Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Much Ado About Ubaldo

For now, Ubaldo will look for greener pastures out in the bullpen. (USATSI)

Going into this past offseason, the one clear area of need for the Orioles was starting pitching. As a whole, the team's starters performed rather poorly in 2013, finishing 18th in ERA, 26th in innings pitched, and 27th in strikeouts. Due to some injuries and acquisitions, there was little stability in the rotation. Ten different starters made at least five starts for the O's, and four more pitchers made one spot start each. How about a little trivia: How many of those 14 pitchers can you name (answers below)?

Though the Birds had a bright future to look forward to with Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy continuing to mature, along with Chris Tillman becoming the de facto ace after posting a 16-7 record in 2013, they still needed to do something in the offseason to upgrade their rotation. Hammel and Feldman were free agents. Arrieta was traded to the Cubs to acquire Feldman. Freddy Garcia went into an Old Country Buffet and was never seen from again. A rotation of Tillman, Gonzalez, Chen, Norris, and Gausman was possible, but Gausman had still not proven himself at the Major League Level, and any injury to that group would have meant the likes of McFarland or Stinson pitching every fifth day, which would cause women and children to vomit in terror.

The only sure thing among free agent pitchers this offseason was Masahiro Tanaka, but he was too expensive for the O's given the silly posting rules that require teams to put up extreme sums of money just for the opportunity to make eye contact with various NPB* players. The rest of the pitching market was full of B- and C-list pitchers. Out of a group of Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Bronson Arroyo, and A.J. Burnett, the O's went with Ubaldo, who carried the most risk but also the most upside of any pitcher, for four years and $50 million. But so far this season, Ubaldo has been a big disappointment. After losing to his old team on Saturday, he currently sports a 4-9 record with a 4.83 ERA and 5.4 BB/9. This prompted manager Buck Showalter to announce that Ubaldo will be moved into the bullpen, at least for the time being. But with 39 games left in the season and three more years under contract, what should the O's do with Ubaldo moving forward? 

Let's start with some of the less intelligent suggestions I've heard from fans...

"Send him down!"
The thing about baseball is, teams can't just send any player to the minors any time they want. After guys have been in the league for a few years, they can't go down to the minors unless they agree to it. If Ubaldo doesn't agree to it (and why would he?), he's free to sign with another team, or free even to sit at home and collect his $50 million.

"Just cut him!"
Ubaldo has been a disappointment this year, but like many pitchers he has good years and bad years. Just because this is a bad year doesn't mean he won't be able to get his mojo back in Year 2 or Year 3 of the contract. Let's not forget that contracts in baseball are guaranteed; cutting him does not absolve the team from paying the remainder of his $50 million contract. The same fans that are clamoring to see him off the team would be beside themselves if he were to catch on with a club like New York and start hitting his stride.

"Trade him and Flaherty for Yu Darvish!"
You are so dumb. You are really dumb. For real.

Now, moving on to the more feasible solutions...

The Six-Man Rotation
This option is probably only doable once the rosters expand in September, as Buck has stated multiple times he does not like to play a man short in either the bullpen or the bench. However, once the 40-man rosters are allowed in the clubhouse, you could carry a six-man rotation for the month of September. This could also carry the advantage of keeping the starters better rested for the postseason. If the Orioles enter the final month with a sizeable lead, this could be their best option.

Keep Him In The Bullpen
The O's could keep the rotation intact and leave Ubaldo in the bullpen, like a bull in some kind of pen. It is difficult to say how this move will work out, as Ubaldo has practically no experience as a reliever and it is unclear as to how he's going to be used down the stretch. This could also end up being the plan in 2015, as all Baltimore starters are under team control next season.

Keep Him In The Rotation
Well, that's the entire problem and purpose of this column. If that were a solution, this entire experience will have been a waste of my time and yours.

Tandem Him With Another Starter
This is slightly different than the six-man rotation. Rather than getting a full start every sixth game, Ubaldo would be paired with another starter to create a tandem. The idea is that each pitcher throws around 75 pitches, which could give your bullpen a night off if the pitchers are effective. The probable partners in this scenario are Gonzalez or Gausman. Sounds great, right? No, no it does not. In addition to making the rotation worse, this also thins out the bullpen in the same manner as the six-man rotation.

So as much as I'd love to see Ubaldo turn it around, it appears for now the best option is to keep him in the bullpen. If he can show some effectiveness in long relief, he could be an asset in the postseason. Let's wait until Spring Training to give him another shot at the rotation, though.

Answer: Chris Tillman (33 starts), Miguel Gonzalez (28), Jason Hammel (23), Wei-Yin Chen (23), Scotty Too Hotty Feldman (15), Freddy Garcia (10), Budrick Thatherton Norris (9), Zach Britton (7), Kevin Gausman (5), Jake Arrieta (5), T.J. McFarland (1), Jair Jurrjens (1), Steve Johnson (1), John Steveson Josh Stinson (1)

*What's NPB? "NPB stands for Nippon Professional Baseball."
Oh....what's Nippon? "Nippon is what Japanese people call Japan."
Ah, ok....what's Japan? "Leave me alone."

--Nathan Mullenax (@otwNathan)

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