American League East 2015 Preview: Boston Red Sox

Our third installment to the Off The Warehouse 2015 AL East season preview: The Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox

2014 Record: 71-91

5^th in AL East

2014 Season Review:

Will Boston return to former glory? (wikipedia)

For the second time in three years, the Boston Red Sox finished in the basement of the American League East division.  The consolation for this, however, was the World Series Championship in 2013.  Fresh off of an historic collapse in 2011 and a dismal 2012 campaign, the Red Sox followed unlikely heroes Shane Victorino and Jonny Gomes to their eighth World Series title and third in ten years.  Unfortunately for them, in 2014, they fell back to the bottom. 

By the July 31^st trade deadline, the BoSox were all but out of the race and had traded away their top pitching talents: Jon Lester to Oakland, Jake Peavy to San Francisco, John Lackey to St. Louis, and Andrew Miller to Baltimore.  From there, it was all downhill as expected following those departures.  Offseason additions Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski never panned out, with Pierzynski eventually departing for St. Louis.  Their bullpen hero from 2013, Koji Uehara, showed his age in the final months of the 2014 season, posting ERAs of 5.56 and 6.23 in August and September respectively.  Clay Buchholz, who looked like a Cy Young contender before health issues in 2013, pitched to a dismal 5.34 ERA in 28 starts.  Outside of a stellar Jon Lester and a solid John Lackey, the Sox pitching staff, overall, was terrible.  These days, a bad pitching staff usually spells bad things for a team. 

The only real bright spots for the defending champs were another big offensive season from David Ortiz, who hit 35 home runs and drove in 104 RBI, another solid season from workhorse and former MVP Dustin Pedroia, and the cannon arm of former top prospect Jackie Bradley, Jr.  Other than that, the 2014 Boston Red Sox were nothing to write home about and it was obvious a lot of work needed to be done to improve this ball club going forward into 2015.

Key Losses

Jon Lester, SP

How will the Boston staff fare without their ace? (Boston Globe)

Jon Lester was traded to Oakland before the July 31^st trade deadline.  Many assumed that the lefty was going to finish the year in Oakland and then sign a long-term deal with Boston after the season.  Unfortunately for Boston, a rumored low-ball offer earlier in the season drove Lester away from town and he eventually ended up in Chicago with former Boston executive Theo Epstein.

Andrew Miller, LHP

Andrew Miller was another deadline casualty as the Sox shipped their lefty reliever to Baltimore for highly rated prospect Eduardo Rodriguez.  Miller went on to dominate in Baltimore before signing a 4 year deal with New York.

John Lackey, SP

In case you haven’t noticed a theme yet, Boston’s key losses came mostly from the trade deadline in 2014.  John Lackey posted a 3.60 ERA in a Sox uniform before heading over to the Cardinals to finish out the season.

Jake Peavy, SP

Have you noticed the second theme?  Pitching.  Jake Peavy was one of four major pitching talents to be sent out of town during the 2014 season.  Peavy went on to win the World Series in San Francisco; his second straight World Series ring.

Key Additions

Pablo Sandoval, 3B

How'd they get that panda to cooperate? (USA Today)

Panda was one of the top free agents on the market in 2014 and it was well known that he was going to get a substantial pay day from somebody, and that somebody turned out to be the Boston Red Sox.  On November 24^th, Sandoval signed a 5 year, $100 million contract with a club option for a 6^th year. 

Hanley Ramirez, SS (?)

Boston snagged another highly prized free agent when they signed former Sox prospect shortstop Hanley Ramirez to a 4 year, $88 million contract with a fifth year vesting option worth $22 million.  Hanley’s role with the 2015 Red Sox may not be what seems obvious, however, but we’ll get into that later.

Rick Porcello, SP

Starting pitcher Rick Porcello was acquired by the Red Sox in a trade that sent short-stint left fielder Yoenis Cespedes and two others to Detroit.  Following the departures of so much pitching, this move may prove to be more significant than it looks at face value. 

2015 Season Outlook

Based on the high profile additions of Ramirez and Sandoval, it is safe to say that the Boston Red Sox were one of the winners of the offseason.  They signed two of the highest profile free agents on the market and were able to trade for a solid pitcher.  But is that enough? 

The loss of Jon Lester may prove to be one of the more significant losses in baseball.  Boston’s 2014 team ERA was 4.01, good for 23^rd in the majors.  Take Jon Lester’s production out of that equation, and their final team ERA would have finished at 4.17, which would have put them as the third worst pitching staff in the American League.   While this is not an 100% accurate portrayal of how the Red Sox staff would have faired without Lester for a full season, it does portray how big of a role Lester played in the Sox organization. 

With the exception of Rick Porcello, not a single starting pitcher slated for the 2015 season sported an ERA under 4.00.  Clay Buchholz was downright terrible, Felix Doubront was relegated to bullpen duty, and Ruby De La Rosa and Brandon Workman were not much better.  Another offseason addition, Wade Miley, while pitching 200+ innings in 33 starts, sported a 4.34 ERA and a 1.401 WHIP.  Justin Masterson hopes to have a bounce back year after posting a 5.88 ERA in 25 starts in 2014, but that will be tough given the offensive prowess of teams like the Orioles and Blue Jays.  

There has been some talk of the Red Sox exploring a blockbuster trade for Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels, but there has not been much movement on that front and the lefty remains a Philly.  If Boston were to add Hamels to their group, they will be in significantly better shape starting pitching wise for the season, but as they are currently built, starting pitching is possibly the worst in the division.

Who will join Tazawa in a depleted bullpen? (60ft6in)

Their bullpen outlook does not bode well, either.  Their best bullpen arm, Andrew Miller, is with their pinstriped rivals and Koji Uehara is quickly approaching either retirement or a return to Japan.  Eduard Mujica, once a Baltimore free agent target, struggled to a 3.90 ERA and 10.4 hits per nine innings going into the final year of his two year contract.  Right hander Junichi Tazawa looks like the only bright spot of the bullpen following the departure of Burke Badenhop to Cincinnati.  The good thing for Boston is that, sometimes, bullpens find success despite what the stats might suggest (see: 2012 Baltimore Orioles).  It seems as if the Boston pen will need to catch lightning in a bottle in order to be effective in 2015.  

What Boston does have going for them in 2015 is what looks to be a stellar offense on paper.  Both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez move from pitcher friendly parks to right handed hitters' paradise Fenway Park.  David Ortiz has shown little to no signs of slowing down power wise from the DH position, and young studs Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts are itching to live up to what was expected from them coming out of the minor leagues.  While not the best lineup top to bottom as it currently stands, the middle part of that order could be one of the most fearsome in all of baseball.  

But, is the baseball world too quick to anoint this offense as one of the best in the game?  Let's take a look at a few numbers:

Pablo Sandoval has proven to be an utter force in the playoffs.  In three years of postseason play, Sandoval has posted a slash line of .344/.389/.545 with 6 home runs and 20 RBI.  That slash line is absolutely unheard of and it's not hard to see why he was so loved in San Francisco.  However, his regular season numbers look a bit different.  Here are Pablo's slash lines from the last 4 seasons:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	.315	.357	.552	.909
2012	.283	.342	.447	.789
2013	.278	.341	.417	.758
2014	.279	.324	.415	.739

As you can see, follwing a great 2011 campaign, Sandoval has seen a yearly decline in OPS.  While still an above average hitter at the plate, he certainly is not the offensive powerhouse that arrives come playoff time.  

Sandoval does sport the advantage of being a switch hitter, which does not allow other teams to match up accordingly.  He also has been know to spray his hits across all fields, making him dangerous from both sides of the plate, though he hits significantly better from the left side.  The big question for Sandoval's bat going into the 2015 season is what will have more influence in his production, moving to hitter friendly Fenway or his declining stats?  Only time will tell.

Hanley Ramirez's bat may be poised for a good season as well.  Even with the infamous Green Monster in left field, Fenway Park is a right handed hitter's delight.  As you can see from the home run spray chart to the right, Ramirez should have no trouble hitting the ball out of Fenway.  

Hanley is coming off another strong season from the plate, batting .283/.369/.448 in 128 games.  In 2013, Ramirez was putting up MVP caliber numbers before succumbing to yet another injury.  If he can remain healthy for a full season, Ramirez could be a force in the AL East.  That's the trouble, however: staying healthy.  Since 2011, Hanley has not seen a full season on the field in three of four years.  With the potential for Boston's rotation to struggle mightily, it is imperative for Ramirez to stay healthy and help the offense produce.  

The other big names in this lineup are former MVP Dustin Pedroia and ageless wonder David Ortiz. While Ortiz had his lowest OPS since 2009, he still managed to slug 35 home runs and drive in 104. Every year, we question whether or not Ortiz's age will finally catch up with him, and every year (save an injury ridden 2012) he continues to produce at a high level.  But, we have to ask: will this be the year his age will be a factor?  How long can he produce at this level?  Just like Sandoval, only time will tell, but for now we'll have to assume he will continue to be a fearsome hitter.  

Can the shortest man in the world return to form? (Counting Baseballs)

Dustin Pedroia is a different story, however.  In 2014, Pedroia posted career lows in OPS, SLG, AVG, OBP, HR, and SB.  His OPS has declined every year since 2011 and is coming off of surgery on a banged up hand.  Coming off of a season like that, it is easy to say that he will have a bounce back year, but it could also be the continuation of his decline, especially given that, at 30 years old, he is on the wrong end of him prime years.  

Despite the declines of three major stars, the Red Sox offense still has one of the more fearsome middle lineups in the game.  Their AL East rivals will have their hands full when Boston is in the opposing dugout.  

In the third facet of the game, however, the Red Sox are not so stellar.  Pedroia is still playing second base at an elite level, but every other position outside of center field (assuming Jackie Bradley, Jr. get the nod) holds an average or below average defender.  Converted catcher Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Xander Bogaerts, and Pablo Sandoval all sported below average range factors per game in 2014.  Young catcher Christian Vazquez, while throwing out 52% of base stealers, had eight past balls despite only playing 54 games behind the plate.  Then we get to left field, which is where it gets really interesting.  

The above image is a screenshot of the defensive positions played by Hanley Ramirez.  A quick look at Boston's posted 40-man roster and...

Hanley Ramirez, a 10 year veteran of the infield, will be the Boston Red Sox starting left fielder.  I have to admit, it is an intriguing idea, however there is reason why any baseball fan should think that this move will work out.  Ramirez was a below average fielder at his natural shortstop position and proved to be one of the laziest defenders in the game, which is reflected in his range factors.  Not only that, but left field requires a completely new set of defensive skills.  He has to learn to properly track fly balls, take correct routes, and properly play hits off of the monster.  There is a very good chance that, at best, the Red Sox have another Manny Ramirez out in left field, and we all know what that was like:

While struggling on defense isn't necessarily the kiss of death for a baseball team, it can be extremely detrimental to a team with below average pitching.  If the Red Sox want to be able to compete in a wide open American League East, their defense must improve.

2015 Season Prediction

Despite having one of the more active offseasons in Major League Baseball, the Boston Red Sox still find themselves with a flurry of "ifs" going into the 2015 season.  The 2013 champs may revive their status as an offensive powerhouse, however their questionable defense and more than questionable pitching will ultimately come back to haunt them.  With the way this team is currently built, it is hard to put them as favorites in the American League East.  It is likely that the team will improve on their 2014 season, but I find it hard to see them winning more than 82 games.  If the Boston Red Sox want to compete in 2015, they're going to have to find their 2013 magic touch and a whole lot more pitching.

2015 Record Prediction: 79-83, 4th in AL East

Will the AL East flag fly north for the winter?

Over the next few days, we will be previewing the upcoming season for the five teams of the American League East, ending with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Next up, the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays

2014 Record: 83-79

3^rd in AL East

2014 Season Review:

Heartache. That is the only word that can be used to describe the feeling in Toronto over the past two seasons. After tearing the proverbial roof off of the offseason prior to the 2013 season, the Jays stumbled to an embarrassing last place finish with a stacked roster that should have made a World Series run. Last year, things seemed to finally fall into place after the team got off to a torrid start, including 20+ wins in the month of May. But that familiar feeling of disappointment returned as the team faded down the stretch. The front office inexplicably did nothing at last year’s trade deadline, despite splurging prior to 2013, and making some big moves again this offseason. Players were frustrated and an air of defeat seemed to consume the team as they faded drastically in August and September.

Disappointment has been the name of the game for Blue Jays
fans the past two seasons, as they continue to wait for the team's
first playoff berth in 22 years. (Photo credit: Globe & Mail)

Things were made even worse when the Kansas City Royals made their improbable World Series run, leaving Toronto as the only major league team without a playoff appearance in the Wild Card era.

The season was not without bright spots though. Jose Bautista was his usual dominant and reliable self; Edwin Encarnacion hit 34 homeruns despite missing a month with a quad injury; Mark Buehrle started the season 10-1;  and the season saw the emergence of young pitchers Marcus Strohman and Aaron Sanchez, who have the organization and its fans salivating for the future.

Key Losses

Brett Lawrie, 3B

Brett Lawrie was a paradox. The team and fans loved his pedal-to-the-metal fire, but it was that same fire that often rubbed people the wrong way and got him into trouble. Throw in the fact that he could not keep himself on the field and it was hard to figure out what the Jays had in him. He was surprisingly traded to Oakland this offseason for Josh Donaldson, in a deal that included prospects. Fans were initially upset by the news, but I think Lawrie’s replacement will leave them pleased in the long run.

Casey Janssen, RP

This one is tough to figure out, especially given that Janssen signed with the Nationals on a 1 year, $5M deal with an option for 2016. Janssen has been a rock at the back of a sometimes-shaky Jays pen for the last 4 seasons and the Nationals got him at a bargain. Why the Blue Jays wouldn’t match that offer doesn’t make much sense. His numbers climbed a bit last season but were still respectable, and from 2011-2013, never had an ERA above 2.56 or a WHIP higher than 1.10. Throw in their apparent lack of bullpen depth and they may be kicking themselves for letting Janssen leave.

Adam Lind, 1B

Lind improved on his strong 2013 season, posting a line of .321/.381/.479. Problem was he only played in 96 games due to injuries. With a $7.5M price tag for the coming season, the Blue Jays felt it not wise to gamble on a full healthy season from Lind and traded him to Milwaukee for pitcher Marco Estrada.

J.A. Happ, SP

Happ was traded to Seattle to acquire Michael Saunders. Happ was dependable, but mediocre in his time with Toronto. With the Jays current stable of starters, he likely won’t be missed.

Brandon Morrow, SP

Morrow signed a contract with the Padres in the offseason, ending a tumultuous career with the Jays that saw absolutely jaw-dropping performances frequently mixed with vomit-inducing performances and DL stints.

Key Additions

Russell Martin, C

Russell Martin brings lofty expectations
of a post-season return to Toronto.

Called by some the most influential signing of the offseason in all of baseball, I might be inclined to agree. There’s no question the Jays can bash with the big boys, but next to injuries, inconsistent pitching has dogged them the last few years. Martin is known for being able to get the most out of his pitchers, and with a relatively young staff, he should work the magic necessary to get the Jays over the hump this season. His .290/.402/.430 slash line from last year doesn’t hurt, and the power allies in Toronto should be kind to his doubles totals.

Josh Donaldson, 3B

Acquired from Oakland in the Brett Lawrie trade, Donaldson gives Toronto one of the best young third basemen in the game. He brings good defense, which will be tested on Rogers Centre’s turf, and a powerful bat that should shine in the Dome. This pickup signifies how serious the Jays are about putting the bad taste of the past two seasons out of their collective mouths.

Marco Estrada, SP

Estrada is likely only here to keep a rotation spot warm for Aaron Sanchez. He allowed an astounding 29 homers in 150 innings with Milwaukee last year, which can only mean one thing – fans in the bleachers at Rogers Centre better bring a helmet.

Justin Smoak

Smoak is a low-risk, high-reward guy who wasn’t realizing his potential in Seattle. He will see time at first base to spot Encarnacion and his switch-hitting ability will give John Gibbons some good late-game PH matchups. His power should see a resurgence in Toronto.

2015 Season Outlook

Living north of the border, I definitely feel some empathy for Blue Jays fans. The last two years, in addition to the long playoff drought, have produced a level of disappointment I’m all too familiar with in my life as an Orioles fan. After two straight seasons of “This is our year!” optimism, the Jays and their fans are banking the third time is a charm.

The Blue Jays swap of third basemen with the Athletics proves
that GM Alex Anthopoulos is done messing around. Will it put
the Jays over the top?     

On paper, that optimism is well-founded. In 2013, the Jays won the offseason, but many wondered how the big acquisitions would all mesh. They never found their footing, dealing with injuries and poor performances, and tumbled to the cellar. Last year they were primed and hungry, but injuries derailed them again. At one point in their mid-season slide, Bautista, Encarnacion, Lawrie and Lind were all on the DL at the same time. Throw in the Front Office’s inexplicable failure to make any moves at the deadline to help a team that was just 3 games out, and the ship sank fast and heavy.

So what’s different this season? Two words: Russell Martin. There are many reasons for optimism in the Great White North this season, and we’ll get into them, but Martin is the key. Dioner Navarro more than held his own last season, hitting over .300 and doing a decent job with the pitching staff. Martin, however, is known for having a Midas touch behind the plate. His pitch framing ability and work with young pitchers have been praised, which is music to the ears of a franchise expecting big things from young pitchers Stroman, Sanchez and Drew Hutchison. The club must decide what to do with Navarro, at $5M, but right now he has DH potential and would likely be the best backup catcher in baseball, giving the Jays no qualms about getting Martin some rest when necessary.

Lawrie will be missed, but Donaldson brings some thunder, having hit 20+ homers and 90+ RBI in the cavernous O.co Coliseum each of the last two seasons. His average tumbled a bit last year, but no doubt he’s salivating over the Rogers Centre. His 30+ doubles each of the last 2 seasons could push 50 in his new surroundings. Throw in his solid glove and improved emotional maturity over Lawrie, and the Jays should be greatly improved. Donaldson finished second to Mike Trout in total WAR for position players last season, and third behind Trout and Carlos Gomez in 2013.

The Jays have a few possibilities in their pitching rotation this season, but the top 4 are likely set in stone. R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are locks and if they repeat their 2014 campaigns (3.71 and 3.39 ERAs respectively), the Blue Jays will more than take it. Stroman and Hutchison will be 3-4. Stroman was quite the find last season when he burst on the scene, posting an 11-6 record in 20 starts after moving to the rotation from the bullpen. Hutchison showed flashes of brilliance but was dogged by inconsistency and must find balance to succeed. With Happ being traded, Morrow leaving via FA and McGowan still on the market, Estrada will likely keep the #5 spot warm for Sanchez, though Sanchez could force the team’s hand with a lights-out spring.

With Janssen and McGowan gone, Brett Cecil and Sanchez likely lead the charge in the bullpen to start the season. Steve Delabar, and youngsters Kyle Drabek and Daniel Norris could see some action there, but this will be the team’s biggest question mark heading into spring training.

Second base is the only other glaring hole, which is why the Lawrie trade surprised many. The team traded up at 3B, no question, but they still have a glaring hole on the right side of the infield. For now, the job belongs to Ryan Goins or the returning Maicer Izturus, but another option may be needed as the season progresses. Justin Smoak was brought in to potentially help keep Encarnacion fresh at first base and Danny Valencia provides a solid match-up option at the corner infield spots and DH.

Manager John Gibbons will likely have to manage differently than in previous years, with so many potential young and moving parts, but it’s a good problem to have. The team MUST avoid injuries to compete. Whether it’s the Rogers Centre turf or poor conditioning within the organization, injuries have crippled the Jays the last few years, and at the worst possible times. Gibbons must find a way to keep players fresh while not compromising the team’s ability to compete. This team has potential and in my mind is the biggest threat to the Orioles quest to repeat as division champs.

My prediction: an 88-90 win season for the Jays, with Jays fans getting to witness October baseball north of the border for the first time in 22 years.

--Christopher Mills, cjmills82

American League East 2015 Preview: New York Yankees

This week, we will be previewing the upcoming season for the five teams of the American League East, ending with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Leading off, the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees

2014 Record 84-78

2^nd in AL East

2014 Season Review:

For the second straight season the Yankees missed the playoffs. This coming after an offseason where they spent gobs of money on free agents that included the likes of Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Masahiro Tanaka. They spent most of the year with a black hole at second base after letting Robinson Cano leave. And spent a good deal of time saying goodbye to retiring Derek Jeter.

Their big name free agent players produced mixed results, leading to a less then stellar offense. They finished the year 20^th in runs, 12^th in homers, 20^th in batting average, 23^rd in OBP, 17^th in SLG and 20^th in OPS in all of baseball. This lead to them adding players like Chase Headley and Martin Prado during the season via trades to try and beef up the offense. Add to this a laundry list of injuries to their pitching staff, such as, losing CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova for most of the year, seeing Michael Pineda make only 13 starts, and seeing their best pitcher in Tanaka (13-5 2.77 ERA) miss pretty much all of the second half. The 2014 season also marked the first in the post-Mariano Rivera era. David Robertson took over as closer and had a good season, but they were forced to make many moves to try to fill the pitching staff in, adding the likes of Brandon McCarthy and Chris Capuano. This led to a staff that finished 18^th in ERA. It wasn't enough for them to keep pace in the division or wild card races, though McCarthy did pitch rather well for them.

Key Losses

Derek Jeter, SS

While the captain had one of his worst seasons at the plate and in the field, the loss of his presence and leadership will be hard to replace. After Mariano Rivera retired, Jeter was the last of the core group of players that helped lead the Yankees to 5 World Series rings. It will be an odd sight to see the Yankees without #2 in the lineup.

David Robertson, RP

He took over for a legend as closer. He had a good year saving 39 games and a 3.08 ERA. But with Dellin Betances appearing poised to take over as closer, the Yankees let him leave for the White Soxs. He now has a year of closing experience under his belt, while the Yankees will enter a second straight season with a closer that has never held the job at the big league level.

Brandon McCarthy, SP

After a mid-season trade to help sure up their injury riddled rotation, McCarthy pitched to a 7-5 record with a 2.89 ERA. The Yankees seemed to want to keep him, but he left for Dodgers, at 4 years and $48 million.

Shane Greene, SP

He made 15 starts for the Yankees. He was decent. 5-4 with a 3.78 ERA. He was traded a three team deal that would bring the team Jeter's replacement.

Hiroki Kuroda, SP

For a team that had so much trouble fielding healthy pitchers they sure let a bunch go. Kuroda had his highest ERA since 2009. But he still was able to give the team innings, with 199. Kuroda decided to go back to Japan and pitch there this year.

Key Additions

Andrew Miller, RP

Miller had his best season. He was traded to the Orioles at the July 31^st trade deadline. He then was dominant for the Orioles the rest of the season and when he pitched in the playoffs. He is partnered with Betances to make what could be the best one-two punch at the end of games in all of baseball. Neither he or Betances have closed before. And it's not 100% clear who will be given the closer's role or if they will share it.

Chase Headley, 3B

Headley was acquired midseason in a trade. He came over and was a big help on defense and his bat was okay, but not great. He will never match his 2012 offensive production again, but the Yankees decided his plus defense was enough to give him a 4 year, $52 million contract.

Didi Gregorius, SS

Gregorius was the return in the three team trade that saw Shane Greene leave. Gregorius has a reputation as a plus defender, which should be a giant upgrade over Derek Jeter, though not many in New York are likely to say that out loud. The problem here is he is all glove and almost no bat. And he's replacing a legend.

Nathan Eovaldi, SP

Acquired in the Martin Prado trade, Eovaldi is an interesting young arm with some promise. He is coming off a season where he went 6-14 with a 4.37 ERA. But he was able to throw 199.2 innings. If nothing else he's a younger arm with some upside that should be able to give innings.

Alex Rodriguez, INF

LOL!!!!!!

2015 Season Outlook

The Yankees offseason saw them land one of the best free agents in Andrew Miller and bring back Chase Headley. While not adding to their rotation they seem to be counting on their injured pitchers coming back strong. They have added a better defensive player to replace Jeter but his bat won't help a team that was in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories. They also have lost Jeter's leadership.

Then there is the rotation. CC is coming off a serious injury and may be in full decline. After a 4.78 ERA in 2013, he pitched to a 5.28 ERA last season, though only in 8 starts. Tanaka was great the first half. But after his injury he only made one start and there is the still looming possibility that he will need to have Tommy John surgery and be lost for the entire year. Ivan Nova is coming off of Tommy John himself and won't be ready at the start of the year but should be ready to go at some point in the first few months. Michael Pineda pitched well in 13 starts he made in 2014, posting an ERA of 1.89. He may be the teams best and most healthy starter for the upcoming season. This is a rotation that is counting on the returns of several pitchers from injury and banking on Tanaka not needing TJ. Pineda and Tanaka could be a formidable top two. But the rest of the rotation is shaky at best.

Miller and Betances might be the best one-two punch at the end of games in all of baseball. But can either of them close? And will they be able to get to either of them with a lead? The rest of the pen is a bit of a question. David Carpenter comes over from Atlanta and looks to be one of the set up men. He had an excellent 2013 but took a step back in 2014, allowing 9 hits per 9 innings pitched and seeing his ERA jump from 1.78 to 3.54. Adam Warren had a 2.97 ERA overall, but it climbed to 3.26 in the second half. They also have signed Andrew Bailey to a minor league deal, hoping he can stay healthy and show some of what made him a Rookie of the Year winner in 2009.

For a team who's offense was in the bottom half of the league in most categories they did nothing to improve it. The hope here must be that players like Brian McCann, who had the worst year of his career in OBP and OPS, and Carlos Beltran can return more to what they have done in the past. Didi Gregorius replaces Derek Jeter, and while he can't be much worse than Jeter was last year at the plate, he isn't exactly a giant upgrade. Also there is the oh so fun circus of Alex Rodriguez coming back from a year long suspension. Where does he play? Can he even field? Is there anything left in his bat? He will more than likely spend time at DH, a spot they must use to rotate several of the older players through.

Defensively they should be an improved club, espically the left side of the infield. Headley and Gregorius will be much better than what they had last season. Gardner and Ellsbury well have left and center field covered well.

So has this team improved? Defensively they have upgraded. The back end of their pen could be nasty. Their offense is counting on players coming back from down years and otherwise has done little to improve. The rotation is banking on injured stars coming back and being effective. There are a lot of if's with this approach. I see them as a team still in the 80-85 win range. A team that will still miss the playoffs.

Matthew Baggette @mlb930

Baffled in Baltimore: The Dan Duquette Saga

It started before the Winter Meetings and now keeps coming back up over and over again, like a dish of bad Mexican food. In early December it was announced that the Blue Jays wanted Dan Duquette to be their new team president – despite Duquette being under contract with the Orioles. It’s not uncommon for teams to make a request for an interview, but somehow this became public quickly and threatened to derail the Orioles offseason. To date, Peter Angelos has been the only one sticking to a concrete stance – Duquette is under contract and isn’t going anywhere. Duquette has done nothing to calm things or throw water on the fire, suggesting he may be trying to force his way out of a team he has led to two playoff appearances in the past 3 years, most recently a 96-win season that saw the Birds finish at the top of the AL East. So what are we to make of all this?

Let’s take a look at the key participants in this debacle and the role they’ve played.

Peter Angelos

For once O's fans can't blame ol' Pete
for Orioles' front office turmoil.

The consummate bad guy. Easy to hate and blame for anything and everything that goes wrong with this team. So far, he has dug in his heels and refused to let Duquette leave his post as Orioles General Manager – and shockingly has drawn criticism for it. Regardless of your views on ol’ Pete, he’s not in the wrong here. Yes, it is common practice for teams to allow their executives to leave for positions with other clubs that would be deemed a promotion, but it’s not a rule. Angelos is not the first owner

to deny his employee the ability to leave his contract, and he won’t be the least. Angelos isn’t even the only GM in this very case to deny his employee: Jerry Reinsdorf of the White Sox forbade Kenny Williams from interviewing with Toronto for the same position, but no one is on his case.

Duquette did amazing things his first two years as Orioles GM and was rewarded by Angelos for his with a 4-year extension, so it’s understandable he’s not rushing to let Duquette out of that same contract a year later. And I’m sure the fact that things became so public has not helped soften him on the idea.

Dan Duquette

Duquette’s behaviour in all this has been curious. He’s said nothing to quell the rumours and put out the fires, which would suggest he’s okay letting this circus play out so he can leave town. It’s possible Duquette has been working with the Blue Jays to try and force Angelos’s hand, but there’s nothing to prove that. At very least though, he’s allowing that perception to be created; a perception that he is trying to force his way out of town and undermine his current employer in the process. His reputation is taking a huge hit and he doesn’t seem to care. I understand his style of keeping information close to the vest, but this is one instance where he should have spoken up.

Duquette is still with the Orioles in body. Is his heart here too?

I’m incredibly disappointed in Duquette’s handling of this situation. I totally understand wanting a promotion, but it’s not a given (or a rule) that employers have to oblige. So if Angelos says no, you leave it at that and do your job. But it’s become very clear this debacle has affected the Orioles offseason

as they’ve let some prime outfield options waltz off the market at very reasonable terms and prices. All Dan had to say was that he’d expressed interest in the position, but now his focus was 100% with the Orioles and building for 2015. But he could not even do that with any kind of authority.

MLB

Many rumours have circulated that the Blue Jays were working with MLB to get this deal done. While I don’t doubt MLB wants to see it happen because it’s a promotion for Duquette, Jon Morosi reported today that MLB views this as an issue between clubs and is unlikely to get involved. Nor should they.

Toronto Blue Jays

In my mind, Rogers Communications, the owners of the Toronto Blue Jays, are the real culprits here. They began trying to poach other team’s executives (yes, I use the word poach because that’s what it amounts to) a week before the winter meetings. Kenny Williams and Dan Duquette were apparently approached by the Blue Jays, who leaked this information to the media to put pressure on Reinsdorf and Angelos. For some reason Reinsdorf has slid off into the background but Angelos still remains on the fire, but I digress. And not to mention all of this occurred without the knowledge of Paul Beeston. Who’s Paul Beeston, you may ask? That would be the Blue Jays president, signed through 2015. Yes, that’s right – Rogers tried to fill a position that was already filled, without informing the man who was currently filling it.

I’m sure there are many facts we don’t have in all this, but from what we do know so far, the Blue Jays have been very unethical in all this and may even be guilty of tampering. They approached GMs employed by other teams and leaked it to the media to put pressure on those GMs’ respective owners. Then when that didn’t work, they went to MLB like a kid tattling on a playground, hoping the teacher will take their side against the mean, unfair bully who, in actuality, is not the bully at all. The Blue Jays are the bullies here.

Solution

I don’t see any way to repair this situation and I think Angelos knows that as well. Even if Duquette came out now with a strong pro-Oriole statement, no one would buy it. The Blue Jays have gotten the result they were after all along, which was to create tension and havoc to the point where they’d ultimately have to be given their way.

If I’m Angelos, I’m putting an offer on the table for the Blue Jays that heavily rewards the Orioles. “I will let you have Duquette for XX – take it or leave it.” Make it public and put it in Toronto’s court. Then take what you get, send DD packing and get a replacement in pronto to start taking care of business in preparation for the upcoming season.

According to recent articles in the Baltimore Sun, there are some solid (though not spectacular) candidates lined up, including Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Kevin Towers. It’s also possible that Buck Showalter and Brady Anderson would jointly fill the role. Either way, it’s important for Angelos to step up and alleviate this uncomfortable situation and return some stability to the front office as soon as possible. It’s not his fault this situation is where it is, but he has the power to end it quickly for the sake of his franchise and its fans, and possible earn himself some goodwill in the process.

Send Duquette to Toronto and let him have a front row seat as the monster he created in Baltimore destroys his new team and continues to reap their recent success.

The Orioles will be just fine, everyone. Just fine.

--Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

Not that worried

 

This offseason has not been fun. I am right there with all of the other frustrated Orioles fans. After a 96 win, AL East winning, ALCS reaching season, to watch in the span of one week, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis ( the most painful of all for me, I can't lie I shed tears when the news broke Nick was a Brave) and Andrew Miller leave via free agency, has been nothing but painful. Add to that seeing other teams in the division make moves and watching all the outfield options vanish one by one, and it has not been a joy at all.

Even with all this bad news, I still feel good about the 2015 season. No, I really do. I am not insane...well not completely insane. There are a lot of reasons to feel good about the Orioles in 2015. Even though the rest of the division has been busy making moves, I am not all that worried about the rest of the division. And, well, here's why.

New York Yankees

The Yanks got Andrew Miller. We as Orioles fans know just how good Miller can be, getting to see it the last two months of the season and in the playoffs. Miller and Bentances should make for quite the one two punch at the back end of their pen. But neither one of them have ever closed. So while I'm not saying neither won't be able to get the job done, it is still at least a question mark heading into the season. And hey, it's great to have lock down guys at the end of the game, but will they be able to get to either of them with a lead? They lost several starting pitchers, including Brandon McCarthy via free agency and others through trades. CC is coming off an injury, Tanaka could end up needing TJ still, and the list goes on. Their rotation is nothing to get excited about in my opinion. 

Then look at their infield. Desperately re-signing Stephen Drew because they had no second basemen. Injury concerns at first and catcher. Didi Gregorius gets the task of trying to replace Derek Jeter ( wait....wait...you mean to tell me that even though the mighty Derek Jeter retired there is still going to be a baseball season!!?? ) with his all glove and no bat. Also they have the fun circus that is Alex Rodriguez coming back. Color me not worried about them.

Toronto Blue Jays

Russell Martin is a good add. No doubt about it. Solid hitter, real good defense. Donaldson instead of Lawrie should be a plus. But at the moment they still have no second basemen, no closer and some holes in their pen. Stroman is a really good looking young pitcher, but after that I am not overly impressed with the rotation. The could have a vary good offense. But right now I still don't think they have enough pitching to win the division.

Tampa Bay Rays

They have lost their GM, their manager and then traded away almost every player who's name you know . They still have Longo and...well, that's about it. And they do still have darn good starting pitching. Their pen is a question. And again (how is this different from any other year?) they are all pitching and no offense. They seem to be in a transition phase. Their pitching could still make them annoying. But I don't think they are threat to make the playoffs.

Boston Red Sox

Maybe the most active of the teams in the division. They added two big bats, even though Sandoval's numbers have gone down each of the past few seasons, and Hanley Ramirez, who is a tremendous hitter, has had a problem staying on the field. They are moving him to the outfield, somewhere he has never played. Does that mean he can't do it? Of course not, but it is at least a question mark to start the year. They could have a fantastic offense, but then there is this other part of the game everyone that is in a panic over the moves they have made seems to forget: It's called pitching. They have made some moves, adding Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson, but I'm not sold. Porcello is a good addition, but I wouldn't call him an ace. Miley has had a couple solid years, but again doesn't really scare me. The Soxs have probably fixed their offense, but to me what their rotation appears to be right now is not impressive at all.

Now for the Orioles. Why should you actually not be too worried about the team? Well even though I will miss Nick Markakis, Alejandro De Aza could replace his production. Admittedly I am not the most thrilled person about the idea of Steve Pearce as the other starting corner outfielder. I feel his best role is playing 3-5 times a week and moving around between first base, the outfield and DH. But maybe I am wrong and he will be as productive, if not more so than he was this past season.

The Orioles also have three key players coming back from injuries or down seasons in Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis. I'm sure most people roll their eyes when they see this come up again, but really, I mean really a healthy Wieters and Machado and even a 2012 version of Chris Davis would be giant pluses for this team.

Manny Machado got off to a slow start in 2014. May and June were not great. But look at what he did in July and August. In July he hit .333/.356/.565. And in August .378/.429/.511. In just 327 ab's he hit 12 home runs. In 2013 he hit 14 in 667. Manny could easily be a 30 home run hitter this season. That will certainly ease some of the pain of losing Cruz and his 40 homers.

Matt Wieters changed his batting stance in 2014. And it worked wonderfully. He was off to by far his best season with the bat. The biggest change was noticed with Wieters hitting left handed. His numbers had always been less than stellar from the left side. Though he did seem to have better power left handed, 58 homers left handed and 34 right handed. Granted he gets more ab's from the left side since there are less left handed pitchers. But in 2013 Wieters hit .214/.270/.358 from the left side. After the change to his stance Wieters was hitting .325/.367/.482 left handed. That is one heck of a jump. If this change to his stance allows him to keep hitting like this left handed his bat will help make up for the players the Orioles have lost.

Chris Davis had one heck of a disaster of a season in 2014. The batting average under .200. The suspension for something he had approval to take before and now has approval to take again ( anyone else confused by all of this? I know I am ) . There is just no way he could be as bad as this past season. Davis was approved by MLB for Adderall use this season (the drug he was suspended for using last season - go figure) and new hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh has expressed confidence in a renewed Chris Davis this season. Also both he and Matt Wieters are in walk years, and will be looking to get paid big time.

Something else to think about: JJ Hardy had a back issue last year that may have lead to his down year, power-wise. If his back issues are gone we could see the return of the 20-30 homer JJ. As well there is the hope that Jonathan Schoop improves at the plate. He hit 16 homers as a rookie, but his BA was not great and at times he appeared to be swinging for the moon. If he can become a bit more selective and maybe just try and make contact instead of trying to kill the ball all the time he could have a good season and easily hit over 20 homers.

One theory as to why the Orioles have not gone after any of the free agent outfielders is that Dariel Alvarez may be on the verge of joining the big league club. He hit .309/.332/.487 with 14 homers in 359 AB's in double A last year. I don't think he will make the team out of spring training, but he is someone to keep an eye out for and he could make a big impact in 2015.

Then there is the pitching. The Orioles pitching, especially from June on, was a giant strength of the team. They have all 6 of their potential starters back. Gausman now has pretty much a full season in the bigs under his belt. He could be poised to take a big step and become the ever elusive “ace” of the staff. Also there is the bull pen. Yes they lost Andrew Miller, and yes he was fantastic in his short time in Baltimore. But everyone seems to forget this, the Orioles pen was really really good before the trade for Miller. It sucks to lose him. He was great, but this pen should be fine without him.

So yeah this offseason has been not so much fun. And it isn't over yet. So who knows. But even if nothing else is done, I still think this is a team that can win this division.

Matt Baggette @mlb930