ORIOLES PREVIEW

Earlier in the offseason, we previewed the upcoming season for the other four teams of the American League East. Now, we wrap things up with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles

2014 Record 96-66

1st in AL East (more like AL LEAST. boom.)

2014 Season Review:

The 2014 season began with a lot of uncertainty. Coming off a magical 2012 season and a solid but unspectacular 2013 season, the thought of fans and baseball analysts alike was that the Orioles needed to do something big to get back to the postseason in 2014. Chris Davis was coming off a monster year and was unlikely to repeat his MVP-caliber numbers. Manny Machado was completely unaware that first base at Tropicana Field was rigged with explosives and was likely to miss Opening Day. The rotation in '13 was lackluster and constantly revolving (remember Freddy Garcia and Jair Jurrjens?), and Jim Johnson struggled at closer despite 50 saves.

So the O's entered 2014 having made two major acquisitions late in the offseason: Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. To most, it did not project to be enough, as the O's were selected by most to fall back into the lower depths of the AL East once again despite a solid core of players.

2014 Timeline

Baltimore spent much of the first half of 2014 merely staying afloat. The team finished April at 12-12, finished May at 27-27, and finished June at 43-39. The team was hitting well in spite of a strange lack of power in April, but the pitching wasn't getting it done. The rotation's ERAs in April, May, and June were 4.74, 4.29, and 3.47 respectively. But the month of July started with a four game sweep of Texas and ended with a successful West Coast road trip, and that momentum stayed with the team throughout the rest of the season. The team finished the final three months of the year at 53-27, coasting to their first AL East division crown since 1997. In the postseason, the O's handled the Tigers to the tune of a three-game sweep, mashing hits off the Detroit bullpen like overly competitive dads at a father-son game. Unfortunately, momentum and luck were not on their side as they met the seemingly unbeatable Kansas City Royals in the ALCS and were themselves swept away.

Disappointments--Despite 96 wins, there were plenty of disappointments in 2014:

• Chris Davis--Crush turned to Mush in 2014, posting a line that makes Adam Dunn say "Yeah, that's about right." Davis followed up his 1.004 OPS season with a mere .704 OPS in 2014. His homers dropped from 53 to 26 and his average plummeted to .196. Davis also missed time with injury and an Adderall suspension that disgraced him in many fans' eyes and barred him from postseason play. For some reason, Davis just didn't appear to have any confidence at the plate in 2014, often striking out on fastballs in the zone. The Orioles are counting on at least some improvement in 2015. Scott Boras is counting on it, too.
• Ubaldo Jimenez--After an impressive second half with the Indians in 2013, Ubaldo was one of a group of B-list starting pitchers on the free agent market. This list ranged from low-risk, low-reward types like Bronson Arroyo and A.J. Burnett, to more volatile pitchers like Ervin Santana and Jimenez. When Ubaldo is commanding his pitches, he's unhittable. When he's not, he's unbearable. For most of 2014 he was the latter, posting a career-high 5.5 BB/9. This led to unbridled outrage amongst O's fans for wasting $50 million on Ubaldo while simultaneously complaining that the team never spends any money. 
• Tommy Hunter--A mild disappointment, Hunter was effective once he was moved back to the setup role. However, as a closer, it's remarkable that he didn't do even more damage than he did. Just about every time he stepped on the mound in the 9th, Hunter allowed at least one baserunner. While he gets credit for handling those tough situations with a certain amused calmness, he was directly responsible for every Orioles fan over 40 referencing Don Stanhouse on EVERY SINGLE APPEARANCE. That got old real fast. 
• Injured stars--Matt Wieters FINALLY seemed to have found the bat that everyone was anticipating when he was drafted by the Orioles. Then, he went and had to have Tommy John surgery and missed most of the season. Why do you hate us so, O Lord? I blame all those innings closing at Georgia Tech. Ever heard of pitch counts, George A. Techmanager?! Manny Machado also appeared to have already started turning some of those doubles into home runs in 2014, hitting 12 in 327 at-bats compared to 14 in 667 at-bats in 2013. Then, Machado's right knee became envious of all the special treatment his left knee got the year before, and promptly disintegrated. Everyone was grumpers that day. 

Pleasant Surprises--A lot of unexpected heroes emerged in 2014. Do you remember them? You should. I mean, it was like four months ago, man.

• Steve Pearce--The Orioles released Steve Pearce on April 27 to make room for, someone, I don't know (you expect me to remember? That was like four months ago, man.). Then a day later Chris Davis got hurt, which prompted Dan Duquette to text Steve Pearce the following: "Jk about ur release. Are we ok? I want u back." Pearce returned to action and absolutely mashed at the plate, posting a .930 OPS and splitting time between first base, and left field. 
• Zach Britton--Once part of the three-headed monster of disappointment along with Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz, Britton was sent to the bullpen in 2014 and found about 4 mph to add to his sinker next to an old rosin bag and Tommy Hunter's copy of BODacious magazine. This turned him from a fringe starter into an extremely effective reliever. Starting off as a long man in 2014, Britton was instrumental in stepping in for struggling starters in April and early May, posting a 0.84 ERA in 21.1 IP before inheriting the closer role. He continued to thrive as a closer due to an astronomical ground ball rate, going so far as to actually "blow" one save in Milwaukee because the opposing batter hit the ball too softly. 
• Caleb Joseph--Throughout his minor league career, the word on the street about Joseph is that he could hit well, particularly against lefties, but that his defensive game was poor. This turned out to be completely wrong in every aspect. Nice job, scouts. Joseph hit like a backup catcher, but his work behind the plate was extraordinary. With Joseph behind the plate, the team ERA was 3.00 and opposing batters OPSed just .667. Joseph also threw out 23 of 57 baserunners, a remarkable 40% rate. 
• Nelson Cruz--Of course we cannot forget about Mr. Cruz. After languishing in the offseason from the stigma of "Old PED User" Cruz finally signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the O's in February. This was substantially lower than he was seeking in the market, but offered him an opportunity to try again following the 2014 season. Cruz absolutely thrived in Camden Yards, blasting 40 home runs and driving in 108 to lead the team in both categories. For the early part of the season, Cruz was the only consistent bat in the lineup, often providing the key hits necessary to keep the team alive in the race through June. 

AL EAST CHAMPS!!! (photo credit: sportige.com )

Key Losses

Nelson Cruz, DH/LF

The steal of the 2014 offseason, Nelson Cruz, found himself signing a 4 year, $57 million contract with the Seattle Mariners.  This is a much prettier deal in Nelson's eyes as opposed to the one-year, $8 million contract that he signed in Baltimore in 2014.  The Orioles were in the running for Cruz to return, but he opted for the better offer. It will be interesting to see how he well he produces moving forward given he will be 35 in July and is moving to pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.  For the Orioles, the question will be how to replace 40 home runs and 104 RBI in their 2015 lineup.  It looks as if they will be counting on Chris Davis to rebound as well as having Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, and JJ Hardy put up some power numbers to go along with Adam Jones' yearly 30 homers.

Nick Markakis, RF

Longtime fan favorite Nick Markakis has moved on to the land of the peaches, signing a 4-year, $44 million contract with the Atlanta Braves.  Markakis had a solid season leading off for the Orioles and was able to compete in his first career playoffs in 2014.  The Orioles originally had a 4-year offer on the table, but that was later reduced to 3 years due to concerns over his neck.  Markakis, who had neck surgery earlier this offseason, looks ready to go for the Braves.  The Orioles have not said who will take Markakis' leadoff role or who will fill the gap in RF, but names like Alejandro De Aza, David Lough, Travis Snider, Everth Cabrera, and Steve Pearce have come up in replacing those positions.  And with recent developments, it sounds like Markakis has some hard feelings towards the contract negotiations with the O's, but it really turns out to be a non-story.  

Andrew Miller, RP

Left handed reliever Andrew Miller, a trade deadline acquisition by the O's, has put on the pinstripes. Miller accepted a 4-year, $36 million from the New York Yankees. It is possible that he could take over the closing job there after David Robertson's departure, but he has some competition there with New York's 2014 breakout reliever, Dellin Betances.   Miller pitched 20 innings for the O's in the regular season and seven in the playoffs and was lights out in both regards.  The Orioles seem to have found his replacement in former Cubs reliever Wesley Wright, but it's hard to imagine Wright matching Miller's numbers from last season.  Luckily for the O's, their bullpen was good even before Miller put on the orange and black, so the loss may not be as significant as it may seem.  What hurts more than losing Miller is losing him to your rivals in New York.  On a side note, Miller brings the average age of the Yankees' 25-man roster to a jovial 96.

Dan Duque....oh wait 

Key Additions

Travis Snider, OF

The Orioles traded for Travis Snider, dealing a couple of lower level pitching prospects. Snider is coming off a year where he got the most playing time of his career. And ended up producing some solid numbers; 13 Home Runs, 38 RBI and hitting .264/.338/.438/.766 . Now some may look at those number and not be all that impressed. When you factor in doing all this in only 322 AB's it looks a bit more impressive. Also compare those numbers to that of Nick Markakis, 14 Home Runs, 50 RBI and .276/.342/.386/.729, Snider could very well be a solid replacement for Markakis. He has some decent pop and is a solid OBP guy. In terms of his defense, I can't say much as I haven't really seen him play much. He has a .982 career fielding percentage, so there may be some drop off from Markakis's gold glove defense.

Wesley Wright, RP

Added via free agency. Wright is coming off a year where he had a decent 3.17 ERA in 48 innings. He has a chance to make Brian Matusz expendable as the lefty specialist. In his career left handed hitters have hit .238 against him. Right handed hitters have hit .264. Though last year lefties hit .274, so that is not a good sign. But, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .313 overall, and .362 for lefties. This may suggest that the defense behind him wasn't all that great. The Orioles have an excellent defense, so maybe that will help him have a better year.

Nolan Reimold, OF

Back yet again. Signed to a minor league deal. We all know the problem here, can he stay healthy? Nolan has shown that when (granted it's few and far between and usually hasn't lasted long ) healthy he can produce. This is a no risk move for the Orioles. IF he's healthy and hitting he could force his way onto the team. If he's not it won't hurt anything and he will be gone.

Photo credit: memecrunch.com

Everth Cabrera, INF

Singed as a free agent. Cabrera has been an all star in the past. He has speed, having stolen 44 bases in 2012 and 37 in 2013. If nothing else he could provide depth on the major league roster, allowing Hardy and Machado to rest more. Or depth at AAA. He also could allow the Orioles to send Schoop back to AAA to work on his hitting and put Cabrera at second base and possibly lead off.

Scott Coolbaugh, Hitting Coach

Coolbaugh comes over to replace Jim Presley as hitting coach. Coolbaugh was the Rangers hitting coach in 2011 and 2012. The Rangers lead the league in runs scored and were second in total bases in 2012. He has worked with Chris Davis in both the minors and majors when they were both in Texas. There is hope that he can help return Davis to form and that he can help the rest of the line up have a more disciplined approach at the plate.

2015 Season Outlook

Contrary to popular belief, the 2015 season has not yet begun. Though to listen to some fans (and players - I'm talking to you, Chris Davis), you’d think it had already been completed – with the Orioles returning to a once-familiar place in the AL East basement. The Orioles lost some significant players in Cruz, Markakis and Miller and did relatively little to replace them, so some degree of concern is understandable. A fatalistic attitude is not though, as a closer examination of the current roster still leaves plenty of room for optimism.

The Orioles are bringing back a starting pitching staff that ranked 5th in the American League, with five starters posting an ERA under 3.57. A full year of Kevin Gausman should only improve things, but with Ubaldo Jimenez getting a chance to re-enter the rotation this spring, there will be a few question marks. If Jimenez makes the rotation, Gausman, Gonzalez or Norris will be bumped. It should probably be Norris but under no circumstances should the team remove Gausman from the rotation in what is likely to be a big year for him. Then there is the question of whether to send the odd man out to the bullpen or the minors. I don’t think any of the six should be wasted at AAA, meaning the odd man out would be best served as the long man in the bullpen. Dylan Bundy should also make an appearance before season’s end, but his role for this year would likely be in the bullpen.

That bullpen is another area of strength. Many cite the loss of Miller – and he was fantastic after being acquired at the trade deadline – but the Orioles were a first place team before Miller arrived and the bullpen was a big part of that. After Tommy Hunter faltered, Zach Britton seized the closer role and never looked back, using a heavy sinker to dominate the final inning and slam the door on victories. Darren O’Day had a strong season as the set-up man and after a stint on the DL and in AAA, Hunter came back with a vengeance as well. All three are back this season, along with 2014’s pleasant surprise in Brad Brach, and Brian Matusz, who had strong stretches last season but must show more consistency and better control. That leaves two bullpen spots remaining, one of which could go to newly acquired lefty Wesley Wright. The final spot will be for a long man, who should be the odd man out from the rotation.

The Orioles pitching will be more than enough based on what we saw last season – can the offense do their part? The answer, despite some anxiousness, is yes. The Orioles lost two big cogs in the machine in Markakis and Cruz, but let’s dig deeper, shall we? Markakis was a fan favourite and a rock in the field, but at the plate his numbers were pedestrian and will not be a challenge to replace. Losing Cruz will provide a much bigger sting, but one that will not be as difficult to overcome as people think. Their returning players should more than make up for the offense lost by Cruz’s departure.

The team is essentially upgrading from Nick Hundley/Caleb Joseph to Matt Wieters behind the plate, and the offensive improvement cannot be overstated – think going from Rosie O’Donnell to Fred Astaire in a dance off. Manny Machado will be back manning the hot corner, after suffering another season-ending knee injury when he was finally starting to destroy baseballs the way Adam Jones destroys pies. Keeping him healthy will be the key, but now that issues in both knees have been addressed, I expect a breakout year from Manny at the plate. Last but not least, the polarizing Chris Davis. Davis had an atrocious season at the plate last year, capped off with a 25 game suspension for Adderall use. Davis has been approved for a new ADHD medication this season, and with a renewed focus and his health issues under control, Davis should rebound strongly. I expect around a .270 BA, .360 OBP and 35 HRs. If the Orioles get that, they’ll be in very good shape.

If even two of Davis/Wieters/Machado stay healthy all season and put up good numbers, Nelson Cruz will quickly be an afterthought.

I know there is some concern among fans after a very quiet offseason, but the Orioles have been picked to finish last by the “experts” in each of the last three seasons and have finished second, third and first respectively. The last three seasons have brought two playoff berths and 274 wins – second only to the Oakland Athletics in that span. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter have earned the trust of fans, even if the team may not look the most daunting on paper. Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti did wonders with the pitching staff last season and new hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh should help improve the team’s plate discipline.

Plain and simple, the Orioles recent success shows that Showalter and the front office understand a key concept that often gets overlooked – baseball is a TEAM game. Big names and shiny numbers are nice to have, but teams that win have 25 guys that all successfully do their jobs when called upon. The Orioles may have the deepest roster in baseball, extending down to AAA Norfolk, and players who are ready to play the role requested when called. Players are given opportunities to prove themselves and the hot hand is often run with, which allows the team to get the most out of a roster that is so much greater than the sum of its parts.

Barring a big trade, the Red Sox do not appear to have the pitching to make a deep run this season, despite all their big acquisitions. The Yankees and Rays will have their strengths, but will likely battle for 4^th place in a division that may be more balanced than it has ever been. The Blue Jays will pose the biggest threat to the Orioles this season and it should be a good fight. I don’t see the Orioles winning the division by 12 games again – or winning 96 games – but as it stands right now, I don’t see any of the other 4 teams knocking them from their perch.

Expect 90 wins and a second consecutive AL East crown from the Orange Birds this season. And who knows – this may even be the year everything falls just right and fortune smiles on the Orioles, bringing the World Series trophy back to Baltimore for the first time in 32 years.

The question is, would that be enough to finally get this organization the respect it deserves?

 

Photo credit: baltimoresportsreport.com