BTS Hot Stove - LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

Welcome to the BTS Hot Stove! Watch your hands folks, or you'll get burned worse than Pat Maher after he was caught listening to his favorite Britney Spears CD.

We've selected our Top 25 FAs and each writer has predicted which team each player will call home for the 2016 season. Let's see who's right...and who's dumb enough to end up with a career on ESPN.

Feel free to criticize Nathan's picks - that's what we're here for, folks!!

Free Agent	Matt	Nathan	Pat	Christopher
Yoenis Cespedes	Mets	D-Backs	Mets	Mets
Wei-Yin Chen	Angels	Nationals	Angels	Tigers
Johnny Cueto	Red Sox	D-Backs	Yankees	Rangers
Chris Davis	Orioles	Mets	Orioles	Orioles
Ian Desmond	Mets	Reds	Reds	Marlins
Doug Fister	Orioles	Rangers	Rangers	Rockies
Dexter Fowler	Indians	Angels	Tigers	Cardinals
Yovani Gallardo	Yankees	Angels	Rangers	Royals
Alex Gordon	Orioles	Reds	Orioles	Orioles
Zack Greinke	Dodgers	Cubs	Giants	Dodgers
Jason Heyward	Dodgers	Padres	Yankees	Angels
Hisashi Iwakuma	Red Sox	Blue Jays	Mariners	Mariners
Scott Kazmir	Royals	Marlins	Orioles	Orioles
Howie Kendrick	Royals	Brewers	Angels	Dodgers
John Lackey	Cardinals	Red Sox	Cardinals	Cardinals
Mike Leake	Giants	Mariners	Pirates	Giants
Daniel Murphy	Angels	Reds	Red Sox	Mets
Darren O'Day	Orioles	Rays	Red Sox	Tigers
David Price	Cubs	Blue Jays	Cubs	Cubs
Colby Rasmus	Mariners	Astros	Astros	Indians
Jeff Samardzija	Red Sox	Tigers	Blue Jays	Yankees
Justin Upton	Rangers	Twins	Astros	Rangers
Matt Wieters	Braves	Braves	Nationals	Braves
Jordan Zimmermann	Blue Jays	Red Sox	Yankees	Red Sox
Ben Zobrist	Yankees	Orioles	Nationals	Yankees

The Buck stops...where?

Sitting here watching the Orioles attempt to painfully surrender any hope of reaching the post season, I’m reminded of frustrations past – a late season collapse in 2013 and…well, any season from 1998-2011. But with those teams you could at least see it coming. The team had weaknesses and certain things were just not sustainable. While both of those may factor in this season, that should not be the case.

I know everyone will point to the losses of Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz (which were sizeable, no question), but even then, on paper at least, the Orioles were still the deepest team in the AL East entering the season. And though he’s disappeared lately, Jimmy Paredes did a fine job of making us forget all about Nelson Cruz the first two months of the season.

Buck Showalter has long been recognized as one of the most
intelligent and meticulous baseball minds, but his career has
been marked by a seeming inability to find an effective way
to motivate his players.                                                               

While there is plenty of finger pointing to go around (from Dan Duquette’s decision to replace his departing FAs with a plethora of AAAA outfielders, to key players like Paredes, Miguel Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez completely imploding in the second half), I think a sizeable amount of the blame for this season falls squarely on the shoulders of one man – and it’s not going to make me popular, I know. The reality is, a lot of the issues this season can be traced to Buck Showalter.

Now before you go flying off the deep end, hear me out. And I will also say up front that I like Buck. He has done some fantastic things since he arrived, but I think the turnaround he brought has also masked some of his deficiencies. 

In each of Buck’s past managerial stops, his teams went to the World Series almost immediately after he departed as manager. The Yankees ( 1996) and the Diamondbacks (2001) both won it the season after his departure.  The Rangers never finished higher than 3^rd in his tenure, and after a last place finish the year after he left, they posted back to back 2^nd place finishes before back to back World Series appearances.  So what’s the problem?

In Buck’s previous stops, he had a reputation for being a hardass. He would ban music and games from the clubhouse and was really strict with players. Clearly that is not the case in Baltimore, but I would argue he has gone to the opposite extreme, to the detriment of the ball club. It seems he is so afraid of repeating the mistakes of the past that he refuses to hold his players accountable or dole out any discipline to players who fail to perform or who repeat the same mistakes ad nauseum. Picture that parent who is so obsessed with being their child’s best friend that they allow them to get away with anything rather than discipline them and be seen as the bad guy. Rarely, you may get a child who behaves anyway and does things right, but more often than not, you get undisciplined and poorly behaved children. That’s what I see in Baltimore right now – a lack of discipline. When your star player comes out and says that the team doesn’t get frustrated or disappointed by losses, that’s a big problem. Is it supposed to reflect well on a team that playing poorly and getting beat doesn’t inspire any negative feelings?

The reality is, whether being too hard or too soft on his players, Buck has a weakness when it comes to finding an effective way to motivate his players. This team has consistently displayed a lack of fire this season. I have no doubts they want to win, but they don’t seem to care if they lose. It’s almost the old Little League mantra of “doesn’t matter if we win or lose, as long as we have fun and try hard.” Sorry, but no. This is the major leagues – winning matters.

This is why look at Showalter. I appreciate that he’s calm overall and realizes it’s a 162 game season; no one should get riled up over each loss or bounce off the ceiling with joy after each win – it’s a marathon, not a sprint as Buck likes to say, and on that point I agree.

My problem arises with the fact that Showalter NEVER seems to get angry or fired up. And when players see a manager who is always calm, cool and collected, even after embarrassing losses or long stretches of poor play, they’re going to adopt the same attitude. In what other profession would a boss sit back and pat his employees on the back for a screw-up or a series of poor performances and continue to offer words of encouragement? That’s not how the world works.

I actually had a prominent member of the Baltimore media tell me last year that these are grown men and you don’t discipline grown men. That’s the most preposterous thing I’ve heard in a long time. I’m not saying call them out publicly or humiliate them, but a manager should be laying into the team every now and then when they’re playing poorly to light a fire under them. The fire always seems to be missing from this team because the manager never ignites it. Buck never fires up his players, you don’t win a World Series without that fire and passion, and Buck has never won a World Series – oversimplifying a bit? Maybe, but there’s a connection in there.

A manager is a boss and the players are his employees. He should definitely try to get along with them and connect with them on a meaningful level to earn their trust, but his sole responsibility is getting the most out of his players so they win ballgames; not to try and be their best friend so they won’t get mad at him.

The thing about that “best friend” parent is that for a while they seem cool and people like them – but after a while, respect is lost and people realize the approach just doesn’t work. If this team has any hope of salvaging a playoff berth this season, their leader needs to start holding them accountable and doing whatever he has to do to light that championship fire – going out every night and going through the motions does not and will not cut it. Players need to be held accountable for poor defense, repeatedly poor plate discipline, poor ABs with no regard for game situation, etc. I've seen issues with this team and with certain players throughout the season (and even into past seasons) that continue to occur and don't even seem to get addressed, much less dealt with. 

I’m by no means calling for Buck’s head, but he needs to make some changes to his approach with his players, or he will wear out his welcome in Baltimore sooner rather than later. And he may just wind up taking a back row seat while another one of his former teams makes a run for the trophy.

--Christopher Mills
   @OriolesOTW

The Master Architect begins his annual June shuffle

An obvious trend has emerged in Dan Duquette’s time as General Manager (sorry, Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations) with the Orioles. In a pattern that has annually tested what little patience Orioles fans have, Duquette has crafted an Opening Day roster and stayed the course through the season’s first two months, determined to assess his roster and know what he has before making any concrete decisions moving forward. He and Buck Showalter give players ample opportunity to seize a place in the everyday lineup/starting rotation and run with it – and if not, they fall victim to the June purge.

Though receiving plenty of flack over the last few years for periods of apparent inactivity, Duquette always seems to acquire the right piece/make the right move at the right time to fuel the Orioles fire and set the team on a course for the postseason.

Now that’s not to say nothing ever happens after June – the additions of Manny Machado and Jim Thome in 2012, the additions of Scott Feldman and Bud Norris in 2013 and the addition of Andrew Miller last season all took place later on – but June 1 seems to be that date when Duquette begins to weed out the weak links in the chain and fortify the roster for the long haul.

Don’t believe me? Look at the Orioles records before and after June 1 since Duquette came on board:

           Before June 1     June 1 onward

2012:       29-22                   64-47

2013:       31-24                   54-53

2014:       27-27                   69-39

2015:       23-26                     11-5

In 2012, 2014 and so far in 2015 (though the sample size is limited so far), the team has shown a drastic improvement after June 1. The only exception was 2013, when the team faded badly in September and was unable to sustain their strong start, but the trend of beginning the roster retooling still continued.

So far this year, the return of Matt Wieters has provided a spark to an offense that struggled badly in May (they are 11-2 since his return), and I don’t think Duquette is done. Alejandro De Aza and Everth Cabrera have already been shown the door due to inconsistent play and the strong play of Travis Snider and Ryan Flaherty respectively. And believe me folks, there is more to come, especially with newcomer Chris Parmelee recently exploding onto the scene from Norfolk.

Internally, the Orioles can likely count on Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Schoop providing a significant boost to the team in the second half, with Pearce and possibly others on the hot seat. Mike Wright has also shown potential and could feature in the team’s plans as well.

The Orioles are also in the unique position where they could be a team that both buys and sells at the deadline. The Orioles have many pending FAs and some good pitching depth, so they could trade some of those pending FAs to bring in a masher to man LF or RF – although that may not be needed if Nolan Reimold stays healthy.

It’s all but a certainty that Matt Wieters, Chris Davis or Darren O’Day will not be traded this season. They are too important to the Orioles playoff hopes. Bud Norris is probably the most likely to go, but how much value would he bring back at this point? He has really minimized his value with his poor performances this season. Tommy Hunter is also a possibility, as the O’s have bullpen depth and he likely will not be back next season.

In my opinion, and I’ll probably get flack for this, the Orioles best trade chip is Wei-Yin Chen. He has been solid this season and would likely fetch a good return on the open market. Chen is probably going to be priced out of the Orioles plans this offseason, so why not trade him now and get a good return that could help them down the stretch? Given the most recent roster moves, with Chen potentially unhappy, it may be time for Dan to start pursuing this avenue. The Orioles have options in Gausman and Wright who could step in and fill the void. They may not put up Chen like numbers, but they are capable of coming close and, with an improved offense, would not hurt the Orioles playoff chances.

Regardless of where the team goes from here, Dan Duquette has once again proven that, despite what fans think, he’s not sitting around doing nothing. Just because it may appear he’s sitting back and watching the team flounder early in the season, doesn’t mean he’s not already mentally retooling his roster. He’s always aware of what’s going on, has a fantastic eye for bargains (2012 Nate McLouth, 2013 Danny Valencia, 2014 Steve Pearce, 2015 Jimmy Paredes, etc.) and makes the necessary tweaks to improve the team, while at the same time making sure to maintain the core and not disrupt the chemistry of the clubhouse.

June is off to a good start so far, and I assure you, this will be one of the most exciting seasons yet given all the roster and trade possibilities and directions the Orioles could go in.

So as they say in Birdland…BUCKLE UP! The Orioles success is far from over.

-- Christopher Mills 

    @OriolesOTW

#VoteAnything

Okay, I’ve held out long enough. It’s time for an OTW Public Service Announcement. And yes, this is primarily directed at you, Royals fans.

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you know that eight – yes, EIGHT – members of the Kansas City Royals are on track to start the All-Star Game for the American League. So far only Michael Nelson Trout has been fortunate enough to escape their maniacal fandom.

This year’s voting highlights the problem of blanket votes for one’s team of choice (#VoteOrange, anyone?). I’m a HUGE Orioles fan but by no means do I want to see Ryan Flaherty starting the All-Star Game over the likes of Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve or Jason Kipnis.

I understand voting is fun and everyone wants to support their team, but the ASG isn’t about supporting your team or creating a popularity contest. It’s meant to be a showcase of baseball’s best players in that particular season. And as much as I love Omar Infante…well, just no.

So what’s to be done? The sad fact is that this irresponsible voting of fans who only want to support their players (yes, I said irresponsible) has led to the current debacle. If nothing changes this year, and all these Royals players are in the starting lineup in Cincinnati on July 14, we’re facing the serious possibility of all fans losing their voting privileges.

Kansas City Royals fans are certainly making their voices heard.
But is it good for baseball?

There is debate every year over whether or not fans should keep the vote or not and it’s clear that they cannot be counted on to pick the most deserving players on their own.

So how can the system be fixed? Luckily I’m here to help you, MLB. Follow these easy steps and the ASG will be the event it’s intended to be.

1)      Stop releasing the ballot in April/early May. There’s no way to tell that early who the season’s stars are yet. All you’re doing is promoting this “vote for everyone on my team!” mentality. Wait until June 1 to release the ballot.

2)      Release a ballot with the 5 best players at each position. This way fans still get to select the starters, but we’re guaranteed to get starters who are at very least marginally deserving. (Amendment: if you opt to keep the current system, give managers or the commissioner the right to veto any player they deem undeserving of an ASG start)

3)      Untie the ASG from home field advantage in the World Series. The ASG is an exhibition; a showcase. Who cares if it ends in a tie? Fans in Milwaukee saw 11 innings of high caliber baseball and complained because there was no final result, which landed us here. Yes, seeing a winner is nice, but that’s not the purpose of the ASG. The purpose is to see all the stars from across the league together in one game. If the teams happen to tie, that just means the leagues are balanced that year. Who cares? Making it competitive has actually taken some of the fun out of it and caused managers to use their players in a way that doesn't always allow fans to fully appreciate the appearance of their team's players. 

Beyond that, the only real solution is to take the vote away from fans. If that doesn’t bother you, by all means, use your last weeks of privilege to vote for undeserving players just because of the uniform they happen to wear.

Me? I’ll be voting for the players who have put up the best numbers so far this season; the players the ASG was meant to feature.

So if you have the guts, saddle up and join me…#VoteAnything.

--Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

ORIOLES PREVIEW

Earlier in the offseason, we previewed the upcoming season for the other four teams of the American League East. Now, we wrap things up with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles

2014 Record 96-66

1st in AL East (more like AL LEAST. boom.)

2014 Season Review:

The 2014 season began with a lot of uncertainty. Coming off a magical 2012 season and a solid but unspectacular 2013 season, the thought of fans and baseball analysts alike was that the Orioles needed to do something big to get back to the postseason in 2014. Chris Davis was coming off a monster year and was unlikely to repeat his MVP-caliber numbers. Manny Machado was completely unaware that first base at Tropicana Field was rigged with explosives and was likely to miss Opening Day. The rotation in '13 was lackluster and constantly revolving (remember Freddy Garcia and Jair Jurrjens?), and Jim Johnson struggled at closer despite 50 saves.

So the O's entered 2014 having made two major acquisitions late in the offseason: Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. To most, it did not project to be enough, as the O's were selected by most to fall back into the lower depths of the AL East once again despite a solid core of players.

2014 Timeline

Baltimore spent much of the first half of 2014 merely staying afloat. The team finished April at 12-12, finished May at 27-27, and finished June at 43-39. The team was hitting well in spite of a strange lack of power in April, but the pitching wasn't getting it done. The rotation's ERAs in April, May, and June were 4.74, 4.29, and 3.47 respectively. But the month of July started with a four game sweep of Texas and ended with a successful West Coast road trip, and that momentum stayed with the team throughout the rest of the season. The team finished the final three months of the year at 53-27, coasting to their first AL East division crown since 1997. In the postseason, the O's handled the Tigers to the tune of a three-game sweep, mashing hits off the Detroit bullpen like overly competitive dads at a father-son game. Unfortunately, momentum and luck were not on their side as they met the seemingly unbeatable Kansas City Royals in the ALCS and were themselves swept away.

Disappointments--Despite 96 wins, there were plenty of disappointments in 2014:

• Chris Davis--Crush turned to Mush in 2014, posting a line that makes Adam Dunn say "Yeah, that's about right." Davis followed up his 1.004 OPS season with a mere .704 OPS in 2014. His homers dropped from 53 to 26 and his average plummeted to .196. Davis also missed time with injury and an Adderall suspension that disgraced him in many fans' eyes and barred him from postseason play. For some reason, Davis just didn't appear to have any confidence at the plate in 2014, often striking out on fastballs in the zone. The Orioles are counting on at least some improvement in 2015. Scott Boras is counting on it, too.
• Ubaldo Jimenez--After an impressive second half with the Indians in 2013, Ubaldo was one of a group of B-list starting pitchers on the free agent market. This list ranged from low-risk, low-reward types like Bronson Arroyo and A.J. Burnett, to more volatile pitchers like Ervin Santana and Jimenez. When Ubaldo is commanding his pitches, he's unhittable. When he's not, he's unbearable. For most of 2014 he was the latter, posting a career-high 5.5 BB/9. This led to unbridled outrage amongst O's fans for wasting $50 million on Ubaldo while simultaneously complaining that the team never spends any money. 
• Tommy Hunter--A mild disappointment, Hunter was effective once he was moved back to the setup role. However, as a closer, it's remarkable that he didn't do even more damage than he did. Just about every time he stepped on the mound in the 9th, Hunter allowed at least one baserunner. While he gets credit for handling those tough situations with a certain amused calmness, he was directly responsible for every Orioles fan over 40 referencing Don Stanhouse on EVERY SINGLE APPEARANCE. That got old real fast. 
• Injured stars--Matt Wieters FINALLY seemed to have found the bat that everyone was anticipating when he was drafted by the Orioles. Then, he went and had to have Tommy John surgery and missed most of the season. Why do you hate us so, O Lord? I blame all those innings closing at Georgia Tech. Ever heard of pitch counts, George A. Techmanager?! Manny Machado also appeared to have already started turning some of those doubles into home runs in 2014, hitting 12 in 327 at-bats compared to 14 in 667 at-bats in 2013. Then, Machado's right knee became envious of all the special treatment his left knee got the year before, and promptly disintegrated. Everyone was grumpers that day. 

Pleasant Surprises--A lot of unexpected heroes emerged in 2014. Do you remember them? You should. I mean, it was like four months ago, man.

• Steve Pearce--The Orioles released Steve Pearce on April 27 to make room for, someone, I don't know (you expect me to remember? That was like four months ago, man.). Then a day later Chris Davis got hurt, which prompted Dan Duquette to text Steve Pearce the following: "Jk about ur release. Are we ok? I want u back." Pearce returned to action and absolutely mashed at the plate, posting a .930 OPS and splitting time between first base, and left field. 
• Zach Britton--Once part of the three-headed monster of disappointment along with Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz, Britton was sent to the bullpen in 2014 and found about 4 mph to add to his sinker next to an old rosin bag and Tommy Hunter's copy of BODacious magazine. This turned him from a fringe starter into an extremely effective reliever. Starting off as a long man in 2014, Britton was instrumental in stepping in for struggling starters in April and early May, posting a 0.84 ERA in 21.1 IP before inheriting the closer role. He continued to thrive as a closer due to an astronomical ground ball rate, going so far as to actually "blow" one save in Milwaukee because the opposing batter hit the ball too softly. 
• Caleb Joseph--Throughout his minor league career, the word on the street about Joseph is that he could hit well, particularly against lefties, but that his defensive game was poor. This turned out to be completely wrong in every aspect. Nice job, scouts. Joseph hit like a backup catcher, but his work behind the plate was extraordinary. With Joseph behind the plate, the team ERA was 3.00 and opposing batters OPSed just .667. Joseph also threw out 23 of 57 baserunners, a remarkable 40% rate. 
• Nelson Cruz--Of course we cannot forget about Mr. Cruz. After languishing in the offseason from the stigma of "Old PED User" Cruz finally signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the O's in February. This was substantially lower than he was seeking in the market, but offered him an opportunity to try again following the 2014 season. Cruz absolutely thrived in Camden Yards, blasting 40 home runs and driving in 108 to lead the team in both categories. For the early part of the season, Cruz was the only consistent bat in the lineup, often providing the key hits necessary to keep the team alive in the race through June. 

AL EAST CHAMPS!!! (photo credit: sportige.com )

Key Losses

Nelson Cruz, DH/LF

The steal of the 2014 offseason, Nelson Cruz, found himself signing a 4 year, $57 million contract with the Seattle Mariners.  This is a much prettier deal in Nelson's eyes as opposed to the one-year, $8 million contract that he signed in Baltimore in 2014.  The Orioles were in the running for Cruz to return, but he opted for the better offer. It will be interesting to see how he well he produces moving forward given he will be 35 in July and is moving to pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.  For the Orioles, the question will be how to replace 40 home runs and 104 RBI in their 2015 lineup.  It looks as if they will be counting on Chris Davis to rebound as well as having Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, and JJ Hardy put up some power numbers to go along with Adam Jones' yearly 30 homers.

Nick Markakis, RF

Longtime fan favorite Nick Markakis has moved on to the land of the peaches, signing a 4-year, $44 million contract with the Atlanta Braves.  Markakis had a solid season leading off for the Orioles and was able to compete in his first career playoffs in 2014.  The Orioles originally had a 4-year offer on the table, but that was later reduced to 3 years due to concerns over his neck.  Markakis, who had neck surgery earlier this offseason, looks ready to go for the Braves.  The Orioles have not said who will take Markakis' leadoff role or who will fill the gap in RF, but names like Alejandro De Aza, David Lough, Travis Snider, Everth Cabrera, and Steve Pearce have come up in replacing those positions.  And with recent developments, it sounds like Markakis has some hard feelings towards the contract negotiations with the O's, but it really turns out to be a non-story.  

Andrew Miller, RP

Left handed reliever Andrew Miller, a trade deadline acquisition by the O's, has put on the pinstripes. Miller accepted a 4-year, $36 million from the New York Yankees. It is possible that he could take over the closing job there after David Robertson's departure, but he has some competition there with New York's 2014 breakout reliever, Dellin Betances.   Miller pitched 20 innings for the O's in the regular season and seven in the playoffs and was lights out in both regards.  The Orioles seem to have found his replacement in former Cubs reliever Wesley Wright, but it's hard to imagine Wright matching Miller's numbers from last season.  Luckily for the O's, their bullpen was good even before Miller put on the orange and black, so the loss may not be as significant as it may seem.  What hurts more than losing Miller is losing him to your rivals in New York.  On a side note, Miller brings the average age of the Yankees' 25-man roster to a jovial 96.

Dan Duque....oh wait 

Key Additions

Travis Snider, OF

The Orioles traded for Travis Snider, dealing a couple of lower level pitching prospects. Snider is coming off a year where he got the most playing time of his career. And ended up producing some solid numbers; 13 Home Runs, 38 RBI and hitting .264/.338/.438/.766 . Now some may look at those number and not be all that impressed. When you factor in doing all this in only 322 AB's it looks a bit more impressive. Also compare those numbers to that of Nick Markakis, 14 Home Runs, 50 RBI and .276/.342/.386/.729, Snider could very well be a solid replacement for Markakis. He has some decent pop and is a solid OBP guy. In terms of his defense, I can't say much as I haven't really seen him play much. He has a .982 career fielding percentage, so there may be some drop off from Markakis's gold glove defense.

Wesley Wright, RP

Added via free agency. Wright is coming off a year where he had a decent 3.17 ERA in 48 innings. He has a chance to make Brian Matusz expendable as the lefty specialist. In his career left handed hitters have hit .238 against him. Right handed hitters have hit .264. Though last year lefties hit .274, so that is not a good sign. But, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .313 overall, and .362 for lefties. This may suggest that the defense behind him wasn't all that great. The Orioles have an excellent defense, so maybe that will help him have a better year.

Nolan Reimold, OF

Back yet again. Signed to a minor league deal. We all know the problem here, can he stay healthy? Nolan has shown that when (granted it's few and far between and usually hasn't lasted long ) healthy he can produce. This is a no risk move for the Orioles. IF he's healthy and hitting he could force his way onto the team. If he's not it won't hurt anything and he will be gone.

Photo credit: memecrunch.com

Everth Cabrera, INF

Singed as a free agent. Cabrera has been an all star in the past. He has speed, having stolen 44 bases in 2012 and 37 in 2013. If nothing else he could provide depth on the major league roster, allowing Hardy and Machado to rest more. Or depth at AAA. He also could allow the Orioles to send Schoop back to AAA to work on his hitting and put Cabrera at second base and possibly lead off.

Scott Coolbaugh, Hitting Coach

Coolbaugh comes over to replace Jim Presley as hitting coach. Coolbaugh was the Rangers hitting coach in 2011 and 2012. The Rangers lead the league in runs scored and were second in total bases in 2012. He has worked with Chris Davis in both the minors and majors when they were both in Texas. There is hope that he can help return Davis to form and that he can help the rest of the line up have a more disciplined approach at the plate.

2015 Season Outlook

Contrary to popular belief, the 2015 season has not yet begun. Though to listen to some fans (and players - I'm talking to you, Chris Davis), you’d think it had already been completed – with the Orioles returning to a once-familiar place in the AL East basement. The Orioles lost some significant players in Cruz, Markakis and Miller and did relatively little to replace them, so some degree of concern is understandable. A fatalistic attitude is not though, as a closer examination of the current roster still leaves plenty of room for optimism.

The Orioles are bringing back a starting pitching staff that ranked 5th in the American League, with five starters posting an ERA under 3.57. A full year of Kevin Gausman should only improve things, but with Ubaldo Jimenez getting a chance to re-enter the rotation this spring, there will be a few question marks. If Jimenez makes the rotation, Gausman, Gonzalez or Norris will be bumped. It should probably be Norris but under no circumstances should the team remove Gausman from the rotation in what is likely to be a big year for him. Then there is the question of whether to send the odd man out to the bullpen or the minors. I don’t think any of the six should be wasted at AAA, meaning the odd man out would be best served as the long man in the bullpen. Dylan Bundy should also make an appearance before season’s end, but his role for this year would likely be in the bullpen.

That bullpen is another area of strength. Many cite the loss of Miller – and he was fantastic after being acquired at the trade deadline – but the Orioles were a first place team before Miller arrived and the bullpen was a big part of that. After Tommy Hunter faltered, Zach Britton seized the closer role and never looked back, using a heavy sinker to dominate the final inning and slam the door on victories. Darren O’Day had a strong season as the set-up man and after a stint on the DL and in AAA, Hunter came back with a vengeance as well. All three are back this season, along with 2014’s pleasant surprise in Brad Brach, and Brian Matusz, who had strong stretches last season but must show more consistency and better control. That leaves two bullpen spots remaining, one of which could go to newly acquired lefty Wesley Wright. The final spot will be for a long man, who should be the odd man out from the rotation.

The Orioles pitching will be more than enough based on what we saw last season – can the offense do their part? The answer, despite some anxiousness, is yes. The Orioles lost two big cogs in the machine in Markakis and Cruz, but let’s dig deeper, shall we? Markakis was a fan favourite and a rock in the field, but at the plate his numbers were pedestrian and will not be a challenge to replace. Losing Cruz will provide a much bigger sting, but one that will not be as difficult to overcome as people think. Their returning players should more than make up for the offense lost by Cruz’s departure.

The team is essentially upgrading from Nick Hundley/Caleb Joseph to Matt Wieters behind the plate, and the offensive improvement cannot be overstated – think going from Rosie O’Donnell to Fred Astaire in a dance off. Manny Machado will be back manning the hot corner, after suffering another season-ending knee injury when he was finally starting to destroy baseballs the way Adam Jones destroys pies. Keeping him healthy will be the key, but now that issues in both knees have been addressed, I expect a breakout year from Manny at the plate. Last but not least, the polarizing Chris Davis. Davis had an atrocious season at the plate last year, capped off with a 25 game suspension for Adderall use. Davis has been approved for a new ADHD medication this season, and with a renewed focus and his health issues under control, Davis should rebound strongly. I expect around a .270 BA, .360 OBP and 35 HRs. If the Orioles get that, they’ll be in very good shape.

If even two of Davis/Wieters/Machado stay healthy all season and put up good numbers, Nelson Cruz will quickly be an afterthought.

I know there is some concern among fans after a very quiet offseason, but the Orioles have been picked to finish last by the “experts” in each of the last three seasons and have finished second, third and first respectively. The last three seasons have brought two playoff berths and 274 wins – second only to the Oakland Athletics in that span. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter have earned the trust of fans, even if the team may not look the most daunting on paper. Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti did wonders with the pitching staff last season and new hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh should help improve the team’s plate discipline.

Plain and simple, the Orioles recent success shows that Showalter and the front office understand a key concept that often gets overlooked – baseball is a TEAM game. Big names and shiny numbers are nice to have, but teams that win have 25 guys that all successfully do their jobs when called upon. The Orioles may have the deepest roster in baseball, extending down to AAA Norfolk, and players who are ready to play the role requested when called. Players are given opportunities to prove themselves and the hot hand is often run with, which allows the team to get the most out of a roster that is so much greater than the sum of its parts.

Barring a big trade, the Red Sox do not appear to have the pitching to make a deep run this season, despite all their big acquisitions. The Yankees and Rays will have their strengths, but will likely battle for 4^th place in a division that may be more balanced than it has ever been. The Blue Jays will pose the biggest threat to the Orioles this season and it should be a good fight. I don’t see the Orioles winning the division by 12 games again – or winning 96 games – but as it stands right now, I don’t see any of the other 4 teams knocking them from their perch.

Expect 90 wins and a second consecutive AL East crown from the Orange Birds this season. And who knows – this may even be the year everything falls just right and fortune smiles on the Orioles, bringing the World Series trophy back to Baltimore for the first time in 32 years.

The question is, would that be enough to finally get this organization the respect it deserves?

 

Photo credit: baltimoresportsreport.com

My 10 Favorite Moments from one hell of a Season

The 2014 Orioles season ended bitterly. Getting swept in the ALCS was not the plan. It sucked. It took awhile to shake off. But you know what, the 2014 season was awesome. The team overcame many injuries to star players and ran away with the division. There were so many great moments from the season. So to feel good about what was a great season I am gonna make a list of my 10 favorite moments from this year ( and making it just 10 wasn't easy,a lot of awesome stuff happened). This list will be in chronological order,so from opening day till the end of the season. So here we go,my ten favorite moments from 2014.

Opening Day.

Nelson Cruz welcome to Baltimore!! Nelly would launch a homer that would help the Os to an 2-1 opening day win over the hated RedSoxs. It was a sign of things to come from the slugger, as Nelly had an all-star season, leading all of baseball with 40 homers. The fun with Cruz started right away and would only keep getting better all year long.

4/8/14 @ Yankees.

The Orioles would end their first series vs the evil Yankees facing their prized pitcher in Masahiro Tanaka in his home debut. Tanaka was off to a great start and it seemed no one could hit him. In steps Johnathan Schoop. Launching a 3 run homer to give the Os the lead in the second inning. It was a moment that had me yelling and pumping my fist (Schoop would take him deep again latter in the year as well,another awesome moment that didn't make my list) , Tanaka would get a no decision,but the Os proved they could beat him.

5/1/14 vs Pitt

Thanks to tones of rain all week this day would be a double header. The Os would take game one. Game two was supposed to be a big moment for one reason,it was the first game of the year for Manny Machado. While that was great to see the game wouldn't be all about Manny. Chris Tillman threw what seemed like a million pitches in the first inning. The Pirates took a first inning 2-0 lead. The Orioles would battle back and tie the game. The game went into extras. Matt Wieters would lead off the tenth inning,and he would do it with a bang. Wieters hit a ball out to right field for the walk off homer,ending a long long day of baseball and sending me and all of birdland off to sleep vary happy.

6/23/14 vs White Soxs

This went from one of the most frustrating games to one of the most awesome wins of the season. The Orioles were facing the Soxs left handed ace in Chris Sale. With Chris Davis struggling, he would not be in the starting lineup. The Orioles had several scoring chances against Sale and failed over and over. All the while the Soxs managed to take a 4-2 lead. Caleb Joseph would hit a homer in the 8^th to make it a one run game. In the 9^th the Os would get two runners on. And then in stepped Chris Davis to pinch hit. Since he had been struggling who knew what to expect. When Davis made contact I was screaming at my TV,yelling for the ball to get out,while jumping up and down. When the ball left the park I went nuts. I don't think I yelled so much at any other moment of the season.

8/8/14 vs Cards

The Orioles would wear throwback uniforms this night. They would crush six homers in a 12-2 win. But the real moment came after the game. This night was the 60^th year celebration. And it was Omazing. All the former players that were there. The amazing video package. I won't even try to lie about it, I cried,a lot. It was just one of those special nights, a great win and and even better show after.

Gif credit: baltimorsportsreport.com

8/18/14 @ White Soxs

The Os were up 3-0 and Bud Norris seemed to be in complete control. Then came the 7^th inning. The Soxs got two runs. And had another runner on. Conor Gillaspie stepped to the plate. He launched a ball into right field. I had my head down thinking crud there goes the lead. Then Nick Markakis leaped in the air, crashed into the wall. And yes!! he had caught the ball to take away a go ahead homer and end the inning. The Os would then score 5 in the 8^th and win easy. Nick's catch saved the day. It was one of the best catches I have ever seen. If he doesn't win the gold glove this year, just stop giving them out.

8/25/14 vs Rays

Orioles win big 9-1. The reason I will remember this game always is for Adam Jones. Evan Longoria hit a ball to center field. And Adam Jones made a great catch to rob a homer. And then if that wasn't enough, he threw a bullet into second base to nail the runner trying to tag from first. Adam turning a homer into a double play was just so much fun. And seeing how pumped AJ was made it even better.

9/16/14 vs Jays

This is a moment we will all remember. It had only been 17 years since the last time we could say the Orioles were AL East champs. But this night it would happen. What to pick from this game? Ubaldo Jimenez after a year full of inconsistency picking up the win by retiring the final 10 batters he faced ? The Steve Pearce homer to give the Os the lead in the first? Nick Markakis face after the game ? The post game celebration with the fans on the field? All of the above. The post game stuff will never be deleted from this guys drv. Nick's face makes me smile every time. Adam Jones pieing fans was so cool. Tears flowed. Every part of that game I will cherish forever.

10/3/14 vs Tigers ALDS

Chen had ten horrible pitches. But the Orioles kept fighting and waiting for the chance to get another crack at the horrible Tigers bullpen. Down 6-3 in the 8^th here came the Tigers pen. Loading the bases and having giving up one run already. Leading to Delmon Young pinch hitting. First pitch, left field corner. One run scores, two runs score, JJ Hardy heading home, and sliding in just safe!! I have watched it too many times to count. Seeing Nelson Cruz rolling on the ground as JJ scored gets me every time. Camden Yards went insane. It was a moment I don't think any of us will ever forget.

10/5/14 @ Tigers ALDS

I wanted a sweep. I didn't want to let the Tigers back in this series. Cruz hits a homer to give the Os a 2-0 lead. We move to the 9^th. Zach Britton who was lights out in the regular season comes in to nail the series down. He promptly gives up back to back doubles to make it a one run game. I was beyond nervous. I was in fact ready to puke. Buck walks out to the mound, the Os walk Nick Castellanos intentionally, putting the go ahead run on. Then Zach with his tremendous ability to get ground balls got one, hit to Ryan Flaherty, 5-4-3. Double Play!! Os advance. And we could all breath again.

It was a great year. It didn't end how we wanted. But there were these ten moments, with countless others, that made this one hell of a fun year. I can't wait to see what 2015 brings.

Matt Baggette @ mlb930

Can I buy a vowel...and a win?

In light of Chris Davis's interview with the Baltimore Sun a couple weeks ago that had social media ablaze, I finally decided to take a look at an age old debate – does payroll have a direct relation to wins? In his interview, Davis was discussing his future and suggested he needed to see more of a commitment from the Orioles to their future before he would consider an extension. He said he did not want to sign on long-term with a losing team and cited teams like Boston, New York and Toronto as those who spend to win.

Looking to rebound from a forgettable
season, Chris Davis polarized Orioles
fans with his recent interview.

The only problem with Davis’s claim is that he selected three teams that don’t win; at least not recently or with any kind of consistency. In the past three seasons, the Baltimore Orioles have two playoff appearances. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays have two playoff appearances in that span as well – COMBINED.

Granted, the Red Sox won a World Series in that time, but it was a bit soured by the fact that they sandwiched it between two last place finishes. Imagine having a sandwich with the most succulent and tasty roast beef you’ve ever had in your life, but instead of bread, you get two moldy sponges that were used to scrub a public toilet. I’ll let that image marinate in your mind for a minute…

Now let’s move on.

I was surprised by Davis’s comments for two reasons:

1. He’s coming off an abysmal offensive year – he hit just .196 – in which he also managed to get himself suspended. Someone in his position should be the last one to speak up about the quality of the team or its desire to win.
2. Davis has been a part of an Orioles team that is second only to the Oakland Athletics in wins in the American League since the start of 2012. And he doesn’t see a team that’s committed to winning?

But there’s a deeper issue here, one evidenced by the shocking amount of fans who have sided with Davis: the obsession with a team’s payroll and the belief that it is directly related to wins, even when recent evidence seems to show the contrary (see: Pittsburgh, KC, Tampa Bay, etc.). Having a ton of money to spend definitely helps, but it can be overcome through good scouting, smart drafts, and smart spending and personnel decisions.

Take the Cardinals as an example. They decided Albert Pujols, a hometown hero, was too rich for their blood and let him go to Anaheim. Fans weren’t happy, but they trusted the front office. All the Cardinals have done is make the playoffs each year since, including a World Series appearance. Albert has gone to the playoffs just once in three seasons with the mega-spending Angels, and they were knocked off by an upstart wildcard team in Kansas City in the first round. So why has Nick Markakis become a tipping point for Orioles players and fans, especially when the team has proven their method produces results over the past three years?

Rather than bash Chris Davis (even though I STRONGLY disagreed with his comments), I want to look at the deeper issue of payroll vs. success. I’m going to look at playoff teams from the last 10 seasons and where they ranked in terms of payroll, and then see if any conclusions can be drawn from that.

Below are the playoff teams for each season, with their MLB payroll rank in parentheses. Bold = World Series winner.

2014: Dodgers (1), Tigers (5), Angels (6), Giants (7), Nationals (9), Cardinals (13), Orioles (15), Royals (19), Athletics (25), Pirates (27)

2013: Dodgers (2), Red Sox (4), Tigers (5), Cardinals (10), Reds (13), Braves (16), Pirates (20), Indians (21), Athletics (27), Rays (28)

2012: Yankees (1), Tigers (5), Rangers (6), Giants (8), Cardinals (9), Braves (16), Reds (17), Orioles (19), Nationals (20), Athletics (29),

2011: Yankees (1), Phillies (2), Tigers (10), Cardinals (11), Rangers (13), Brewers (17), Diamondbacks (25), Rays (29)

2010: Yankees (1), Phillies (4), Giants (10), Twins (11), Braves (15), Reds (19), Rays (21), Rangers (27)

2009: Yankees (1), Red Sox (4), Angels (6), Phillies (7), Dodgers (9), Cardinals (13), Rockies (18), Twins (24)

2008: Red Sox (4), White Sox (5), Angels (6), Dodgers (7), Cubs (8), Phillies (12), Brewers (15), Rays (29)

2007: Yankees (1), Red Sox (2), Angels (4), Cubs (8), Phillies (13), Indians (23), Rockies (25), Diamondbacks (26)

2006: Yankees (1), Mets (5), Dodgers (6), Cardinals (11), Tigers (14), Padres (17), Twins (19), Athletics (21)

2005: Yankees (1), Red Sox (2), Angels (5), Cardinals (6), Braves (10), Astros (12), White Sox (13), Padres (17)

The 2009 New York Yankees are the only team in the last 10
years to win the World Series with the league's top payroll (and
the only playoff team with the highest payroll in a given year
to win it).                                                                                        

So what are some trends we can draw from this?

First of all, let’s look at the World Series winners. The worst payroll ranking by a World Series champion in the last 10 years was the 2005 White Sox at 13^th, followed by the 2006 and 2001 Cardinals, both 11^th. So perhaps a reasonable argument can be made that in order to win the World Series, you need to spend money, but at the same time, only 3 of 30 Top 5 payroll teams won a WS in the last 10 years, so clearly spending alone does not do the trick.

Facts of note from last 10 seasons:

• Since 2005, 23 of 50 Top 5 payroll teams made the playoffs – that’s less than half. 
• 2009 Yankees were the only team to win the WS with the highest payroll of the playoff teams in a given season
• 25^th and 29^th ranked teams have each made the playoffs three times. #2 ranked teams have only made the playoffs 4 times.
• The #3 ranked team in payroll has not made the playoffs at all in the last 10 seasons.
• Ranks 1-10 produced 42 of 86 playoff teams. Ranks 11-20 have produced 28 of 86. Ranks 21-30 have produced 16 of 86.

Looking at all these facts, what conclusions can be drawn?

Well, it’s obvious you don’t have to spend a ton of money to win, but it’s very difficult if you don’t. Nearly half of the playoff teams in the last 10 years were ranked 10^th or better in payroll, so clearly spending money improves your chances of winning.

However, looking at the amount of teams who are ranked 20^th or worse in payroll and still made the playoffs, and looking at all the teams in the Top 10 who missed the playoffs or failed to advance past the first round, it’s clear that good scouting and drafts and a smart front office can make up for a lack of payroll, and conversely, simply throwing a ton of money at top players does not guarantee success.

The majority of WS teams in the last 10 years were ranked 7-13 in payroll. This suggests that balance is required; that teams do need to spend in the upper half of the league in order to be able to bring home a championship, but that money must also be well spent. A huge checkbook is no substitute for sound personnel decisions and spending money in the right places.

The Orioles are currently ranked 12^th in payroll for 2015. 6 of the 11 teams ahead of them failed to make the playoffs last season, including 3 of the teams Chris Davis cited as being those who spend to win: Yankees, Red Sox, Jays.

While I don’t fault Davis for his assertion that teams need to spend to win, his assertion that the Orioles don’t spend, while other teams in the division do, holds no water in this case because the Orioles are in the top half of the league in spending and are, by far, the most successful team in the AL East in the last three seasons.

What irks me most is Davis’s comment that he doesn’t want to sign long-term to play for a loser every year, implying that’s the type of team the Orioles are because they don’t spend like their division mates. Coming from a guy who has been a member of a team that is second only to the Athletics in wins the last three seasons, I would expect Davis to have a little more confidence in his team. Especially when Dan and Buck’s system produced 96 wins last year despite losing Matt Wieters and Manny Machado for most of the season, and a horrid year (including a suspension) from Davis himself.

As much as I hate to make this comparison, Dan Duquette is, in some ways, the Bill Belichick of MLB. He finds ways to do more with less, and is more concerned with bringing in players who fit his system and ideology than big-name star power. (And hey – Belichick just won a title this year for the first time since 2004 – which, coincidentally, is the last time a Dan Duquette-constructed team won the World Series.)

Do I wish the Orioles would have done more this offseason? Yes. Do I think they’re doomed this season because they didn’t? Not a chance.

Why? 2012. 2013. 2014. That’s why. 274 wins, 2 playoff berths and a division crown. There are less than 5 teams who can claim a better stretch during that span. I may not agree with every decision this organization makes, but people - fans AND players - need to move beyond 1998-2011. Those years are gone. The team is in different hands now – smarter hands. The farm system is rich, depth has increased and sound personnel decisions are being made.

I understand fans being a little antsy, but a player who’s been through it all the last 3 years? I’m really disappointed in Chris Davis.

And for all you fans out there who still insist that spending money guarantees wins and championships – I have some beachfront property in Wyoming I’d like to sell you.

-- Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

Tampa Bay Rays Preview 2015

Over the next few days, we will be previewing the upcoming season for the five teams of the American League East, ending with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Up next, the Rays of Tampa Bay.

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays renounced their affiliation with Satan and became the Tampa Bay* Rays and surprised every single person with their rise from perpetual crappiness to the AL East title and a World Series appearance. They would go on to earn winning records in the next five seasons, making three more playoff appearances despite sporting a low payroll and playing in the back of a U-Haul. This sustained success led to Tampa becoming the Orioles overachieving younger brother, constantly praised by Ma and Pa Baseball Expert every holiday dinner. “Why don’t you hire one of those Harvard economists for your front office? Your brother Ray did” “Your brother Ray won 96 games last year on a budget! When are you going to stop working at that pizza place?” and so forth.

That period of success came to a halt in 2014. The 2014 Rays finished dead last in the American League in runs scored, and traded their ace to the Tigers. The gave way to a very interesting and busy offseason for the Rays. Wil Myers, once a premium prospect, was suddenly traded to San Diego along with Ryan Hanigan. The versatile Ben Zobrist and irritable Yunel Escobar were traded to Oakland for a 73-year-old barbecue chef. Jeremy Hellickson was traded to Arizona; Sean Rodriguez was traded to the Pirates; Matt Joyce was traded to the Angels. Perhaps the biggest impact was GM Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon leaving for the bluer pastures of Los Angeles and Chicago, respectively.

But while this team looks to be, on paper, weaker than its 2014 model, it seems the Rays are still trying to win using the same formula that gave them success since 2008: great pitching, solid defense, and a versatile lineup.

Rotation

Alex Cobb

Chris Archer

Drew Smyly

Jake Odorizzi

Alex Colome

Matt Moore (he hurt)

Even without David Price, the Rays rotation is still young and talented. Cobb, Archer, and Smyly all posted very impressive ERAs in 2014, and are also delicious, deadly, and pleasant, in that order. Odorizzi and Colome are each serviceable starters that Tampa is hoping can fill in the gap until the big arm of Matt Moore can return from injury. The health and success of these pitchers are what is going to make or break Tampa in 2015.

Bullpen

Closer Jake McGee anchors what was a rather mediocre Rays bullpen in 2014. He won the job from the hilariously ineffective Grant Balfour. You may remember Balfour as the pitcher that criticized the Orioles for failing his physical for fear that he may become injured or start to struggle in 2014. Balfour vowed to make the O’s look foolish on the deal, then promptly started to struggle. The choice of McGee or Balfour as closer in 2015 seems simple, but we all know that salary and experience have as much to do with selecting a closer as actual pitching ability. The rest of the bullpen is meh. Jeff Beliveau and Brad Box of Burgers were both solid out of the pen last season, and the team is also hoping that recently acquired Ernesto Frieri finds his 2012 form again.

Projected Lineup

1. 

   Even Ray Charles would be able to see this Rays team will
   struggle to put runs on the board this season.                           

   Ray Romano, CF
2. Ray Lewis, SS
3. Ray Liotta, 2B
4. Ray Allen, RF
5. Ray Rice, DH
6. Ray Kroc, C
7. Ray J. Johnson, Jr. 1B
8. Ray Bradbury, LF
9. Ray Charles, 3B

That’s not true I just made that up.

1. Desmond Jennings, CF
2. John Jaso, DH
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. James Loney, 1B
5. Steven Souza, LF
6. Kevin Kiermaier, RF
7. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
8. Rene Rivera, C
9. Nick Franklin, SS

When looking at the Rays projected lineup, the most obvious deficiency is the lack of power. Evan Longoria was the only Ray that surpassed 20 home runs last year; no other Ray was even close. And despite leading the team in homers, Longoria is coming off his worst season. His average dipped to .253 and his slugging percentage was Error--Not Found (.404). James Loney has been a nice pickup for the Rays, but he is not a bat that strikes fear in the middle of the order. Desmond Jennings does a pretty good B.J. Upton/Carl Crawford impression, but he’s not an ideal option for a leadoff man. The Rays will rely heavily on sophomore Kevin Kiermaier and rookie Steven Souza. Acquired in the 3-team trade that sent Myers to San Diego, Souza absolutely demolished AAA pitching last season, hitting .350 and OPSing 1.022 with 18 HR in 407 plate appearances. Souza has just 26 plate appearances in MLB, though, and has yet to prove anything of significance at the highest level.

Evan Longoria is going to have to shoulder a heavy offensive  
load if the Rays have any hope of competing in 2015.

For Tampa to be successful in 2015, it is going to have to win a lot of close, low-scoring games. The offense isn’t likely to put up many runs and while the rotation may be up to the task, it remains to be seen whether the bullpen can hold those 1-0 and 2-1 leads. Another question that must be answered is whether new general manager Matthew Silverman and new manager Kevin Cash can manipulate the roster with as much precision as Friedman and Maddon did. Our computer simulations have them rated at just a 1.7% chance to win the division and an 8.8% chance to make the playoffs. In the majority of simulations, Tampa finishes either fourth or fifth.

*Why citizens of the city of Tampa, FL insist on calling all of their sports team “Tampa Bay” will always be a mystery to me. The teams don’t play in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Hell, the Rays don’t even play in Tampa. It makes as little sense as calling the Giants the “San Francisco Bay Giants”. We as Americans should not stand for this.

-- Nathan Mullenax