royals are on track to start the All-Star Game for the American League. So far only Michael Nelson Trout has been fortunate enough to escape their maniacal fandom.

This year’s voting highlights the problem of blanket votes for one’s team of choice (#VoteOrange, anyone?). I’m a HUGE Orioles fan but by no means do I want to see Ryan Flaherty starting the All-Star Game over the likes of Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve or Jason Kipnis.

I understand voting is fun and everyone wants to support their team, but the ASG isn’t about supporting your team or creating a popularity contest. It’s meant to be a showcase of baseball’s best players in that particular season. And as much as I love Omar Infante…well, just no.

So what’s to be done? The sad fact is that this irresponsible voting of fans who only want to support their players (yes, I said irresponsible) has led to the current debacle. If nothing changes this year, and all these Royals players are in the starting lineup in Cincinnati on July 14, we’re facing the serious possibility of all fans losing their voting privileges.

Kansas City Royals fans are certainly making their voices heard.
But is it good for baseball?

There is debate every year over whether or not fans should keep the vote or not and it’s clear that they cannot be counted on to pick the most deserving players on their own.

So how can the system be fixed? Luckily I’m here to help you, MLB. Follow these easy steps and the ASG will be the event it’s intended to be.

1)      Stop releasing the ballot in April/early May. There’s no way to tell that early who the season’s stars are yet. All you’re doing is promoting this “vote for everyone on my team!” mentality. Wait until June 1 to release the ballot.

2)      Release a ballot with the 5 best players at each position. This way fans still get to select the starters, but we’re guaranteed to get starters who are at very least marginally deserving. (Amendment: if you opt to keep the current system, give managers or the commissioner the right to veto any player they deem undeserving of an ASG start)

3)      Untie the ASG from home field advantage in the World Series. The ASG is an exhibition; a showcase. Who cares if it ends in a tie? Fans in Milwaukee saw 11 innings of high caliber baseball and complained because there was no final result, which landed us here. Yes, seeing a winner is nice, but that’s not the purpose of the ASG. The purpose is to see all the stars from across the league together in one game. If the teams happen to tie, that just means the leagues are balanced that year. Who cares? Making it competitive has actually taken some of the fun out of it and caused managers to use their players in a way that doesn't always allow fans to fully appreciate the appearance of their team's players. 

Beyond that, the only real solution is to take the vote away from fans. If that doesn’t bother you, by all means, use your last weeks of privilege to vote for undeserving players just because of the uniform they happen to wear.

Me? I’ll be voting for the players who have put up the best numbers so far this season; the players the ASG was meant to feature.

So if you have the guts, saddle up and join me…#VoteAnything.

--Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

Will the AL East flag fly north for the winter?

Over the next few days, we will be previewing the upcoming season for the five teams of the American League East, ending with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Next up, the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays

2014 Record: 83-79

3^rd in AL East

2014 Season Review:

Heartache. That is the only word that can be used to describe the feeling in Toronto over the past two seasons. After tearing the proverbial roof off of the offseason prior to the 2013 season, the Jays stumbled to an embarrassing last place finish with a stacked roster that should have made a World Series run. Last year, things seemed to finally fall into place after the team got off to a torrid start, including 20+ wins in the month of May. But that familiar feeling of disappointment returned as the team faded down the stretch. The front office inexplicably did nothing at last year’s trade deadline, despite splurging prior to 2013, and making some big moves again this offseason. Players were frustrated and an air of defeat seemed to consume the team as they faded drastically in August and September.

Disappointment has been the name of the game for Blue Jays
fans the past two seasons, as they continue to wait for the team's
first playoff berth in 22 years. (Photo credit: Globe & Mail)

Things were made even worse when the Kansas City Royals made their improbable World Series run, leaving Toronto as the only major league team without a playoff appearance in the Wild Card era.

The season was not without bright spots though. Jose Bautista was his usual dominant and reliable self; Edwin Encarnacion hit 34 homeruns despite missing a month with a quad injury; Mark Buehrle started the season 10-1;  and the season saw the emergence of young pitchers Marcus Strohman and Aaron Sanchez, who have the organization and its fans salivating for the future.

Key Losses

Brett Lawrie, 3B

Brett Lawrie was a paradox. The team and fans loved his pedal-to-the-metal fire, but it was that same fire that often rubbed people the wrong way and got him into trouble. Throw in the fact that he could not keep himself on the field and it was hard to figure out what the Jays had in him. He was surprisingly traded to Oakland this offseason for Josh Donaldson, in a deal that included prospects. Fans were initially upset by the news, but I think Lawrie’s replacement will leave them pleased in the long run.

Casey Janssen, RP

This one is tough to figure out, especially given that Janssen signed with the Nationals on a 1 year, $5M deal with an option for 2016. Janssen has been a rock at the back of a sometimes-shaky Jays pen for the last 4 seasons and the Nationals got him at a bargain. Why the Blue Jays wouldn’t match that offer doesn’t make much sense. His numbers climbed a bit last season but were still respectable, and from 2011-2013, never had an ERA above 2.56 or a WHIP higher than 1.10. Throw in their apparent lack of bullpen depth and they may be kicking themselves for letting Janssen leave.

Adam Lind, 1B

Lind improved on his strong 2013 season, posting a line of .321/.381/.479. Problem was he only played in 96 games due to injuries. With a $7.5M price tag for the coming season, the Blue Jays felt it not wise to gamble on a full healthy season from Lind and traded him to Milwaukee for pitcher Marco Estrada.

J.A. Happ, SP

Happ was traded to Seattle to acquire Michael Saunders. Happ was dependable, but mediocre in his time with Toronto. With the Jays current stable of starters, he likely won’t be missed.

Brandon Morrow, SP

Morrow signed a contract with the Padres in the offseason, ending a tumultuous career with the Jays that saw absolutely jaw-dropping performances frequently mixed with vomit-inducing performances and DL stints.

Key Additions

Russell Martin, C

Russell Martin brings lofty expectations
of a post-season return to Toronto.

Called by some the most influential signing of the offseason in all of baseball, I might be inclined to agree. There’s no question the Jays can bash with the big boys, but next to injuries, inconsistent pitching has dogged them the last few years. Martin is known for being able to get the most out of his pitchers, and with a relatively young staff, he should work the magic necessary to get the Jays over the hump this season. His .290/.402/.430 slash line from last year doesn’t hurt, and the power allies in Toronto should be kind to his doubles totals.

Josh Donaldson, 3B

Acquired from Oakland in the Brett Lawrie trade, Donaldson gives Toronto one of the best young third basemen in the game. He brings good defense, which will be tested on Rogers Centre’s turf, and a powerful bat that should shine in the Dome. This pickup signifies how serious the Jays are about putting the bad taste of the past two seasons out of their collective mouths.

Marco Estrada, SP

Estrada is likely only here to keep a rotation spot warm for Aaron Sanchez. He allowed an astounding 29 homers in 150 innings with Milwaukee last year, which can only mean one thing – fans in the bleachers at Rogers Centre better bring a helmet.

Justin Smoak

Smoak is a low-risk, high-reward guy who wasn’t realizing his potential in Seattle. He will see time at first base to spot Encarnacion and his switch-hitting ability will give John Gibbons some good late-game PH matchups. His power should see a resurgence in Toronto.

2015 Season Outlook

Living north of the border, I definitely feel some empathy for Blue Jays fans. The last two years, in addition to the long playoff drought, have produced a level of disappointment I’m all too familiar with in my life as an Orioles fan. After two straight seasons of “This is our year!” optimism, the Jays and their fans are banking the third time is a charm.

The Blue Jays swap of third basemen with the Athletics proves
that GM Alex Anthopoulos is done messing around. Will it put
the Jays over the top?     

On paper, that optimism is well-founded. In 2013, the Jays won the offseason, but many wondered how the big acquisitions would all mesh. They never found their footing, dealing with injuries and poor performances, and tumbled to the cellar. Last year they were primed and hungry, but injuries derailed them again. At one point in their mid-season slide, Bautista, Encarnacion, Lawrie and Lind were all on the DL at the same time. Throw in the Front Office’s inexplicable failure to make any moves at the deadline to help a team that was just 3 games out, and the ship sank fast and heavy.

So what’s different this season? Two words: Russell Martin. There are many reasons for optimism in the Great White North this season, and we’ll get into them, but Martin is the key. Dioner Navarro more than held his own last season, hitting over .300 and doing a decent job with the pitching staff. Martin, however, is known for having a Midas touch behind the plate. His pitch framing ability and work with young pitchers have been praised, which is music to the ears of a franchise expecting big things from young pitchers Stroman, Sanchez and Drew Hutchison. The club must decide what to do with Navarro, at $5M, but right now he has DH potential and would likely be the best backup catcher in baseball, giving the Jays no qualms about getting Martin some rest when necessary.

Lawrie will be missed, but Donaldson brings some thunder, having hit 20+ homers and 90+ RBI in the cavernous O.co Coliseum each of the last two seasons. His average tumbled a bit last year, but no doubt he’s salivating over the Rogers Centre. His 30+ doubles each of the last 2 seasons could push 50 in his new surroundings. Throw in his solid glove and improved emotional maturity over Lawrie, and the Jays should be greatly improved. Donaldson finished second to Mike Trout in total WAR for position players last season, and third behind Trout and Carlos Gomez in 2013.

The Jays have a few possibilities in their pitching rotation this season, but the top 4 are likely set in stone. R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are locks and if they repeat their 2014 campaigns (3.71 and 3.39 ERAs respectively), the Blue Jays will more than take it. Stroman and Hutchison will be 3-4. Stroman was quite the find last season when he burst on the scene, posting an 11-6 record in 20 starts after moving to the rotation from the bullpen. Hutchison showed flashes of brilliance but was dogged by inconsistency and must find balance to succeed. With Happ being traded, Morrow leaving via FA and McGowan still on the market, Estrada will likely keep the #5 spot warm for Sanchez, though Sanchez could force the team’s hand with a lights-out spring.

With Janssen and McGowan gone, Brett Cecil and Sanchez likely lead the charge in the bullpen to start the season. Steve Delabar, and youngsters Kyle Drabek and Daniel Norris could see some action there, but this will be the team’s biggest question mark heading into spring training.

Second base is the only other glaring hole, which is why the Lawrie trade surprised many. The team traded up at 3B, no question, but they still have a glaring hole on the right side of the infield. For now, the job belongs to Ryan Goins or the returning Maicer Izturus, but another option may be needed as the season progresses. Justin Smoak was brought in to potentially help keep Encarnacion fresh at first base and Danny Valencia provides a solid match-up option at the corner infield spots and DH.

Manager John Gibbons will likely have to manage differently than in previous years, with so many potential young and moving parts, but it’s a good problem to have. The team MUST avoid injuries to compete. Whether it’s the Rogers Centre turf or poor conditioning within the organization, injuries have crippled the Jays the last few years, and at the worst possible times. Gibbons must find a way to keep players fresh while not compromising the team’s ability to compete. This team has potential and in my mind is the biggest threat to the Orioles quest to repeat as division champs.

My prediction: an 88-90 win season for the Jays, with Jays fans getting to witness October baseball north of the border for the first time in 22 years.

--Christopher Mills, cjmills82

All Hail St. Peter

It’s late December 2013. It’s announced that the Orioles are close to signing Grant Balfour to a 2 year/$15M contract to replace departed closer Jim Johnson. O’s fans get giddy with excitement, anticipating another piece of the puzzle falling into place. But then…

Rumours begin to trickle out that Balfour has failed his physical. The rumours turn out to be true and several days later Orioles GM Dan Duquette announces a deal will not be happening. A large group of Orioles fans rage and media personnel start firing their shots, first blaming Duquette, then, deciding Dan is just a puppet, they move on to Satan himself – owner Peter Angelos. I heard it all that week.

“THE ORIOLES DON’T CARE ABOUT WINNING!”

“THE ORIOLES WILL NEVER WIN AS LONG AS ANGELOS OWNS THE TEAM!”

“ANGELOS IS CHEAP! HE WILL NEVER SPEND WHAT IT TAKES FOR THIS TEAM TO CONTEND!”

Those are some of the more tame quotes, but you get the idea.

Fast forward ten months. The Orioles are on the cusp of their first World Series berth in 31 years. As they prepare to face the Kansas City Royals in the ALCS, a surprising announcement comes through that the Orioles have extended short stop J.J. Hardy – 3 years/$40M, with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Owner of the Orioles for 21 years, Peter Angelos has taken a
lot of flack from fans and media. With the team's recent turn
around, it's time to finally give him the credit he deserves.

Now before we go any further, I want to make a few things clear. I am not an Angelos apologist. I do not think Angelos is a great owner (nor do I think he’s the devil incarnate). And I do not solely blame Angelos for all the years of losing in Baltimore. Poor decisions by GMs, terrible drafting and weak on-field managing contributed greatly. But now, here we are – Angelos still owns the team and yet they just completed a third winning season, making the playoffs for the second time in three years. And money is being spent.

Truth be told, I have no idea where the “Angelos is cheap!” rumours started. Maybe it was his refusal to pay Mike Mussina back in 2001 (definitely a black mark against him). Maybe it was all the years of losing. But if you look back, you will see that Peter Angelos has always spent money when it made sense to do so.

I understand that people wanted players like Vlad Guerrero (the first time), Mark Teixeira or AJ Burnett (also the first time), but they didn’t make sense at the time. As fans, it’s easy to spend money that is not ours, but spending $50M+ to go from a 68-win team to a 72-win team just isn't logical.

The Orioles were among the highest payrolls in baseball in the late 90s. They were second to the Yankees from 1995-97, first in 1998 and fifth in 1999. They made back to back ALCS appearances in ’96 and ’97 and likely would have returned to the playoffs in 1998 were it not for a slew of injuries. Then the wheels fell off.  For years it didn’t make sense to spend big money, but even then, Angelos decided to take a shot when he felt the O’s were close enough, committing over $125M to Miguel Tejada (a season removed from an MVP award), Javy Lopez, Sidney Ponson and Rafael Palmeiro before the 2004 season.

He signed Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and Adam Jones to long, wealthy extensions during the lean years.

This offseason, he gave the okay on a $52M deal for Ubaldo Jimenez (which admittedly hasn’t worked out so far) and $8M for Nelson Cruz – the biggest bargain in all of major league baseball this season.

That’s a lot of money spent over the years by a “cheap” owner. And dare we get into the deals that weren’t made?

Over the years, Angelos and the organization have drawn criticism for not signing the likes of Teixeira (how’s that working out for the Yanks the last couple season?), Carlos Delgado, Ivan Rodriguez, Prince Fielder, Burnett, Jayson Werth, Zack Greinke and this past offseason alone, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Bronson Arroyo, Burnett again, Jim Johnson and, of course, Grant Balfour.

Some of those players performed well on short deals, but most were either way too expensive or did not even come close to living up to their deals. Looking at the deals players from this past off-season received and how they performed, I’d say ol’ Pete is coming up roses. Ellsbury is the only guy who might eventually come close to being worth what he was given. None of the remaining players even finished the season, either due to injury or ineffectiveness.

I understand the emotions that come with being a fan, but restraint is needed. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t disappointed when the Balfour deal fell through, but the World Series is not won in November. As fans we need to be willing to let the process play out and see what the outcome is. As it turns out, Grant Balfour will have a comfy seat in front of his TV to potentially watch the Orioles play in the World Series.

I will say again, I am not a Peter Angelos apologist. I think he has some serious shortcomings as an owner, most notably the way he interacts (or doesn’t interact) with the fan base to create a more positive image for himself and more trust between his organization and the city that supports it. But there are far more brutal owners across baseball (and all pro sports) – owners who truly don’t care about winning, who pinch pennies because all their care about is squeezing every last bit of profit out of their teams, and who totally disregard their fans.

No matter how you feel about Angelos, he doesn’t fall into any of those three categories.

Over the last few years, I’ve heard so many people get credit for the winning seasons here in Baltimore – the players, Andy MacPhail, Buck Showalter, Dan Duquette, and so on, all very much deserved. But there’s one person missing from that list and after all the abuse and hatred he’s endured over the years, it’s high time he finally gets credit where it’s due.

As Orioles fans, it’s time we collectively tipped our cap to the man at the top - Peter Angelos.

--Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

Adam Jones =MVP

I think the Orioles could have the MVP winner in the AL. Not Mike Trout, nope. An Oriole. No I am not picking the Boomstick, Nelson Cruz. The Oriole I think should be MVP is Adam Jones.

How do we define what is the most valuable? It's subjective for sure. Is it simply the player that has the best numbers? Does being on a winning team really matter? Do we need to factor in things that just can't be measured? Adam Jones is an MVP for many reasons, both statistically and in other ways that can't be measured. First the ones that maybe can't be measured. The intangibles. The unique qualities he possesses that help fuel the team. The Orioles have seen All-Star Catcher Matt Wieters lost for the season (he was having his best year offensively), All-Star third baseman Manny Machado hurt to start the year, suspended and now gone for the year with an injury, JJ Hardy has only 9 home runs and Chris Davis is hitting in the .190's.

Photo Credit: zimbio.com

This has made what Adam Jones has done more valuable than anyone else. He has meant more to his team then anyone else. Yes Nelson Cruz has had a great year and helped a great deal. With his league leading 39 home runs, and 101 RBI's to boot. But Jones is by far the MVP of this team. With the injures and under-performances of key players the season that Jones is having is a big reason for the Orioles being where they are. He is the team's leader on and off the field. He never gets too down or high after a win or a loss. And the influence of his mentality of never giving up and constantly grinding everyday shows up throughout the team. He is the heart and soul of the team, and in many ways as he goes so does the team.

Statistically Jones is having a really good year. Hitting .286/.319/.463/.783  overall for the season, with 24 home runs and 81 RBI's. His 164 hits ranks 8^th in the American League. But the numbers that jump out at me for MVP are what he's done in “clutch” spots (and you know a great deal of the Orioles fan base thinks Jones isn't clutch? Good stuff). In wins, .340/.375/.568/.943 ( in losses .208/.236/.214/.549). With 2 outs (you know clutch) .305/.336/.493/.829. With Runners In Scoring Position ( something the entire team sucks at if you listen to Orioles fans on social media) .324/.359/.496/.855. Even more clutch,with 2 outs and RISP, .323/.364/.484/.848. Oh and he has 6 sac fly's, 15^th in the AL.

There is also Jones's defense. He has a .982 fielding percentage and 324 put outs, which is 8^th amongst all outfielders and 5^th in the American League. His 7 assists, rank 12th in the AL. His defensive WAR ( not a fan of WAR or UZR,but I will include them) is 8.9, and his UZR is 7.3, 4^th among CF's. He routinely cuts balls off and holds runners from taking an extra base. His defense has helped win games as much as his bat.

Turning a 3 run homer into a double play
Photo Credit: fansided.com

Now compare his numbers to Mr. Trout. Hitting .285/.370/.552/.922 with 32 home runs and 102 RBI's. His batting average is a point lower, and yes his OPS is better. And yeah he's got more homers and RBI. But, Jones has a batting average of .340 in wins vs Trout's .309. Also Jones is having a better season w/RISP and most notably with 2 outs and 2 outs w/RISP. Trout is hitting .199/.331/.288/.619  with 2 outs. And with 2 outs and RISP he is only hitting .213/.362/.298/.660. So he hasn't been as “clutch” in those spots as Jones has.

Trout is widely considered on of the better defenders in the game. The defensive metrics (which again I am not a fan of and don't at all understand how Trouts are this bad) show Trout to be having a bad year in the field. A defensive WAR of -5.4 and a UZR of -6.6, despite having a .994 fielding percentage,with 335 putouts and 4 assist.

Trout is on a team that has a future Hall of Famer in Albert Pujols, who, while not the same Albert, is still a force and having a good year. And yes Josh Hamilton has been hurt and is not having a great year. The Angels still have not had the players lost for year or under perform the way the Orioles have and Trout has not had to pick up as much slack as Jones has. The Angels pitching has also been really good this year and one could argue that someone like Garrett Richards is the Angels MVP more so than Trout.

The Champ...no MVP is here!!!

I know that Jones is behind Trout in almost every statistical category. But I feel with the players the Orioles have lost from their lineup and with some players having down years at the plate, what Jones has done for this team make him the most VAULABLE player. Without Jones's production I shudder to think where the Orioles would be this season. So factoring in Jones stats, the loss and under-performance of key players,and his gold glove defense, I would say Adam Jones is more valuable to the Orioles, a first place team that would not be in first without him, than Mike Trout is to the Angels. 

-Matt Baggette @mlb930

Giving MacPhail a passing grade

As the Orioles march on with a third straight winning season, more than likely a second trip to the playoffs in those three seasons, and maybe even their first division title since 1997, there is a lot of credit to give. Buck Showalter is a fantastic manager and has helped changed the culture. Dan Duquette has done a good job adding depth and making some solid trades and lower-risk free agent deals. And of course he got Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez in free agency this past offseason.

But there is another person that deserves a good deal of credit for this current team. None other than former Orioles GM Andy MacPhail.

Andy MacPhail took over running the Orioles in June of 2007. He inherited a team that was not very good on the field, had not seen a winning season since 1997, and had a minor league system in disrepair. I mean, look at this roster from 2007 and it's craptasticness.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2007.shtml

MacPhail went about trying to fix a broken franchise. He said he wanted to improve the Orioles farm system and their lack of a presence in the international market. The first big thing MacPhail was involved in was the signing of draft pick Matt Wieters. The draft had taken place just before he took over. The Orioles first pick was catcher Matt Wieters, whose agent was Scott Boras. Boras was someone the Orioles had never liked dealing with. MacPhail was able to get Wieters signed right before the deadline. Orioles fans could breathe a little easier that a player they hoped would be a cornerstone was signed.

He then went and decided that after looking over what the Orioles had in the minor leagues, he was going to have to make some trades to jump start the farm system. In December 2007 MacPhail traded away shortstop Miguel Tejada. Tejada was traded to the Houston Astros for 5 players: Luke Scott, Troy Patton, Matt Albers, Denis Sarfarte, and Mike Costanzo. This was a big deal that traded arguably the team's best player away. All but Costanzo played for the Orioles. Luke Scott had some decent years. Troy Patton eventually came up and was a contributor to the 2012 playoff team. Albers and Sarfarte had mixed results and both were gone within a couple of years.

The next thing MacPhail did may be the most significant thing he did and that happened to the Orioles in the past decade. In February of 2008, he traded the Orioles' best starting pitcher, Erik Bedard, to Seattle for 5 more players: Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherill, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Butler. Only Bulter wouldn't see time as an Oriole.

This was a big step. The Orioles had traded their best position player and starting pitcher in the course of three months. Some fans wondered how the Orioles could trade their best pitcher; not many were as upset about Tejada as he had been saying he wanted to be traded. No one could know how well the Bedrad trade would turn out.

It is one of the best trades the Orioles, or dare I say it, any team has made. Jones looked to be a promising young outfielder. And, hey, his name was the same as the guitarist for the rock band Tool ( my favorite band!!). I saw that as nothing but a good sign. Tillman was rated highly and looked to be a good starting pitching prospect. Mickolio had the makings of a future closer. And Sherrill was a major league player. Three of the players the Orioles got in the trade have made at least one all star team (Sherrill, Jones, and Tillman). Jones is now the face of the team and a perennial all star and gold glover. Tillman has established himself as a front of the rotation starter. If that wasn't enough the Bedard trade is the trade that kept on giving. Sherrill was traded for Josh Bell and Steve Johnson. Mickolio (with David Hernandez) was traded for Mark Reynolds.

In January of 2009 MacPhail made on his promise to improve the Orioles presence in the international market. Koji Uehara was signed. Though Koji had a mixed amount of success as an Oriole, it was a big step forward. Later, in January and February, MacPhail made sure two of the Orioles home grown players were not going anywhere. Nick Markakis signed a 6 year, $66 million deal and Brian Roberts signed a 4 year, $40 million deal. This was a real positive sign. The Orioles were able to keep their own stars in place.

A small trade MacPhail would make at the end of spring training 2009 that would later help the team was sending Hayden Penn to the Marlins for Robert Andino. Andino would later drive in the winning run on the last day of the season in 2011 to knock the Red Sox out of the playoffs, a moment many point to as the start of things for what would follow in 2012.

In February of 2010, the Orioles opened their new spring training facility. MacPhail had a hand in getting this done as well. It was a must for the team moving forward. Their spring training facilities had become more and more unbearable. Now the team had a wonderful place to start the year.

In July of 2010 another significant move was made in the hiring of Buck Showalter as manager. This was the first time since Mike Hargrove had been the manager that the team had a manager that had previous experience in MLB. The team played well the rest of 2010. Things were looking up.

In the offseaon MacPhail continued his ability to make great trades. He traded Brett Jacobson, who had been acquired in 2009 for Aubrey Huff, to the Twins along with Jim Hoey for JJ Hardy. Then Mark Reynolds was added for David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. At the July trading deadline in 2011 another great trade was made, sending Koji to Texas for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter.

After the 2011 season MacPhail would step down. The team was never able to have a winning season under his watch, but he helped get them into a new spring training facility. He made trades that helped transform the franchise. He was able to keep key players in place. He was able to help rebuild the farm system.

I mean, look at the players that were drafted under his watch: Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Caleb Joseph, Tim Berry, Parker Bridwell, Dan Klein, Mike Wright, Zach Davies, Michael Ohlman. Along with Jonathan Schoop as a amateur draft free agent. All those players have either helped the major league team, been traded for other players, or are still prospects moving up the ladder helping return the Orioles farm system to respectability.

Without the things that Andy MacPhail did, who knows where this team would be. But he deserves a lot of the credit for this team sitting here with three straight winning seasons. Dan Duquette deserves credit too, no doubt. But MacPhail seems to be the forgotten man. And he did a lot of important things that have helped shape the current state of this team.

-Matt Baggette @mlb930

The Jake Arrieta Project

This weekend the Orioles will visit the Cubs, and on Friday they will face a familiar pitcher in Jake Arrieta. Jake is having a great year for the Cubs, posting a 6-4 record with an ERA of 2.61 in 19 starts. Seeing these numbers (and especially if he pitches well or even beats the Orioles), many Orioles fans will be lamenting the fact the Orioles ever traded him.

I guess these people don't remember how bad Arrieta was as an Oriole. In 63 starts (69 appearances) over 4 seasons he went 20-25 with an ERA of 5.46. Let that sink in. An ERA of 5.46. In 2012 his ERA was 6.20. Last season it was 7.23 before the Orioles traded him. He also averaged 4 walks per 9 innings, had a WHIP of 1.47, and averaged only 5 innings per start in his time as an Oriole. His best ERA in a season was his rookie year and it was 4.66. Every other season it was over 5. That's not just bad. That's Daniel Cabrera bad.

Photo Credit: USA Today

 Jake always had the “stuff” to be a good starting pitcher. But he could never get his head straight while in an Orioles uniform. How many times did it look like he was cruising and he would completely lose the strike zone, outthinking himself and getting himself into trouble? The Orioles sent him back to the minors in 2013, before finally trading him to the Cubs in the Scott Feldman deal.

At the time I could only say good job on this trade. Feldman was a solid veteran pitcher and Jake had a ton of chances and was not able to get the job done. The Orioles were trying to make the playoffs again in 2013 and had to bolster the rotation. The trade also sent Pedro Strop packing and no matter what the return in the trade was, sending him out of town was a plus.

Scott Feldman pitched well for the Orioles, but he wasn't able to help the team make the playoffs. I am sure a lot of people now will look at this trade and say what a horrible deal it was .Feldman didn't help the team make the playoffs and now Arrieta is pitching so well for the Cubs and Feldman is in Houston. I disagree. They Orioles needed a veteran pitcher that could give them innings last year in their playoff push and they'd given Arrieta more than enough chances.

Arrieta needed a change of scenery. While it's far from scientific, sometimes it's just that simple - guys need a change of scenery to succeed. Sometimes a trade is a kick in the butt, a wake up call. There is also far less pressure pitching for the Cubs right now than for the Orioles. The Cubs are not expected to win anything right now. The Orioles are in contention for the third consecutive season. Taking that into consideration, there is no guarantee that he would be pitching the same way in a much higher pressure situation in Baltimore if he was still on the team.

Photo Credit: foxnews.com

On top of all that, how would Arrieta have even made the team this year? After getting Bud Norris at the trade deadline last year, signing Ubaldo Jimenez in the offseason, and the likes of Kevin Gausman waiting in the wings there would have been little chance he would have made the team out of spring training. I for one am glad to see Arrieta pitching well now. I always liked him. But I am also not sorry the Orioles traded him, I just don't think he would have ever “gotten it” in Baltimore.

So even if he pitches well, heck even if he beats the Orioles, just remember how bad he was here and how many chances he got before you go cursing the Orioles for trading him. He needed to go somewhere else to figure it out. He needed a lower-pressure situation. I will still be rooting for him to pitch well (he's on one of my fantasy teams, after all ;) ) - just not when he takes the mound vs. the Orioles this weekend. On that day, I will be hoping he pitches like he did in an Oriole uniform.

--Matt Baggette @mlb930