OTW's 2016 Predictions

IT'S THAT TIME FOLKS!! The start of a new season, when our experts put forth their awful predictions that betray their true ignorance of all things baseball. Who will be the least awful of them all? Check back in October, when three of our members will take a public walk of shame and allow you, our readers, to hold them accountable.* So without further ado, sit back and enjoy the ride that is the 2016 MLB season. As always, we welcome your criticism (or Christopher's case, praise) for our stellar predictions.

*This probably won't actually happen

STANDINGS:

Christopher's Picks
AL East:	Yankees	Blue Jays	Orioles	Red Sox	Rays
AL Central:	Royals	Indians	Tigers	Twins	White Sox
AL West:	Rangers	Astros	Mariners	Angels	Athletics
NL East:	Nationals	Mets	Marlins	Phillies	Braves
NL Central:	Cubs	Pirates	Cardinals	Reds	Brewers
NL West:	D'Backs	Giants	Dodgers	Rockies	Padres
AL Wildcards:	Blue Jays	Astros
NL Wildcards:	Pirates	Giants
ALCS:	Rangers over Astros
NLCS:	Cubs over D'backs
World Series:	Cubs over Rangers
Matt's Picks
AL East:	Yankees	Orioles	Blue Jays	Red Sox	Rays
AL Central:	Royals	Tigers	White Sox	Twins	Indians
AL West:	Rangers	Astros	Angels	Mariners	Athletics
NL East:	Nationals	Mets	Marlins	Phillies	Braves
NL Central:	Cubs	Cardinals	Pirates	Reds	Brewers
NL West:	Giants	D'Backs	Dodgers	Padres	Rockies
AL Wildcards:	Orioles	Astros
NL Wildcards:	Mets	D'Backs
ALCS:	Rangers over Royals
NLCS:	Cubs over Nationals
World Series:	Rangers over Cubs
Nathan's Picks
AL East:	Blue Jays	Yankees	Orioles	Red Sox	Rays
AL Central:	Royals	Twins	Tigers	Indians	White Sox
AL West:	Astros	Rangers	Angels	Athletics	Mariners
NL East:	Mets	Nationals	Marlins	Phillies	Braves
NL Central:	Cubs	Cardinals	Pirates	Reds	Brewers
NL West:	Dodgers	Giants	D'Backs	Rockies	Padres
AL Wildcards:	Yankees	Orioles
NL Wildcards:	Cardinals	Giants
ALCS:	Royals over Blue Jays
NLCS:	Mets over Cubs
World Series:	Royals over Mets
Pat's Picks
AL East:	Orioles	Blue Jays	Yankees	Red Sox	Rays
AL Central:	Tigers	Royals	Indians	Twins	White Sox
AL West:	Astros	Rangers	Angels	Mariners	Athletics
NL East:	Nationals	Mets	Marlins	Philles	Braves
NL Central:	Cubs	Pirates	Cardinals	Brewers	Reds
NL West:	Dodgers	D'Backs	Giants	Padres	Rockies
AL Wildcards:	Blue Jays	Royals
NL Wildcards:	Mets	Pirates
ALCS:	Orioles over Astros
NLCS:	Cubs over Pirates
World Series:	Orioles over Cubs

AWARDS: 

		Christopher	Matt	Nathan	Pat
AL MVP		Machado	Correa	Trout	Machado
NL MVP		Harper	Harper	Harper	Harper
AL Cy Young		Hamels	Sale	Keuchel	Richards
NL Cy Young		Cole	Cole	Kershaw	Greinke
AL Manager of the Year		Hinch	Bannister	Molitor	Ausmus
NL Manager of the Year		Maddon	Baker	Maddon	Baker
AL Rookie of the Year		Shaw	Bundy	Gutierrez	Rickard
NL Rookie of the Year		Seager	Seager	Maeda	Matz

BOLD Predictions:

In addition to our regular predictions, each of our writers came up with three bold predictions for the coming season. We'll leave it to you to decide how bold they really are.

Christopher:
1. Bryce Harper will win the Triple Crown
2. Chris Davis will break his own Orioles homerun record
3. A pitcher will win 25 games

Matt:
1. Dylan Bundy stays healthy all year
2. Pedro Alvarez hits the warehouse
3. Cano gets traded

Nathan:
1. The Cubs will not win the World Series
2. Houston will win the AL West by 15 games
3. 19 year old Anthony Simonsen unseats Jason Belmonte as PBA Player of the Year*

*This may or may not be an MLB prediction

Pat:
1. Andrew Cashner will be traded to the Orioles at the deadline
2. David Price will have an ERA over 3.50
3. Josh Donaldson will be ejected from no less than 3 games for being totally insufferable

Adam Jones =MVP

I think the Orioles could have the MVP winner in the AL. Not Mike Trout, nope. An Oriole. No I am not picking the Boomstick, Nelson Cruz. The Oriole I think should be MVP is Adam Jones.

How do we define what is the most valuable? It's subjective for sure. Is it simply the player that has the best numbers? Does being on a winning team really matter? Do we need to factor in things that just can't be measured? Adam Jones is an MVP for many reasons, both statistically and in other ways that can't be measured. First the ones that maybe can't be measured. The intangibles. The unique qualities he possesses that help fuel the team. The Orioles have seen All-Star Catcher Matt Wieters lost for the season (he was having his best year offensively), All-Star third baseman Manny Machado hurt to start the year, suspended and now gone for the year with an injury, JJ Hardy has only 9 home runs and Chris Davis is hitting in the .190's.

Photo Credit: zimbio.com

This has made what Adam Jones has done more valuable than anyone else. He has meant more to his team then anyone else. Yes Nelson Cruz has had a great year and helped a great deal. With his league leading 39 home runs, and 101 RBI's to boot. But Jones is by far the MVP of this team. With the injures and under-performances of key players the season that Jones is having is a big reason for the Orioles being where they are. He is the team's leader on and off the field. He never gets too down or high after a win or a loss. And the influence of his mentality of never giving up and constantly grinding everyday shows up throughout the team. He is the heart and soul of the team, and in many ways as he goes so does the team.

Statistically Jones is having a really good year. Hitting .286/.319/.463/.783  overall for the season, with 24 home runs and 81 RBI's. His 164 hits ranks 8^th in the American League. But the numbers that jump out at me for MVP are what he's done in “clutch” spots (and you know a great deal of the Orioles fan base thinks Jones isn't clutch? Good stuff). In wins, .340/.375/.568/.943 ( in losses .208/.236/.214/.549). With 2 outs (you know clutch) .305/.336/.493/.829. With Runners In Scoring Position ( something the entire team sucks at if you listen to Orioles fans on social media) .324/.359/.496/.855. Even more clutch,with 2 outs and RISP, .323/.364/.484/.848. Oh and he has 6 sac fly's, 15^th in the AL.

There is also Jones's defense. He has a .982 fielding percentage and 324 put outs, which is 8^th amongst all outfielders and 5^th in the American League. His 7 assists, rank 12th in the AL. His defensive WAR ( not a fan of WAR or UZR,but I will include them) is 8.9, and his UZR is 7.3, 4^th among CF's. He routinely cuts balls off and holds runners from taking an extra base. His defense has helped win games as much as his bat.

Turning a 3 run homer into a double play
Photo Credit: fansided.com

Now compare his numbers to Mr. Trout. Hitting .285/.370/.552/.922 with 32 home runs and 102 RBI's. His batting average is a point lower, and yes his OPS is better. And yeah he's got more homers and RBI. But, Jones has a batting average of .340 in wins vs Trout's .309. Also Jones is having a better season w/RISP and most notably with 2 outs and 2 outs w/RISP. Trout is hitting .199/.331/.288/.619  with 2 outs. And with 2 outs and RISP he is only hitting .213/.362/.298/.660. So he hasn't been as “clutch” in those spots as Jones has.

Trout is widely considered on of the better defenders in the game. The defensive metrics (which again I am not a fan of and don't at all understand how Trouts are this bad) show Trout to be having a bad year in the field. A defensive WAR of -5.4 and a UZR of -6.6, despite having a .994 fielding percentage,with 335 putouts and 4 assist.

Trout is on a team that has a future Hall of Famer in Albert Pujols, who, while not the same Albert, is still a force and having a good year. And yes Josh Hamilton has been hurt and is not having a great year. The Angels still have not had the players lost for year or under perform the way the Orioles have and Trout has not had to pick up as much slack as Jones has. The Angels pitching has also been really good this year and one could argue that someone like Garrett Richards is the Angels MVP more so than Trout.

The Champ...no MVP is here!!!

I know that Jones is behind Trout in almost every statistical category. But I feel with the players the Orioles have lost from their lineup and with some players having down years at the plate, what Jones has done for this team make him the most VAULABLE player. Without Jones's production I shudder to think where the Orioles would be this season. So factoring in Jones stats, the loss and under-performance of key players,and his gold glove defense, I would say Adam Jones is more valuable to the Orioles, a first place team that would not be in first without him, than Mike Trout is to the Angels. 

-Matt Baggette @mlb930