Thursday, October 9, 2014

All Hail St. Peter

It’s late December 2013. It’s announced that the Orioles are close to signing Grant Balfour to a 2 year/$15M contract to replace departed closer Jim Johnson. O’s fans get giddy with excitement, anticipating another piece of the puzzle falling into place. But then…

Rumours begin to trickle out that Balfour has failed his physical. The rumours turn out to be true and several days later Orioles GM Dan Duquette announces a deal will not be happening. A large group of Orioles fans rage and media personnel start firing their shots, first blaming Duquette, then, deciding Dan is just a puppet, they move on to Satan himself – owner Peter Angelos. I heard it all that week.

“THE ORIOLES DON’T CARE ABOUT WINNING!”

“THE ORIOLES WILL NEVER WIN AS LONG AS ANGELOS OWNS THE TEAM!”

“ANGELOS IS CHEAP! HE WILL NEVER SPEND WHAT IT TAKES FOR THIS TEAM TO CONTEND!”

Those are some of the more tame quotes, but you get the idea.

Fast forward ten months. The Orioles are on the cusp of their first World Series berth in 31 years. As they prepare to face the Kansas City Royals in the ALCS, a surprising announcement comes through that the Orioles have extended short stop J.J. Hardy – 3 years/$40M, with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Owner of the Orioles for 21 years, Peter Angelos has taken a
lot of flack from fans and media. With the team's recent turn
around, it's time to finally give him the credit he deserves.
Now before we go any further, I want to make a few things clear. I am not an Angelos apologist. I do not think Angelos is a great owner (nor do I think he’s the devil incarnate). And I do not solely blame Angelos for all the years of losing in Baltimore. Poor decisions by GMs, terrible drafting and weak on-field managing contributed greatly. But now, here we are – Angelos still owns the team and yet they just completed a third winning season, making the playoffs for the second time in three years. And money is being spent.

Truth be told, I have no idea where the “Angelos is cheap!” rumours started. Maybe it was his refusal to pay Mike Mussina back in 2001 (definitely a black mark against him). Maybe it was all the years of losing. But if you look back, you will see that Peter Angelos has always spent money when it made sense to do so.

I understand that people wanted players like Vlad Guerrero (the first time), Mark Teixeira or AJ Burnett (also the first time), but they didn’t make sense at the time. As fans, it’s easy to spend money that is not ours, but spending $50M+ to go from a 68-win team to a 72-win team just isn't logical.

The Orioles were among the highest payrolls in baseball in the late 90s. They were second to the Yankees from 1995-97, first in 1998 and fifth in 1999. They made back to back ALCS appearances in ’96 and ’97 and likely would have returned to the playoffs in 1998 were it not for a slew of injuries. Then the wheels fell off.  For years it didn’t make sense to spend big money, but even then, Angelos decided to take a shot when he felt the O’s were close enough, committing over $125M to Miguel Tejada (a season removed from an MVP award), Javy Lopez, Sidney Ponson and Rafael Palmeiro before the 2004 season.

He signed Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and Adam Jones to long, wealthy extensions during the lean years.

This offseason, he gave the okay on a $52M deal for Ubaldo Jimenez (which admittedly hasn’t worked out so far) and $8M for Nelson Cruz – the biggest bargain in all of major league baseball this season.

That’s a lot of money spent over the years by a “cheap” owner. And dare we get into the deals that weren’t made?

Over the years, Angelos and the organization have drawn criticism for not signing the likes of Teixeira (how’s that working out for the Yanks the last couple season?), Carlos Delgado, Ivan Rodriguez, Prince Fielder, Burnett, Jayson Werth, Zack Greinke and this past offseason alone, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Bronson Arroyo, Burnett again, Jim Johnson and, of course, Grant Balfour.

Some of those players performed well on short deals, but most were either way too expensive or did not even come close to living up to their deals. Looking at the deals players from this past off-season received and how they performed, I’d say ol’ Pete is coming up roses. Ellsbury is the only guy who might eventually come close to being worth what he was given. None of the remaining players even finished the season, either due to injury or ineffectiveness.

I understand the emotions that come with being a fan, but restraint is needed. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t disappointed when the Balfour deal fell through, but the World Series is not won in November. As fans we need to be willing to let the process play out and see what the outcome is. As it turns out, Grant Balfour will have a comfy seat in front of his TV to potentially watch the Orioles play in the World Series.

I will say again, I am not a Peter Angelos apologist. I think he has some serious shortcomings as an owner, most notably the way he interacts (or doesn’t interact) with the fan base to create a more positive image for himself and more trust between his organization and the city that supports it. But there are far more brutal owners across baseball (and all pro sports) – owners who truly don’t care about winning, who pinch pennies because all their care about is squeezing every last bit of profit out of their teams, and who totally disregard their fans.

No matter how you feel about Angelos, he doesn’t fall into any of those three categories.
Over the last few years, I’ve heard so many people get credit for the winning seasons here in Baltimore – the players, Andy MacPhail, Buck Showalter, Dan Duquette, and so on, all very much deserved. But there’s one person missing from that list and after all the abuse and hatred he’s endured over the years, it’s high time he finally gets credit where it’s due.

As Orioles fans, it’s time we collectively tipped our cap to the man at the top - Peter Angelos.

--Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

Thursday, October 2, 2014

OTW Opinion: Who's Pitching In The Playoffs?

The Orioles are in a great spot to make the postseason for the second time in three years. They face a difficult decision as to how to configure their postseason roster, specifically the pitching staff. What does the Off The Warehouse staff think the O's should do with their pitchers?


Matt Baggette
Starters: Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris
Bullpen: Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Darren O'day, Tommy Hunter, Brad Brach, Kevin Gausman  T.J. McFarland

Tillman and Chen are no doubters to start.Norris has been consistent this year. Norris also strikes me as a high energy guy that would either thrive or wilt in the playoffs,I am banking on thriving. Gonzalez has been real good lately. He never seems to get rattled and pitched great in his one playoff start in 2012. Gausman moves to the pen and can come in in a jam and strike guys out and be long man insurance. O'day,Miller,Hunter and Britton can make it a six inning game. Brach can be used in any number of ways,as a long man if someone struggles,to come in in a jam in the middle of a game. I don't want to see Matusz on a mound in the playoffs unless the Orioles are facing the Angels,as he owns Josh Hamilton. I am taking only 11 pitchers so they can have an extra man on the bench.And yes at this moment Ubaldo Jimenez is not on my roster.

Christopher Mills
Starters: Chris Tillman, Bud Norris,Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez
Bullpen: Kevin Gausman, Brad Brach, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Darren O'Day, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton

Tillman is on a tear, allowing 3 earned runs or less in his last 16 starts. He's found his groove and is a no-doubter for the top slot. Norris gets my second spot because of his home and road splits. He has been by far the O's best starter at OPACY and his road numbers are significantly worse. He also had the best WHIP of any O's starter this season. If you want to maximize on matchups, Norris goes here. Chen follows for obvious reasons - he's the next best pitcher, he's a lefty, and most importantly, his 1.6 BB/9, which leads the staff (starters and relievers) by far, and is key in the playoffs. Gonzo has been Mr. Consistency this season and is an easy choice to round out the staff. Gausman struggled a bit the last couple months or I might have had him in the rotation. He excelled in the bullpen last season and his HR/9 and strikeout potential make him very valuable as a long man in the playoffs.

The bullpen is fairly easy, though that's not to say Buck won't break with convention, as is often the case. I include Matusz because a specialist always comes in handy and even though his numbers aren't dazzling, I don't see a better option. Brach gets lefties out extremely well, but he's not a one-batter pitcher. TJ could also sneak in if the Orioles go with a 12-man pen in the playoffs, but I don't see a need or a place for him. He's been very ineffective this season. The rest are elementary, and if the O's starters can get through 6 innings, a 7-8-9 of Miller, O'Day and Britton is all but a lock right now. I have full confidence in the O's pitching going into the playoffs.

Nathan Mullenax
Starters: Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris
Bullpen: Kevin Gausman, T.J. McFarland, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Andrew Miller, Darren O'Day, Zach Britton

Tillman, Chen, and Gonzalez are the easy picks for starters. Tillman is our best pitcher and Chen and Gonzo have been solid all year, and came through with good starts in the 2012 postseason. However, I don't put Gausman in the rotation for the postseason, and I actually made that decision before Gausman's recent struggles on the mound. Norris gets the nod from me because he has more experience in the Majors and he has been just a bit more consistent on the mound this year.

Gausman, however, will be included as the long man out of the pen. He would be a great asset if, say, Norris makes me look foolish by giving up three runs in the 3rd and loading the bases with one out in the 4th. Gausman has the ability to get you out of an early jam with his strikeout stuff and continue to pitch for an inning or two. The inclusion of Matusz may be a surprise, but I would use him strictly as a lefty specialist in the postseason. While he hasn't been very effective this season, he can still get the job done against left-handed hitters and pitched well overall in 2012. I chose McFarland over Brach (who does basically the same job as Tommy Hunter) because I wanted another lefty option in the pen, and he could be very useful if the O's find themselves going to extra innings, as they did multiple times in the 2012 playoffs.

Pat Maher
Starters: Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris
Bullpen: Kevin Gausman, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Tommy Hunter, Brad Brach, Darren O'Day, Brian Matusz

Take away Chris Tillman's two one inning debacles in Pittsburgh and Texas, his ERA for the season sits at 2.73, which would be good for 7th in the American league.  Wei-Yin Chen has proven that he can finally consistently give the Orioles 6-7 good innings per start, a vast change from years past when he seemed to hit a brick wall after the 5th inning.  Miguel Gonzalez, who spent some time down in the minors as the Ubaldo Jimenez experiment ultimately came to a close, has given up more than three earned runs a grand total of three times this season.  These three pitchers look like the locks for a playoff rotation come October.  Bud Norris fills out this rotation, taking the last spot from future phenom Kevin Gausman.  While Gausman currently features a slightly better ERA, Bud Norris has pitched to a better WHIP, H/9, BB/9, and SO/9 so far this season.  I have no doubt in my mind that Kevin Gausman will be a top of the rotation starter very soon, but Bud Norris has stated his case to be a starter come playoff time.

Kevin Gausman will feature as the long man for the Orioles' playoff bullpen, replacing the current long-man Ubaldo Jimenez, who has not earned himself a spot on the playoff roster this season (which is a damn shame).  Brad Brach comes in as the middle reliever, sporting a 2.61 ERA and 1.123 WHIP, which is more than enough to earn his place on the bench in left-center field. Lefty-specialist Brian Matusz beats out lefty TJ McFarland because of McFarland's tendency to give up a lot of hits in his appearances (McFarland sports a 1.443 WHIP compared to Matusz's 1.371).  At this point, we get to the no-brainers.  Despite failing in his role as closer in the beginning of the season, Tommy Hunter has found his old form in the mid-late inning set up role.  Trade deadline acquisition Andrew Miller has pitched as advertised and has a keen ability to get the big outs when needed.  Darren O'Day is arguably the best reliever in game this year, earning himself a t-shirt night, an honor shared by Oriole greats such as Felix Pie, Ty Wigginton, and Koji Uehara.  Last and most certainly not least, the O's trot out their closer, Zach Britton.  Zach Britton has been a pleasant surprise after he was thrown into his role replacing Tommy Hunter.  Britton has looked absolutely unhittable at times and will prove an important piece in making a deep playoff run.

Ultimately, the starting pitching will prove to being the key in that deep run, however having one of the best bullpens in the game will prove most valuable in times where one run could determine a world champion.