Monday, March 30, 2015

My 10 Favorite Moments from one hell of a Season

The 2014 Orioles season ended bitterly. Getting swept in the ALCS was not the plan. It sucked. It took awhile to shake off. But you know what, the 2014 season was awesome. The team overcame many injuries to star players and ran away with the division. There were so many great moments from the season. So to feel good about what was a great season I am gonna make a list of my 10 favorite moments from this year ( and making it just 10 wasn't easy,a lot of awesome stuff happened). This list will be in chronological order,so from opening day till the end of the season. So here we go,my ten favorite moments from 2014.

Opening Day.
Nelson Cruz welcome to Baltimore!! Nelly would launch a homer that would help the Os to an 2-1 opening day win over the hated RedSoxs. It was a sign of things to come from the slugger, as Nelly had an all-star season, leading all of baseball with 40 homers. The fun with Cruz started right away and would only keep getting better all year long.

4/8/14 @ Yankees.
The Orioles would end their first series vs the evil Yankees facing their prized pitcher in Masahiro Tanaka in his home debut. Tanaka was off to a great start and it seemed no one could hit him. In steps Johnathan Schoop. Launching a 3 run homer to give the Os the lead in the second inning. It was a moment that had me yelling and pumping my fist (Schoop would take him deep again latter in the year as well,another awesome moment that didn't make my list) , Tanaka would get a no decision,but the Os proved they could beat him.

5/1/14 vs Pitt
Thanks to tones of rain all week this day would be a double header. The Os would take game one. Game two was supposed to be a big moment for one reason,it was the first game of the year for Manny Machado. While that was great to see the game wouldn't be all about Manny. Chris Tillman threw what seemed like a million pitches in the first inning. The Pirates took a first inning 2-0 lead. The Orioles would battle back and tie the game. The game went into extras. Matt Wieters would lead off the tenth inning,and he would do it with a bang. Wieters hit a ball out to right field for the walk off homer,ending a long long day of baseball and sending me and all of birdland off to sleep vary happy.

6/23/14 vs White Soxs
This went from one of the most frustrating games to one of the most awesome wins of the season. The Orioles were facing the Soxs left handed ace in Chris Sale. With Chris Davis struggling, he would not be in the starting lineup. The Orioles had several scoring chances against Sale and failed over and over. All the while the Soxs managed to take a 4-2 lead. Caleb Joseph would hit a homer in the 8th to make it a one run game. In the 9th the Os would get two runners on. And then in stepped Chris Davis to pinch hit. Since he had been struggling who knew what to expect. When Davis made contact I was screaming at my TV,yelling for the ball to get out,while jumping up and down. When the ball left the park I went nuts. I don't think I yelled so much at any other moment of the season.

8/8/14 vs Cards
The Orioles would wear throwback uniforms this night. They would crush six homers in a 12-2 win. But the real moment came after the game. This night was the 60th year celebration. And it was Omazing. All the former players that were there. The amazing video package. I won't even try to lie about it, I cried,a lot. It was just one of those special nights, a great win and and even better show after.
Gif credit: baltimorsportsreport.com


8/18/14 @ White Soxs
The Os were up 3-0 and Bud Norris seemed to be in complete control. Then came the 7th inning. The Soxs got two runs. And had another runner on. Conor Gillaspie stepped to the plate. He launched a ball into right field. I had my head down thinking crud there goes the lead. Then Nick Markakis leaped in the air, crashed into the wall. And yes!! he had caught the ball to take away a go ahead homer and end the inning. The Os would then score 5 in the 8th and win easy. Nick's catch saved the day. It was one of the best catches I have ever seen. If he doesn't win the gold glove this year, just stop giving them out.

8/25/14 vs Rays
Orioles win big 9-1. The reason I will remember this game always is for Adam Jones. Evan Longoria hit a ball to center field. And Adam Jones made a great catch to rob a homer. And then if that wasn't enough, he threw a bullet into second base to nail the runner trying to tag from first. Adam turning a homer into a double play was just so much fun. And seeing how pumped AJ was made it even better.

9/16/14 vs Jays
This is a moment we will all remember. It had only been 17 years since the last time we could say the Orioles were AL East champs. But this night it would happen. What to pick from this game? Ubaldo Jimenez after a year full of inconsistency picking up the win by retiring the final 10 batters he faced ? The Steve Pearce homer to give the Os the lead in the first? Nick Markakis face after the game ? The post game celebration with the fans on the field? All of the above. The post game stuff will never be deleted from this guys drv. Nick's face makes me smile every time. Adam Jones pieing fans was so cool. Tears flowed. Every part of that game I will cherish forever.

10/3/14 vs Tigers ALDS
Chen had ten horrible pitches. But the Orioles kept fighting and waiting for the chance to get another crack at the horrible Tigers bullpen. Down 6-3 in the 8th here came the Tigers pen. Loading the bases and having giving up one run already. Leading to Delmon Young pinch hitting. First pitch, left field corner. One run scores, two runs score, JJ Hardy heading home, and sliding in just safe!! I have watched it too many times to count. Seeing Nelson Cruz rolling on the ground as JJ scored gets me every time. Camden Yards went insane. It was a moment I don't think any of us will ever forget.

10/5/14 @ Tigers ALDS
I wanted a sweep. I didn't want to let the Tigers back in this series. Cruz hits a homer to give the Os a 2-0 lead. We move to the 9th. Zach Britton who was lights out in the regular season comes in to nail the series down. He promptly gives up back to back doubles to make it a one run game. I was beyond nervous. I was in fact ready to puke. Buck walks out to the mound, the Os walk Nick Castellanos intentionally, putting the go ahead run on. Then Zach with his tremendous ability to get ground balls got one, hit to Ryan Flaherty, 5-4-3. Double Play!! Os advance. And we could all breath again.

It was a great year. It didn't end how we wanted. But there were these ten moments, with countless others, that made this one hell of a fun year. I can't wait to see what 2015 brings.

Matt Baggette @ mlb930

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Can I buy a vowel...and a win?

In light of Chris Davis's interview with the Baltimore Sun a couple weeks ago that had social media ablaze, I finally decided to take a look at an age old debate – does payroll have a direct relation to wins? In his interview, Davis was discussing his future and suggested he needed to see more of a commitment from the Orioles to their future before he would consider an extension. He said he did not want to sign on long-term with a losing team and cited teams like Boston, New York and Toronto as those who spend to win.
Looking to rebound from a forgettable
season, Chris Davis polarized Orioles
fans with his recent interview.
The only problem with Davis’s claim is that he selected three teams that don’t win; at least not recently or with any kind of consistency. In the past three seasons, the Baltimore Orioles have two playoff appearances. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays have two playoff appearances in that span as well – COMBINED.
Granted, the Red Sox won a World Series in that time, but it was a bit soured by the fact that they sandwiched it between two last place finishes. Imagine having a sandwich with the most succulent and tasty roast beef you’ve ever had in your life, but instead of bread, you get two moldy sponges that were used to scrub a public toilet. I’ll let that image marinate in your mind for a minute…
Now let’s move on.
I was surprised by Davis’s comments for two reasons:
  1. He’s coming off an abysmal offensive year – he hit just .196 – in which he also managed to get himself suspended. Someone in his position should be the last one to speak up about the quality of the team or its desire to win.
  2. Davis has been a part of an Orioles team that is second only to the Oakland Athletics in wins in the American League since the start of 2012. And he doesn’t see a team that’s committed to winning?
But there’s a deeper issue here, one evidenced by the shocking amount of fans who have sided with Davis: the obsession with a team’s payroll and the belief that it is directly related to wins, even when recent evidence seems to show the contrary (see: Pittsburgh, KC, Tampa Bay, etc.). Having a ton of money to spend definitely helps, but it can be overcome through good scouting, smart drafts, and smart spending and personnel decisions.

Take the Cardinals as an example. They decided Albert Pujols, a hometown hero, was too rich for their blood and let him go to Anaheim. Fans weren’t happy, but they trusted the front office. All the Cardinals have done is make the playoffs each year since, including a World Series appearance. Albert has gone to the playoffs just once in three seasons with the mega-spending Angels, and they were knocked off by an upstart wildcard team in Kansas City in the first round. So why has Nick Markakis become a tipping point for Orioles players and fans, especially when the team has proven their method produces results over the past three years?
Rather than bash Chris Davis (even though I STRONGLY disagreed with his comments), I want to look at the deeper issue of payroll vs. success. I’m going to look at playoff teams from the last 10 seasons and where they ranked in terms of payroll, and then see if any conclusions can be drawn from that.
Below are the playoff teams for each season, with their MLB payroll rank in parentheses. Bold = World Series winner.

2014: Dodgers (1), Tigers (5), Angels (6), Giants (7), Nationals (9), Cardinals (13), Orioles (15), Royals (19), Athletics (25), Pirates (27)
2013: Dodgers (2), Red Sox (4), Tigers (5), Cardinals (10), Reds (13), Braves (16), Pirates (20), Indians (21), Athletics (27), Rays (28)
2012: Yankees (1), Tigers (5), Rangers (6), Giants (8), Cardinals (9), Braves (16), Reds (17), Orioles (19), Nationals (20), Athletics (29),
2011: Yankees (1), Phillies (2), Tigers (10), Cardinals (11), Rangers (13), Brewers (17), Diamondbacks (25), Rays (29)
2010: Yankees (1), Phillies (4), Giants (10), Twins (11), Braves (15), Reds (19), Rays (21), Rangers (27)
2009: Yankees (1), Red Sox (4), Angels (6), Phillies (7), Dodgers (9), Cardinals (13), Rockies (18), Twins (24)
2008: Red Sox (4), White Sox (5), Angels (6), Dodgers (7), Cubs (8), Phillies (12), Brewers (15), Rays (29)
2007: Yankees (1), Red Sox (2), Angels (4), Cubs (8), Phillies (13), Indians (23), Rockies (25), Diamondbacks (26)
2006: Yankees (1), Mets (5), Dodgers (6), Cardinals (11), Tigers (14), Padres (17), Twins (19), Athletics (21)
2005: Yankees (1), Red Sox (2), Angels (5), Cardinals (6), Braves (10), Astros (12), White Sox (13), Padres (17)

The 2009 New York Yankees are the only team in the last 10
years to win the World Series with the league's top payroll (and
the only playoff team with the highest payroll in a given year
to win it).                                                                                        
So what are some trends we can draw from this?
First of all, let’s look at the World Series winners. The worst payroll ranking by a World Series champion in the last 10 years was the 2005 White Sox at 13th, followed by the 2006 and 2001 Cardinals, both 11th. So perhaps a reasonable argument can be made that in order to win the World Series, you need to spend money, but at the same time, only 3 of 30 Top 5 payroll teams won a WS in the last 10 years, so clearly spending alone does not do the trick.
Facts of note from last 10 seasons:
  • Since 2005, 23 of 50 Top 5 payroll teams made the playoffs – that’s less than half. 
  • 2009 Yankees were the only team to win the WS with the highest payroll of the playoff teams in a given season
  • 25th and 29th ranked teams have each made the playoffs three times. #2 ranked teams have only made the playoffs 4 times.
  • The #3 ranked team in payroll has not made the playoffs at all in the last 10 seasons.
  • Ranks 1-10 produced 42 of 86 playoff teams. Ranks 11-20 have produced 28 of 86. Ranks 21-30 have produced 16 of 86.
Looking at all these facts, what conclusions can be drawn?
Well, it’s obvious you don’t have to spend a ton of money to win, but it’s very difficult if you don’t. Nearly half of the playoff teams in the last 10 years were ranked 10th or better in payroll, so clearly spending money improves your chances of winning.
However, looking at the amount of teams who are ranked 20th or worse in payroll and still made the playoffs, and looking at all the teams in the Top 10 who missed the playoffs or failed to advance past the first round, it’s clear that good scouting and drafts and a smart front office can make up for a lack of payroll, and conversely, simply throwing a ton of money at top players does not guarantee success.
The majority of WS teams in the last 10 years were ranked 7-13 in payroll. This suggests that balance is required; that teams do need to spend in the upper half of the league in order to be able to bring home a championship, but that money must also be well spent. A huge checkbook is no substitute for sound personnel decisions and spending money in the right places.
The Orioles are currently ranked 12th in payroll for 2015. 6 of the 11 teams ahead of them failed to make the playoffs last season, including 3 of the teams Chris Davis cited as being those who spend to win: Yankees, Red Sox, Jays.
While I don’t fault Davis for his assertion that teams need to spend to win, his assertion that the Orioles don’t spend, while other teams in the division do, holds no water in this case because the Orioles are in the top half of the league in spending and are, by far, the most successful team in the AL East in the last three seasons.
What irks me most is Davis’s comment that he doesn’t want to sign long-term to play for a loser every year, implying that’s the type of team the Orioles are because they don’t spend like their division mates. Coming from a guy who has been a member of a team that is second only to the Athletics in wins the last three seasons, I would expect Davis to have a little more confidence in his team. Especially when Dan and Buck’s system produced 96 wins last year despite losing Matt Wieters and Manny Machado for most of the season, and a horrid year (including a suspension) from Davis himself.
As much as I hate to make this comparison, Dan Duquette is, in some ways, the Bill Belichick of MLB. He finds ways to do more with less, and is more concerned with bringing in players who fit his system and ideology than big-name star power. (And hey – Belichick just won a title this year for the first time since 2004 – which, coincidentally, is the last time a Dan Duquette-constructed team won the World Series.)
Do I wish the Orioles would have done more this offseason? Yes. Do I think they’re doomed this season because they didn’t? Not a chance.
Why? 2012. 2013. 2014. That’s why. 274 wins, 2 playoff berths and a division crown. There are less than 5 teams who can claim a better stretch during that span. I may not agree with every decision this organization makes, but people - fans AND players - need to move beyond 1998-2011. Those years are gone. The team is in different hands now – smarter hands. The farm system is rich, depth has increased and sound personnel decisions are being made.
I understand fans being a little antsy, but a player who’s been through it all the last 3 years? I’m really disappointed in Chris Davis.
And for all you fans out there who still insist that spending money guarantees wins and championships – I have some beachfront property in Wyoming I’d like to sell you.

-- Christopher Mills, @cjmills82