The Pen is Mightier

 

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen was a major factor in their playoff run in 2012. The team went an amazing 29-9 in one run games and 16-2 in extra innings, which was helped in large part by their bullpen. The Orioles bullpen compiled an ERA of 3.00, good for 5^th in the league. But the pen pitched the 4^th most innings of any team in the league with 545.1. The effects of this, coupled with a less then stellar starting pitching staff in 2013 ( 27^th in ERA at 4.57 and 22^nd in innings pitched at 939), saw the Orioles bullpen fall to 15^th in ERA (3.52). The Orioles record in both one run games and extras saw a sharp decline (20-31 in one run games, 8-7 in extras).

The bullpen was overused in 2013 and the effects showed. Even though the bullpen pitched fewer innings (514, 11^th most), they still struggled. Jim Johnson blew 9 saves and was used far too often. The team went into the 2014 offseason looking to upgrade both the starting pitching and bullpen. The hope with upgrading the rotation being that a better starting staff would help rest the bullpen and make it more effective.

The first question was what to do about Jim Johnson. Coming off back-to-back 50 save seasons he was due a big raise. After a difficult season that resulted in his blowing 9 saves, the Orioles made the decision they couldn't afford 10 million dollars for a closer. So Johnson was traded to Oakland, a move that at the time had many Orioles fans angry - though strangely enough, these same fans wanted to lynch him during the season when he was costing the team games. Orioles General Manager Dan Duquette said he planned to use the money that would have gone to Johnson elsewhere to improve the team.

Shortly after, the Orioles had a deal in place for Grant Balfour. It seemed the Orioles had found their closer, one coming off a strong season with a better save percentage then that of Johnson. The deal eventually fell apart over Balfour's physical, and once again the Orioles appeared to have no closer. The plan was then to try out Tommy Hunter in the closer role.

The Orioles signed free agent Ryan Webb to bolster the bullpen, hoping he would provide help at the back end. Now in AAA, he was having a decent, if not spectacular season with an ERA of 3.80 in 42 games. After addressing the bullpen, the Orioles turned their attention the the rotation, landing Ubaldo Jimenez, who has struggled to the point of being moved himself into the bullpen.

Hunter struggled to have easy, “clean” innings as the closer. After a blown save vs Detroit and a trip to the DL, the Orioles turned to failed starter Zach Britton. Britton's velocity was up coming out of the bullpen and he had been pitching lights out with his ability to sink the ball. The Orioles found their closer after much angst over trading Johnson, the failed physical of Balfour and the struggles of Tommy Hunter.

And let me just say, looking back, does it not feel great having let go of Johnson and missed out on Balfour? Both have had horrible seasons and lost their jobs, with Johnson even being released by the Athletics.

7.15 ERA,YIKES!!

His 5.54 ERA isn't much better than JJ's
(Photo Credit: nbcsports.com)

The Orioles bullpen is currently 8^th in ERA (3.08) and 8^th in innings pitched (418.1) so far this season. Helping the Orioles to a 25-19 record in one run games and 12-5 in extra innings. Since Britton took over as closer and once the starting pitching started to take off in June, the bullpen has been nearly lights out and is again a giant weapon for the team. Brad Brach has been a pleasant surprise. Darren O'day is having one of the best seasons for a reliever ever, with an ERA of 0.92 in 56 games - he's given up just 6 runs all year. 6!! That's like one a month. To top it off, the Orioles added Andrew Miller at the trade deadline. Miller has an 0.96 ERA in his 10 games as an Oriole. And has the ability to get out both right and left handed hitters. The back end of the the bullpen has turned each night into a six inning game, with the ability to hand the ball over to O'Day, Miller or Hunter and then to Britton.

The Orioles used their bullpen a great deal on the way to the playoffs in 2012. Here in 2014 this Orioles pen may be even better than the one they had in 2012. It doesn't hurt that the Orioles starting pitching is also better than it was in 2012. Come playoff time the Orioles will have one of, if not the best group of pitchers to hand the ball too late in games. If the starters can give them six quality innings the Orioles should have a chance to do some damage in the playoffs with this lethal bullpen.

-Matt Baggette @mlb930

O those O's Fans

On Thursday, Adam Jones was invited to a Q&A session with fans before the upcoming game against the Tampa Bay Rays.  Normally, these get togethers end with no real takeaways other than "That was pretty neat."

But this was a Q&A with Adam Jones, who is known for causing a stir with his words, and this was a Q&A with Orioles fans, who have proven to be, time and time again, irrational, over-reactionary, and take things way to seriously (God forbid you mention Ryan Flaherty to one of these people).  What's pullin' your leg this time, sports fans?

Q: Adam, what's your favorite thing about Baltimore?
A: The airport, because that means I'm leaving town.

Rational people: Oh, Adam.  Always a jokester.

Orioles fans:

(for mobile users: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLiqJ8-T75A)

Remember that time Aubrey Huff called Baltimore a "horse shit town" and meant it 100% (and then promptly hit 32 home runs that year)?  That is something fans should be upset about.  But this?  A light hearted joke?  Earlier today, a caller called into 105.7 The Fan claiming he attended the Q&A, and said that Adams tone was clearly sarcastic and joking.  But some fans did not pick up on that tone, and a Twitter wave of "How dare Adam Jones say such things!" promptly crested.

Adam Jones blows a bubble in your general direction!

If you want to be mad at somebody, fans should be mad at the promotion organizer that thought it would be a good idea to hold this event around 6 PM, one hour before Jones was scheduled to take the field to do his job.  Jones claimed that this was the cause for his short, seemingly uninterested remarks during the session, which induced more anger in the Twittersphere (If Social Media Night sparks a Tweetidemic, does that mean it was a success?).  The fact that Adam Jones even showed up so close to gametime should speak volumes towards his character and how he really feels about this city and team.


Off topic (but on topic), recall before the Jeter-Star Game, Joe buck entered the American League locker room to ask Derek Jeter some pre-game questions.  This is what followed:




(for mobile users: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcqPURUCJ8I)

First of all, I'd like to say that this was staged and dumb.  But the Twitterverse could not stop praising Jeter for being focused and intense so close to game time. What a class act by Captain Clutch!

RELEVANT:

Jeter 1 for 13 for his career in the 9th inning with bases loaded and two outs. http://t.co/KJ0XYBqbA1
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) July 16, 2014

Could you imagine if Adam Jones did that to Gary Thorne?  Good lord.


Another hot topic this week has been the low attendance throughout the Rays series.  In the four games, Camden Yards had a paid attendance of 15,000, 16,000, 20,000, and 17,000 respectively.  This is significantly below the average for this year of 30,000.  All over social media and on the airwaves, there has been a war of words as to why the attendance was so low.


The critics (many of which didn't even attend the games, effectively making them hypocrites), are baffled as to how fans of a team with a commanding lead in the division during a playoff run could possibly not pack the yard every night and back their Birds.  Those who defend the fans claim the start of school in the area is the main factor.  So why did fans not show up in big numbers this week?

The crowd needs to be at least...three times bigger than this!

Well for one, the defenders are correct in the fact that school started this week in the Greater Baltimore area.  Those who scoff at this excuse need to look no further than the historical attendance at Camden Yards.  In 2012, the August 27th through 30th series against the White Sox saw attendance of 10,000, 12,000, 13,000, and 10,000.  This time in the 2011, 2010, 2009, etc.  seasons was no different.  A statistical analysis of these numbers reveals a correlation of school starting and attendance dropping.  "But the Orioles were bad in most of those years!"  While that is true, drop in attendance from summer to fall is still blatantly present.  "But fans should still support the team!  They're in a pennant race!" In the aforementioned 2012, which proved to be one of the most exciting seasons in Orioles history, the O's were on a run, closing the 10 game gap that the Yankees had opened up in the division, and the attendance drop at the end of August was still there.

Don't forget that the cost of attending a professional sporting event is not ideal.  Sure, the Orioles have some of the lowest ticket and food prices in MLB, but it's still more than free.  In a country with a recession slowly fading away in its rear view mirror, people are not going to spend as freely as they normally would.

The cheapest tickets in the park, not on Ollie's Bargain Night or Student Night, are $10 a pop for upper left field reserve.  If a family of five wants to attend a game, that's $50 right off the bat, and only if they sit up top.  Add on the cost of any food or merchandise and the travel some families are looking at close to a $150 night out.  I have had my fair share of solo trips to the yard, and my wallet usually ends up empty (as do the big cans of Miller Lite), so I give my pockets a break for a few games.  Baseball games are not cheap events.  The frugal types will tell you, "Just buy $10 tickets, bring your own food and drink and you'll be fine!" That's admirable, but not something the general public does when they go to a baseball game.

"Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jacks..." IT'S IN THE SONG, PEOPLE.

Another factor?  The opposing team.  Let's be real, the Rays are not the most attractive team to see play a game.  They just traded their best pitcher to Detroit, and their best player is in a down year.  Also they have Sean Rodriguez.  These are not the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Phillies, or any of those teams that have appeal outside of their own stadiums. (The Rays don't even have appeal inside their own stadium!)  Don't believe me? The Rays have the sixth lowest average road attendance in the league.  This weekend's visitors, the Minnesota Twins, are second to last in that category as well.  Once the big boys come back to town, the Yard will be full.

So while the Orioles continue to win games, win series, and run away with the AL East (knock on wood), Orioles fans continue to find something to complain about.  Upset with no runs with bases loaded?  Cool.  Irked by an inning ending double play? Yeah, that's rough.  But this?  A joke and attendance?  C'mon O's fans

This article will undoubtedly receive flak, which almost proves my point, but why don't we all sit back and enjoy the best Baltimore Orioles team in 17 years and not nitpick everything like your 12th grade economics teacher?

2014 is a special year in Baltimore, let's focus on that.

Unpress the Panic Button!

Let me start off by answering a few questions. Yes, the Orioles were just swept at Wrigley Field by the lowly Cubs. Yes, the Orioles division lead has been reduced from 9 to 6 games. Yes, the sky is falling.

Okay, I made that last one up, but given some of the fan explosions on social media the last few days, you’d think it was the case. I realize it’s been a rough week for the Orioles. They posted their first losing road trip of the season and lost three straight games for the first time in three months. I’d say that’s a pretty impressive accomplishment. They had a rough trip (4-5) against subpar competition, but O’s fans should not feel that embarrassed. The Indians are one of the AL’s best home teams (14 games above .500, 11 games under on the road), and the Cubs are a .500 home team that does most of their losing on the road. Throw in the fact that the Orioles are 18-25 in day games this season and, well, let’s just be thankful 95% of playoff games are after dark.

The problem with a good chunk of Orioles fans is they look at everything this team does in a vacuum:

Swept by the Cubs? Season’s over! I guess the NL West-leading Dodgers should throw in the towel as well. They lost a series to the Cubs AT HOME three weeks ago.

Lose a series to the “lowly” Indians at Progressive Field (a team that is above .500, by the way…and as previously mentioned, 14 games over at home)? Season over! Someone better break the news to Tigers, Angels and Royals fans that there will be no postseason this year. All three teams lost series at Progressive Field this season.

Manny Machado is out for the season? Season over! Nevermind that the Orioles are 26-19 without Machado’s services this season. You would think O’s fans would have learned their lesson after they proclaimed the season over when Wieters suffered a season-ending injury. While Caleb Joseph and Nick Hundley aren’t the hitters Wieters is, both have combined to match his home run production and provide good (Hundley) to exceptional (Joseph) defense.

Manny Machado's season-ending knee injury does NOT
spell the end of the Orioles postseason hopes. 

I’m not trying to minimize the challenges facing the Orioles. They’re going to have to bring it in September and an anemic offense is going to have to find its rhythm again. Chris Davis and his .190 average – he is currently dead last in the majors in BA of all qualified contenders – are not the answer at third base. The Orioles need to solve that problem fast, whether it’s finding a solution in the minors or trading for someone. Adrian Beltre is an intriguing name – he cleared waivers, so the Orioles do not have to navigate that minefield. But he is signed through next season with an option for 2016, so Texas is not parting with him cheaply.

Orioles fans need to remain calm though. This team still has a 6 game lead over the New York Yankees, who are pulling out wins with a patchwork team at the moment. Only the Nationals have a bigger lead in their division. The Birds have the fourth best record in the majors and their pitching is still going strong, including a bullpen that is among the best in baseball. This is not last year’s team that completely ran out of gas going into September. Workloads have been managed well and everyone should be as fresh as can be expected going into the final month. I’m sure many have visions of last year’s disastrous, season-crushing series loss in Arizona. That is not what this was. The Orioles couldn’t find their bats against some pitchers who have been pitching well this season – even before the Orioles got there – and they had to play three consecutive day games, which for whatever reason, are a weakness for them this year.

The Orioles now begin an 11-game homestand featuring four games with TB, four games with Minnesota and three games with Cincinnati. After that, it’s nothing but divisional games the rest of the way. Judging by social media responses, a lot of people are worried about that, as they seem to think it means the mighty Yankees will use their remaining eight head-to-head games to leapfrog the Orioles.

Let me inject a little sunshine into your day. Who can tell me what the following numbers mean: 7-6, 8-3, 8-4, 7-6? Those numbers, respectively, are the Orioles’ records this season against Boston, New York, Tampa Bay and Toronto. They have owned this division. They have steamrolled it, ground it into a pulp and trampled over the dust. That equals a 30-19 record in the AL East. Toronto is the only other team in the East with a winning record against the division, at 28-23. 

I know weeks like this past week can be frustrating, especially when the Orioles are playing teams most people view as inferior, but the fact is winning on the road in professional baseball is never easy or guaranteed. A 4-5 trip is solid, especially when it’s their first losing trip of the season. But the Birds have risen to the challenge this season and beaten the teams they’ve needed to beat. That hasn’t been the case in years past, and should bring comfort to O’s fans.

Some final parting thoughts to brighten your evening – let’s see where the Orioles rank among American League playoff contenders in record since the trade deadline:

Kansas City: 17-4 (Wow!) 
Seattle: 14-6 
Baltimore: 13-7 
Los Angeles: 12-9 
New York: 11-9 
Oakland: 10-11 
Detroit: 11-12

The boys in black and orange are sitting pretty. So let’s take a step back from the cliff, take a deep breath, settle into that oversized La-Z-Boy and enjoy a September ride for the ages.

And for those of you that still insist on pressing the panic button, Jim Carrey has a little message for you.

--Christopher Mills, cjmills82

A Hat For A Homer

 

Like most Orioles fans that grew up in the 1990's, I was a giant Cal Ripken Jr. fan. I was such a big fan that I thought I would be the next Cal Ripken and had to play shortstop my first year of little league. And not only did I have to play shortstop but I had to have number 8 as my jersey number. As my first season was starting my dad went to a Sloper's (anyone remember Sloper's?) one day to get me batting gloves or something else small. I can't remember what exactly it was. But when he came home he told me he saw something in the Sloper's, something awesome. He told me about a Cal Ripken hat. I didn't understand. First, what was a Cal Ripken hat? And second, why didn't he bring the hat home with him?

He would explain that the hat had RIPKEN on it, with a number 8 in the middle and some sort of replica of his autograph sown into the hat. I was beyond excited about it. I was adamant that I must have it. My dad wasn't just gonna get it for me cause I wanted it, so he made me a deal. If I got a home run during the season he would get me the hat.

Now I wasn't a guy with much power, especially when I was a little kid. I was a string bean. So getting a home run--in my first year of little league no less--was not something that I was sure I could accomplish. But I was motivated to get that Ripken hat. I had dreams of smacking a ball over the fence and getting the hat.

As the season was about midway through it didn't look like I was gonna get a home run. I was swinging and missing a lot. I couldn't find a bat that worked for me. They were either too long or too heavy. I was a string bean, remember. One day my dad came home from work with a new bat for me. This bat was as long as most of the bats I had been trying to use, but lighter. At practice I was crushing the ball with this new bat. All the sudden I could get to the ball with the lighter bat.

I started to make better contact in games. I remember smashing a ball one game, but foul by a mile. I was not happy. I thought I was gonna get my hat with that one off the bat. A few games later I crushed a ball into left field corner. It was off the wall for a sure double. As I got to second I was slowing down, but as happens in little league there was trouble getting the ball in the outfield. My coach was waving me on. So I picked my speed back up and ran for third. He wasn't stopping there; he was sending me home! As I rounded third I thought oh this might be it. This would count! My dad never said it had to be a home run that left the field, just a home run. An inside-the-park home run would count just the same. So I rounded third on my way home. Sprinting with all the speed my little legs had left, I touched home. I had done it! An inside the park home run! I remember leaping from home plate to the fence behind the plate (which had to be a few feet) where my parents were sitting. As I reached the fence I pointed at my dad and said, “You owe me a hat,” as they were all cheering and yelling. I walked back to the dugout, more excited about my soon to be hat than the home run.

I still have the hat. Cal is still my favorite player. And that story is one of my best and most favorite memories from the time I played baseball.

-Matt Baggette @mlb930

The Jake Arrieta Project

This weekend the Orioles will visit the Cubs, and on Friday they will face a familiar pitcher in Jake Arrieta. Jake is having a great year for the Cubs, posting a 6-4 record with an ERA of 2.61 in 19 starts. Seeing these numbers (and especially if he pitches well or even beats the Orioles), many Orioles fans will be lamenting the fact the Orioles ever traded him.

I guess these people don't remember how bad Arrieta was as an Oriole. In 63 starts (69 appearances) over 4 seasons he went 20-25 with an ERA of 5.46. Let that sink in. An ERA of 5.46. In 2012 his ERA was 6.20. Last season it was 7.23 before the Orioles traded him. He also averaged 4 walks per 9 innings, had a WHIP of 1.47, and averaged only 5 innings per start in his time as an Oriole. His best ERA in a season was his rookie year and it was 4.66. Every other season it was over 5. That's not just bad. That's Daniel Cabrera bad.

Photo Credit: USA Today

 Jake always had the “stuff” to be a good starting pitcher. But he could never get his head straight while in an Orioles uniform. How many times did it look like he was cruising and he would completely lose the strike zone, outthinking himself and getting himself into trouble? The Orioles sent him back to the minors in 2013, before finally trading him to the Cubs in the Scott Feldman deal.

At the time I could only say good job on this trade. Feldman was a solid veteran pitcher and Jake had a ton of chances and was not able to get the job done. The Orioles were trying to make the playoffs again in 2013 and had to bolster the rotation. The trade also sent Pedro Strop packing and no matter what the return in the trade was, sending him out of town was a plus.

Scott Feldman pitched well for the Orioles, but he wasn't able to help the team make the playoffs. I am sure a lot of people now will look at this trade and say what a horrible deal it was .Feldman didn't help the team make the playoffs and now Arrieta is pitching so well for the Cubs and Feldman is in Houston. I disagree. They Orioles needed a veteran pitcher that could give them innings last year in their playoff push and they'd given Arrieta more than enough chances.

Arrieta needed a change of scenery. While it's far from scientific, sometimes it's just that simple - guys need a change of scenery to succeed. Sometimes a trade is a kick in the butt, a wake up call. There is also far less pressure pitching for the Cubs right now than for the Orioles. The Cubs are not expected to win anything right now. The Orioles are in contention for the third consecutive season. Taking that into consideration, there is no guarantee that he would be pitching the same way in a much higher pressure situation in Baltimore if he was still on the team.

Photo Credit: foxnews.com

On top of all that, how would Arrieta have even made the team this year? After getting Bud Norris at the trade deadline last year, signing Ubaldo Jimenez in the offseason, and the likes of Kevin Gausman waiting in the wings there would have been little chance he would have made the team out of spring training. I for one am glad to see Arrieta pitching well now. I always liked him. But I am also not sorry the Orioles traded him, I just don't think he would have ever “gotten it” in Baltimore.

So even if he pitches well, heck even if he beats the Orioles, just remember how bad he was here and how many chances he got before you go cursing the Orioles for trading him. He needed to go somewhere else to figure it out. He needed a lower-pressure situation. I will still be rooting for him to pitch well (he's on one of my fantasy teams, after all ;) ) - just not when he takes the mound vs. the Orioles this weekend. On that day, I will be hoping he pitches like he did in an Oriole uniform.

--Matt Baggette @mlb930

Much Ado About Ubaldo

For now, Ubaldo will look for greener pastures out in the bullpen. (USATSI)

Going into this past offseason, the one clear area of need for the Orioles was starting pitching. As a whole, the team's starters performed rather poorly in 2013, finishing 18th in ERA, 26th in innings pitched, and 27th in strikeouts. Due to some injuries and acquisitions, there was little stability in the rotation. Ten different starters made at least five starts for the O's, and four more pitchers made one spot start each. How about a little trivia: How many of those 14 pitchers can you name (answers below)?

Though the Birds had a bright future to look forward to with Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy continuing to mature, along with Chris Tillman becoming the de facto ace after posting a 16-7 record in 2013, they still needed to do something in the offseason to upgrade their rotation. Hammel and Feldman were free agents. Arrieta was traded to the Cubs to acquire Feldman. Freddy Garcia went into an Old Country Buffet and was never seen from again. A rotation of Tillman, Gonzalez, Chen, Norris, and Gausman was possible, but Gausman had still not proven himself at the Major League Level, and any injury to that group would have meant the likes of McFarland or Stinson pitching every fifth day, which would cause women and children to vomit in terror.

The only sure thing among free agent pitchers this offseason was Masahiro Tanaka, but he was too expensive for the O's given the silly posting rules that require teams to put up extreme sums of money just for the opportunity to make eye contact with various NPB* players. The rest of the pitching market was full of B- and C-list pitchers. Out of a group of Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Bronson Arroyo, and A.J. Burnett, the O's went with Ubaldo, who carried the most risk but also the most upside of any pitcher, for four years and $50 million. But so far this season, Ubaldo has been a big disappointment. After losing to his old team on Saturday, he currently sports a 4-9 record with a 4.83 ERA and 5.4 BB/9. This prompted manager Buck Showalter to announce that Ubaldo will be moved into the bullpen, at least for the time being. But with 39 games left in the season and three more years under contract, what should the O's do with Ubaldo moving forward? 

Let's start with some of the less intelligent suggestions I've heard from fans...

"Send him down!"

The thing about baseball is, teams can't just send any player to the minors any time they want. After guys have been in the league for a few years, they can't go down to the minors unless they agree to it. If Ubaldo doesn't agree to it (and why would he?), he's free to sign with another team, or free even to sit at home and collect his $50 million.

"Just cut him!"

Ubaldo has been a disappointment this year, but like many pitchers he has good years and bad years. Just because this is a bad year doesn't mean he won't be able to get his mojo back in Year 2 or Year 3 of the contract. Let's not forget that contracts in baseball are guaranteed; cutting him does not absolve the team from paying the remainder of his $50 million contract. The same fans that are clamoring to see him off the team would be beside themselves if he were to catch on with a club like New York and start hitting his stride.

"Trade him and Flaherty for Yu Darvish!"
You are so dumb. You are really dumb. For real.

Now, moving on to the more feasible solutions...

The Six-Man Rotation
This option is probably only doable once the rosters expand in September, as Buck has stated multiple times he does not like to play a man short in either the bullpen or the bench. However, once the 40-man rosters are allowed in the clubhouse, you could carry a six-man rotation for the month of September. This could also carry the advantage of keeping the starters better rested for the postseason. If the Orioles enter the final month with a sizeable lead, this could be their best option.

Keep Him In The Bullpen
The O's could keep the rotation intact and leave Ubaldo in the bullpen, like a bull in some kind of pen. It is difficult to say how this move will work out, as Ubaldo has practically no experience as a reliever and it is unclear as to how he's going to be used down the stretch. This could also end up being the plan in 2015, as all Baltimore starters are under team control next season.

Keep Him In The Rotation
Well, that's the entire problem and purpose of this column. If that were a solution, this entire experience will have been a waste of my time and yours.

Tandem Him With Another Starter
This is slightly different than the six-man rotation. Rather than getting a full start every sixth game, Ubaldo would be paired with another starter to create a tandem. The idea is that each pitcher throws around 75 pitches, which could give your bullpen a night off if the pitchers are effective. The probable partners in this scenario are Gonzalez or Gausman. Sounds great, right? No, no it does not. In addition to making the rotation worse, this also thins out the bullpen in the same manner as the six-man rotation.

So as much as I'd love to see Ubaldo turn it around, it appears for now the best option is to keep him in the bullpen. If he can show some effectiveness in long relief, he could be an asset in the postseason. Let's wait until Spring Training to give him another shot at the rotation, though.

Answer: Chris Tillman (33 starts), Miguel Gonzalez (28), Jason Hammel (23), Wei-Yin Chen (23), Scotty Too Hotty Feldman (15), Freddy Garcia (10), Budrick Thatherton Norris (9), Zach Britton (7), Kevin Gausman (5), Jake Arrieta (5), T.J. McFarland (1), Jair Jurrjens (1), Steve Johnson (1), John Steveson Josh Stinson (1)

*What's NPB? "NPB stands for Nippon Professional Baseball."

Oh....what's Nippon? "Nippon is what Japanese people call Japan."

Ah, ok....what's Japan? "Leave me alone."

--Nathan Mullenax (@otwNathan)

Tigers Getting the Not-So-Royal Treatment

As the Orioles wade into the AL Central waters this week, I think it’s time to take a look at what is happening in that division – specifically, at the top. The Royals and Tigers have provided baseball’s biggest drama of late, but for very different reasons. The Royals have been on a tear recently, including a 12-2 stretch since the trade deadline. The Tigers are sliding, just 7-8 since the deadline and 8-13 in their last 21. Why is the deadline so crucial? That’s when the Tigers, a first-place team at the time, acquired David Price, making them the proverbial lock in the AL Central. Now, just 16 days later, the Tigers sit 1.5 games back in the division and if the season ended today, they wouldn’t even make the playoffs. So what went wrong?

The continued struggles of Justin Verlander and the loss of Anibal Sanchez and Joakim Soria to the disabled list certainly have not helped. But the biggest reason the Tigers are struggling is – brace yourselves – the acquisition of Price.

Price himself is not the problem, as he definitely improves the team, but it’s how they acquired him that really did the damage. The Tigers gave up pitcher Drew Smyly, centerfielder Austin Jackson and minor league shortstop Willy Adames.  So what’s so bad about that? I’m glad you asked.

Any rotation that replaces Drew Smyly with David Price is going to be better, there’s no question about that. The problem is, the rotation was the Tigers’ biggest strength. Smyly and Verlander were having mediocre years, but collectively this season, Max Scherzer, Sanchez and Rick Porcello are one of the better 1-2-3 punches in baseball. Their offense and defense were solid as well. The black hole for the Tigers was their bullpen, which continues to struggle. Their 4.38 ERA bests only Houston, Colorado, and the White Sox. The Tigers acquired Soria in a pre-deadline deal, but it wasn’t enough. Someone like Andrew Miller – who ended up in Baltimore – should have been their deadline priority, but instead they opted for Price.

Did Dave Dombrowski take the
wrong approach at the deadline?

Let’s delve into the flaw in Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski’s deadline philosophy. Whenever draft time rolls around in any sport, you always hear the debate over taking the best player on the board vs. addressing the biggest need. Both strategies have merit, as drafting a superstar player at a position of strength can open up trade possibilities or provide much-needed depth. When it comes to free agency, however, pursuing the best overall player without regard to addressing your biggest needs is always a recipe for disaster. For the Tigers, addressing their rotation did nothing to solve the problem of their weak bullpen, unless they planned for their starters to complete every game for the rest of the season.

Case in point, the Tigers disastrous visit to Toronto last weekend. Max Scherzer pitched 8 dominant innings against the Jays before Joe Nathan blew the save in the 9^th. The Tigers lost in extras. The next day, Price pitched well early on before giving up a few runs late. Nevertheless, the Tigers took a lead into the 9^th again, which Joba Chamberlain promptly blew. The Tigers would eventually lose that game in 19 innings. Talk about a letdown.

In Max Scherzer’s next start against Pittsburgh, he pitched 8 outstanding innings of shutout ball and left with a 2-0 lead. Luckily the Tigers scored a couple insurance runs in the bottom of the 8^th, because the bullpen allowed 2 runs in the ninth before nailing it down. A good rotation means nothing if you can never count on your bullpen to protect the leads your starters give you.

Austin Jackson could be more of a factor
in the postseason race than people thought

As if that wasn’t bad enough, now comes the Austin Jackson dilemma. The Tigers committed what I believe to be a cardinal sin in professional sports – they filled one hole by creating another. And part of the problem they’ve encountered is that the hole they created is bigger than the one they filled. Ezequiel Carrera has held his own since being given the centerfield job, but Jackson’s contributions to the team go beyond his numbers. He’s a dependable and rangy outfielder in a cavernous ballpark, and he has the potential to be a disruptive sparkplug in the batting order.

The Seattle Mariners were reeling as the deadline approached. They were 9-14 in their previous 23 games and had completely surrendered their hold on the second wild card spot, falling 3 games behind both Toronto and Kansas City. Since acquiring Jackson to sit atop their lineup and man centerfield at Safeco Field, the Mariners are 10-2, having passed both Toronto and Detroit to once again sit in the final playoff position in the American League.

Comparing Seattle to Detroit clearly illustrates the flaw in going after a top free agent without any regard for the composition of the rest of your roster. No one in their right mind would argue that Austin Jackson is better than David Price. Price is an ace and a difference maker and 30 teams would love to have him. But Detroit acquired him by dealing a key offensive and defensive player, and without any regard for the issues that still existed at the back of their bullpen. The Mariners, on the other hand, filled a huge need at the top of their lineup, got a good defensive player for a big ballpark, and only surrendered a backup infielder to make it happen.

Detroit still has the talent to turn things around and make the playoffs, but an argument can be made they may have been better off keeping what they had and adding someone like Miller, than going after David Price in what could potentially be viewed as overkill in the rotation. But now, the Tigers must overcome two hungry, confident teams with a ton of momentum (one of which they directly aided in the improvement effort) in order to avert total disaster in a season in which many thought they were a lock to represent the American League in the World Series.

These toothless Tigers need to find their bite quickly, or it will be a long and painful offseason in Detroit.

--Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

National media is worse than Wikipedia

Dear Orioles Fans,

I have a sincere question for you all. Why the hell do you all care so much about what ESPN or anyone else in the national media says? I don't get it. Explain it to me. Explain to me why after a great win like the Orioles had over the Yankees on Wednesday night, all the focus is on how ESPN doesn't give the Orioles credit, they are in love with New York and Boston, and on and on and on. I see and hear things like, "the Orioles are never on national T.V.!" (No, not at all. They were only on ESPN this week and last. And on Fox 1 Saturday. The blasphemy). Or how about, "No one picks the Orioles to win anything!" Really?

Have a look at this. http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview14/story/_/id/10638313/espn-expert-team-predictions-2014-baseball-season

The Orioles are picked here by 2 experts to win the division, by 3 to win the wild card, and even picked by one to go to the World Series. And yet "no one ever picks the Orioles"?

And finally, "The Orioles are not high enough in the power rankings!" I am at a loss as to why these things matter to people.

Is it nice to be talked about? Sure. But I don't see it as important at all. If the national media isn't giving the team attention what does it matter? The team is in first place. They have the biggest lead of any division leader in baseball. So they aren't getting as much attention as other teams, some of which (the Yankees) are not as good as them. So what? What does all that attention do for the Yankees? It's not gonna make them win anymore games. Being picked to win by the “experts” doesn't mean the team is going to win anything. If you go back and look at who is picked every year you would be surprised how few predictions they actually get correct. So I don't know why anyone pays these predictions so much attention.

The power rankings are an arbitrary list that means nothing (and not to mention a list that is different for every single media outlet). People constantly get worked up over them. I say let them not pay attention to the Orioles. The only rankings I care about are the AL East rankings and in case people hadn't noticed, the Orioles sit at the top of those.

I also wonder why anyone is still going to ESPN for anything. By now we should all understand the way ESPN works. They have gotten worse and worse year after year in their pursuit of ratings. They drool over a few select teams or players and gloss over or ignore everyone else. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. There are too many other options out there for me to waste my time with ESPN and their poor coverage.

Maybe it's just me, but I really don't get concerned with this stuff. It doesn't matter one bit to me and I don't get why it matters to other Orioles fans. It's not going to make the team better if they are talked about more, or worse if they're seemingly ignored. Sometimes (see: the Angels of 2012 and 2013) too much attention and hype can be detrimental. All that really matters is that the team keeps playing well on the field. None of the talk or predictions will change how they play on the field. And hell, isn't it more fun to prove them all wrong anyway?

-Matt Baggette @mlb930

Crying In Baseball: Invoking The Unwritten Rules

Most fans are familiar with baseball’s “unwritten rules,” an amorphous collection of mostly arbitrary guidelines that serves as the sport’s code of etiquette. The topics of this fictitious instruction manual include everything from how to react after hitting a home run to when it’s okay to intentionally throw a baseball at the other team’s best player. This year, seemingly more than in years past, the unwritten rules have been frequently debated, but it’s time to dump this antiquated view of baseball decorum.

In late May, the Boston Red Sox were in Tampa for a series that, at the time, was not a meeting of AL East also-rans. In the bottom of the seventh inning, with Tampa leading 8-3, Yunel Escobar stole third base without a throw from Boston catcher A.J. Pierzynski. The Boston reserves started yelling at Escobar, and when he yelled back the benches cleared. After the game, Red Sox backup catcher/sergeant-at-arms David Ross told the media that the “whole team took exception to the stolen base, two outs in the [seventh].” Incidentally, Boston stole a base when leading by five runs in the 2013 playoffs against Tampa.

Andrew McCutcheon is currently on the DL with a rib injury,

an indirect result of getting hit by a 95mph Randall Delgado

fastball. The move was a retaliation by Arizona after Paul 

Goldschmidt was inadvertently struck in the hand.

(Photo Credit: www.arizonasports.com)

Earlier this month, Pittsburgh and Arizona played a series in which the machismo and false bravado of the unwritten rules was on full display. In the second game of the series, the Pirates led Arizona 9-4 in the bottom of the ninth. Diamondbacks star Paul Goldschmidt had come off the bench and was standing in the box against Pirates reliever Ernesto Frieri. Frieri threw a fastball that came too far inside, hitting Goldschmidt and breaking his hand. This was a very unfortunate play, but injuries happen in baseball and there was nothing to suggest that hit-by-pitch was intentional. But all that didn’t matter to D-backs manager Kirk Gibson, who retaliated by throwing at Pirates star Andrew McCutchen the following night. After the game, Gibson ironically muttered, “Guys get hit. It’s part of the game.”

Perhaps the most egregious example of the moral outrage that goes with the unwritten rules came from a July game between Texas and Toronto. The Blue Jays were ahead 2-0 in the bottom of the fifth, when Colby Rasmus came to the plate to face Colby Lewis. The Rangers employed a defensive shift against Rasmus, leaving the left side of the infield largely unguarded. Rasmus bunted for an easy single, which the other Colby thought was a cheesy move. The two exchanged words on the diamond, and after the game Lewis accused Rasmus of laying down the bunt simply to improve his batting average. Evidently he is under the impression that his teammates are allowed to crowd the right side of the field and the batter must attempt to hit it through the extra defenders.

The hypocrisy and faulty logic are evident in each of these examples, but that’s not the most glaring problem. The problem is that when players and coaches cite the unwritten rules, they’re admitting defeat whether they realize it or not. In the first example, the Sox were down by five late in the game. While a loss is certainly likely, it’s in no way certain. David Ross was essentially saying, “There’s no way we can score five runs in the last two innings. Tampa should just run out the clock so we can go home.”

Gibson apparently had no faith in his team either. He complained to the media that Pittsburgh was still throwing inside when Goldschmidt was hurt. Did he expect the Pirates to just put the ball on a tee for his team? Why not just forfeit the game at that point? At least then there wouldn’t be any chance for injury.

"There's no crying in baseball!"

Jimmy Dugan would have a field day with the players in 

today's game. 

And, of course, Colby Lewis’s rant that Rasmus shouldn’t be allowed to do whatever he can in order to get on base in the fifth inning of a two-run game is just preposterous. At that point, the game is still very much undecided.


This isn’t the powerhouse high school football team leading the junior varsity 49-0 in the second quarter. This is Major League Baseball and these are professional athletes. If players and coaches aren’t willing to put up with differing styles and personalities and opponents giving 100% no matter what the score, maybe they should choose a different profession. Stop crying and start playing hard.

--Nathan Mullenax, @otwNathan

The Man Behind the Curtain

The Baltimore Orioles currently sit 18 games above .500 and 6 games ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays for first place in the AL East. They are on the cusp of their third straight winning season and second playoff appearance in 3 years following a 14 year drought. There are many who receive – and deserve – credit for the resurgence, including Andy MacPhail; Buck Showalter; the young, deep and talented roster the Orioles have assembled; and yes, even the much-maligned Peter Angelos.

But now, with the Orioles poised to make a run at their first AL East title since 1997, it’s time to look at the true architect behind this growing juggernaut: Dan Duquette.

(By the way, if you want some context: the last time the Orioles won a division title, Seinfeld ruled the airwaves, Titanic was still a coming attraction and the world had not yet been introduced to a certain White House intern).

Dan Duquette has assembled a young,
talented team with unrivaled depth.
(Photo Credit: Baltimore Sun)

If there is one thing I've learned about Orioles fans of late, it is that we are collectively an insecure and impatient bunch. Not often much for looking at the big picture, many of us react on a moment-by-moment, inning-by-inning, game-by-game, move-by-move basis. This past offseason was one of incredible insanity, as fans seemed to find some reason to lament each and every move Dan Duquette made (or didn't make). So now that the Orioles are advancing quickly to the top of the major leagues in wins, let’s take a stroll down memory lane and examine Dan Duquette’s offseason.

Brian Roberts & Nate McLouth

Like a child who refuses to part with their beloved blanket, despite the fact it has been reduced to nothing more than a clump of dirty fibers, many fans did not take well to these two popular players being shown the door. I was a fan of both for their contributions to the Orioles, but they made no sense in the context of the team’s current blueprint, and thus Duquette let them walk – and rightly so. McLouth, after signing a substantial 2 year/$10.75M contract, hit just .173/.280/.237 in 139 ABs for Washington before he hit the DL, where he currently resides. Roberts was significantly cheaper and did give the Yankees 25 extra base hits, but he hit just .237/.300/.360 and was ultimately designated for assignment.

Advantage: Duquette

Jim Johnson

Oh how fans ripped Mr. D over this one. Nevermind the ridiculous $10M salary he was going to command or how badly he struggled throughout the season last year – it was all about those shiny 50 saves. When you put it in context though, he only saved 84% of this opportunities, which is very mediocre for a closer and certainly not worth $10M (Craig Kimbrel saved 50 games in 6 fewer chances). I won’t even post Johnson’s stats here out of respect for him and his family, but after a disastrous tenure in Oakland, he was released and currently resides in Toledo, waiting for the call to join an abysmal Tigers bullpen where he should feel right at home.

Advantage: Duquette

Ryan Webb

Ryan Webb is a bit of an enigma. After signing a 2 year/$4.5M contract, some were touting him as a potential closer option in spring training. But early in the season, it didn't seem Showalter was sure when or how to use him. He pitched in a variety of innings and game situations, and compiled a 3.80 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 42.2 innings. After some recent shaky outings, Webb got tangled up in an overstocked bullpen and demoted to AAA Norfolk. I fully expect him to contribute in September.

Advantage: Ryan Webb’s bank account

Grant Balfour

Sorry Grant, I don't think Dan
is regretting his decision.
(Photo Credit: Associated Press)

Dare I even touch this one? I didn't think Orioles fans could turn as rabid as they did when it was announced Balfour’s contract was being voided due to a failed physical. It was like Rosie O’Donnell being cut off at the buffet. We’re talking pure rage here. Peter Angelos and Double D bore the brunt of the wrath as fans viewed it as a sign of the team’s supposedly cheap ways being evidenced yet again. Never mind that they spent weeks ironing out a deal and agreeing to the money. But I digress.

So how did it all pan out? With O’s fans still grumbling, Balfour signed on with the Rays, telling Duquette he’d just made the worst mistake of his life. Is that so, Grant? How’s that closer job working out for you?

“Knock knock”
“Who’s there?”
“Look at my…”
“Look at my who?”
“Look at my 5.24 ERA, 7.1 BB/9 and 1.61 WHIP. Isn’t it beautiful???”

Advantage: Duquette and Balfour’s shrink

Delmon Young

The O’s signed Delmon on the cheap, hoping he’d provide depth in the OF and at DH. The move was surprisingly criticized as fans accused DD of mining the scrap heap while other teams stocked up on prime free agents. All Young has done is contribute a .309/.341/.455 slash line and lead the AL in pinch hits. What a disgrace! He’s been a surprisingly valuable asset and look for the O’s to retain him next season if they can’t hold on to Nelson Cruz.

Advantage: Duquette…and all the beer leaguers who draw MLB inspirations from watching Delmon play

Ervin Santana/Tim Hudson/Bronson Arroyo

All three were on the Orioles radar at various points and DD was questioned or criticized when each one signed elsewhere. Sorry folks, but just because a player goes elsewhere, doesn't automatically mean the O’s didn't want them or didn't try hard enough. Hudson said he only wanted to play for the Athletics or Giants (neither of which play in Maryland, last time I checked), Arroyo wanted to stay in the National League (and is having a less-than-stellar, injury-plagued season), and Santana opted for the NL as well once it was established he would only get a one-year deal and wanted to maximize his value.

Advantage: Twitter?

Cruz has helped the O's overcome
Chris Davis's power outage
(Photo Credit: MLB.com)

Nelson Cruz

I don’t think much needs to be said here. Despite a recent slump, Cruz is having an MVP-caliber season that has allowed the Orioles to compensate for the disappearance of Chris Davis's bat from a year ago. At $8M, he is possibly the biggest bargain in the major leagues.

Advantage: Everyone

Ubaldo Jimenez

And alas, that brings us to the biggest conundrum of them all: Ubaldo Jimenez. The free agent pitcher with the most tantalizing talent and highest upside, but also the greatest potential for disaster – which is what the O’s have seen so far. Given this is the first year of a rather hefty 4 year/$52M deal, the O’s hope they can find the Ubaldo of yesteryear – who went 4-0 in six September starts with an ERA under 2.00 and carried the Indians into the playoffs. Walks have been the biggest problem for Ubaldo, as he surprisingly leads the Orioles in K/9 and fewest H/9. If he can find the strike zone more in the season’s final two months, he is an ace-in-waiting. After a month-long DL stint, the O’s are hoping he’s turned a corner.

Advantage: Opposing hitters’ cardio

Let’s face it folks – not every move a GM makes is going to work out, but I think it’s safe to say Duquette has done an amazing job judging talent, piling up depth (O’s have not been crippled by injuries the way other teams have) and working within a likely owner-imposed budget to field a first place team. He has a shrewd eye and knows what struggling or washed-up players still have gas left in the tank.

Duquette is the man who assembled a Montreal Expos juggernaut that likely would have won the World Series in 1994, and built the core of a Red Sox team that would go on to win the World Series shortly after his exit in 2004. The man knows what he’s doing and has a system that works. Despite the “I was the president of the Math Club AND Chess Club” look, Dan clearly knows his baseball and has brought a strong (and likely lasting) winning tradition back to Baltimore. I think it’s time we gave him our complete trust.

Wouldn't you agree, Grant?

--Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

Catching On

When it was announced that Matt Wieters had a problem with his UCL (ulnar-collateral ligament), I,  like most Orioles fans, was worried. It didn't sound good. And when the dreaded words "he is off to see Doctor James Andrews” were stated, it sounded even worse. Matt Wieters was having his best offensive season to date, sporting a .308/.339/.500 (131 OPS+) line with five doubles, five homers, and 18 RBI. He was having an All-Star caliber season. But on June 16^th, it was made official that he would have season ending Tommy John surgery. It was a big blow for the 2014 Orioles.

Wieters' offensive numbers aside, he has always been one of the better defensive catchers in the game. He has thrown out 33% of would-be basestealers in his career. Not to mention whenever an Orioles pitcher has talked about Matt Wieters, they always spoke with nothing but the highest regard for the way he handles the pitching staff. So with his season over, many people on various Orioles fan sites were all in a tizzy with the doom and gloom statements. I didn't think the season was over by any means, though it was undeniably a blow for the team. How would they be able to replace a catcher like Wieters?

In stepped Caleb Joseph.

I knew of Caleb Joseph. I had seen his name for years. I had also seen his name listed at AA Bowie for what felt like forever. He spent time at Bowie in 2009, '10, '11, '12 and '13. I had never seen him play, but when seeing this, I just thought he was nothing more than a career minor leaguer; a AAAA player. When it came to reading up on him, all I saw were things like, "he can hit but not so sure about his defense."

The following is from the 2009 Baseball America scouting report: (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/87489 )

Strengths: The more you see Joseph, the more you like him, and that seems to go for everyone from scouts to managers to pitchers, who love working with him. His tools grade out as average across the board, but his performance is consistently above-average. He understands his swing and knows how to hit, consistently centering the ball and hitting it where it's pitched. He's a good athlete and blocks and receives well. He has an average arm.

Weaknesses: Joseph's swing can get long and funky, and he'll have to hit with more power to stay out of the lower part of a batting order. He has to work on his footwork, and his release time is a bit slow. He'll need to get stronger to handle catching every day.

Even when looking at the season Joseph had in 2013, .299/.346/.494 with 22 HRs and 97 RBI, earning him Eastern League player of the year honors, I said ok but that was at AA. Nothing to see here. Not only was it at AA, but he was 27 years old; no longer really prospect status.

With Joseph's call-up when Wieters went down, I wasn't expecting a whole lot. He seemed like a career minor league player that had scouting reports question his defense. I was worried about it for sure, though I figured Steve Clevenger would get most of the playing time. Clevenger then struggled with throwing runners out: only 15%.That wasn't gonna cut it. He wasn't hitting much either. Something had to be done. The Orioles then traded for veteran catcher Nick Hundley from the San Diego Padres. Hundley looked to be a solid pick up. Decent bat and had thrown out 36% in 2011 and 32% of base stealers in 2012. But Hundley struggled to an 18% caught stealing and wasn't hitting much either.

Following the trade, the team sent Steve Clevenger down and kept Joseph. I wasn't sure what the team was doing or what to think. Joseph did not get off to a great start with the bat, the tool that was supposed to be his strength. Through 39 games in the first half he hit .187/.262/.308. He did manage to hit 3 home runs, but his offense was ultimately not impressive. 

But what Joseph was lacking early on with the bat, he was making up for with his supposedly average-to-below-average defense. He was throwing out runners at an insane rate. As of this writing, he had thrown out 46% of would be basestealers. Not only that, the team has a 3.04 ERA when he's behind the plate. I've been impressed with the way he frames pitches and overall receives pitches. His glove never seems to move. He presents a great target. So it would appear all the scouting reports on his defense were wrong, which was a pleasant surprise.

Joseph has put a lot of work into improving his footwork, which was always a knock on him. Maybe the perception of him having a weak arm was do to his poor footwork and not getting good throws off. Whatever the cause for him getting the label of a bad defender, he has played very well behind the plate. In the second half of the season his bat has come on, hitting .309/.333/.655 with 5 home runs(those came in 5 straight games no less). It took him a little longer to get to the bigs, and it took some work to shake off things he had been labeled, but Joseph is here and he is filling the void for one of the biggest pieces of the Orioles. In a season that has been fun to watch , Caleb Joseph has been one of the biggest and most pleasant surprises.

--Matt Baggette @mlb930

Crush & Burn

Loyalty vs. Performance – one of biggest and oldest dilemmas in professional sports. Which is of greater importance? Some are of the “what have you done for me lately?” philosophy – meaning as soon as a player stops performing, replace them with someone who will. Others feel that a player’s character and prior contributions should be honoured with present opportunities. I, like so many others, am somewhere in the middle, but where do you draw the line? How much loyalty is too much loyalty? How long does a player have to perform poorly before getting the hook?

It’s an issue that was raised many times last season with Jim Johnson, who was eventually traded after a turbulent season in which he blew 9 saves, but also saved 50. And this season, I find myself at a crossroads in regards to another popular Oriole: Chris Davis.

What is to be done with Chris Davis? He is incredibly popular with fans and in the clubhouse, and had a monster year last year that helped carry the Orioles to their second consecutive winning season. But since last August, it seems he would struggle to even hit a beach ball. He continually looks lost and confused at the plate, unsure how to approach each at-bat and piling up the strikeouts. As much as it pains me to say it, he has become a detriment to the team.

So far this year, Chris Davis is hitting .195/.302/.399 with 20 homeruns (he had over 40 at this point last season). He trails only B.J. Upton in strikeouts and had he not missed 3 weeks of the season, would likely be on his way to shattering Mark Reynolds major league record in that category.

In the first three months of 2013, Davis hit .332 with 31 homeruns, 80 RBI, 35 walks and 91 Ks in 298 ABs. Since then, he is hitting .215 with 42 HRs, 113 RBI, 86 walks and whopping 244 Ks in 634 ABs. That last sentence right there might as well be describing Mark Reynolds – the man who Orioles fans loved to hate and always saw as a liability because of his free-swinging mentality.

So what do the Orioles do with Davis? He remains in the lineup every day because of those 20 HRs. He’s constantly a threat to change the outcome of a game with one big swing, but those big swings are few and far between, and the ugly at-bats are a common occurrence. The way I see it, there are 4 options: keep things as they are and hope Davis comes out of his funk; continue to start him but drop him to the bottom of the order to take some of the pressure off; demote him; or trade him.

I’ll dispel the last one right now – the Orioles are not going to trade Chris Davis. I also don’t see how the Orioles, a first-place team, can justify having a .195 hitter in the heart of their lineup. So that leaves dropping him in the order, or demoting him and I think both have merit.

This is a look fans are seeing far too often lately.
What's the Orioles next move for Chris Davis?
(Photo Credit: NBC Sports)

Davis is obviously well-liked and a good character guy, and as previously mentioned he has the potential to change a game with every swing, so there is benefit to having him in the lineup – he is something opposing pitchers have to think about. Davis is hitting .165 as a cleanup hitter this season and .179 in the #5 spot. Oddly enough, Davis’s best numbers this year have come in the #3 spot in the lineup, in 71 PAs. But there is no way he hits there now, so that leaves 7^th. In limited appearances in the last week, Davis is hitting a respectable .286 with a homerun. Perhaps it’s time to move him down, where he won’t feel the pressure of trying to win each game on every swing and can get back to focusing on his hitting.

The final option – a minor league assignment – is the one I’m leaning towards right now. Davis looks lost at the plate these days with no confidence. He’s still young and has monster power, so perhaps beating up on minor league pitching will allow him to get his timing and swagger back. Davis was a career .318/.374/.596 hitter with 118 HRs in his minor league career, so there’s no reason to think he couldn’t find some success. I’m not talking about a full-on demotion, but maybe a predetermined 2-3 week stint for him to clear his head and find his game again before re-joining the club for the stretch run. If the Orioles could find the Davis of early 2013, this team would be firmly in the World Series discussion.

Loyalty is a difficult thing in sports. The primary objective is winning games, and there is only so much time you can afford to spend on a guy who just isn’t contributing. O’s fans found that out this past offseason when Jim Johnson, Brian Roberts and Nate McLouth became expendable. All 3 of those players have struggled this year and it appears Dan Duquette made the right choice with each, but it’s still a tough and emotional process when all were such high-character guys who contributed so much to the Orioles in their time here. But Chris Davis has actually reached a point where he’s hurting the ball club in his current position, and I’m sure that’s the last thing even he wants.

I’m a big fan of Chris Davis and have not forgotten all he did last season, finishing 3^rd in AL MVP voting. But I’m also a fan of the Birds and I want to see them go as far as they possibly can with this team they’ve put together.

And so the biggest question facing the coaching staff and front office heading through these dog days of summer is what to do with the reigning AL homerun champ.

Loyalty vs. Performance: Where do you draw the line?

-- Christopher Mills, @cjmills82

Staff Predictions

One of the most exciting - and most painful - aspects of being a sports fan or sportswriter is the prognostication element. Most people will be way off and hope no one remembers their bold predictions, while others will hit the jackpot and be declared geniuses (often by themselves, but hey, a compliment is a compliment).

Here at Off the Warehouse, no one gets off easy. We would like to take this time to remind you of our bold and perhaps embarrassing predictions from March, as well as our updated predictions based on the state of the game today. Be sure to comment and let us know who you agree with (and call out the ones you don't).

Matt Baggette: 

Pre-Season

Division Winners: Tampa Bay, Detroit, Oakland, Washington, St. Louis, Los Angeles
Wild Cards: Baltimore, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Atlanta
World Series Matchup: Detroit over Los Angeles

Now

Division Winners: Baltimore, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Washington, Milwaukee, Los Angeles
Wild Cards: Oakland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
World Series Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers over Los Angeles Angels

Pat Maher: 

Pre-Season

Division Winners:  Tampa Bay, Detroit, Oakland, Atlanta, St. Louis, LA Dodgers
Wild Cards:  Baltimore, Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh
World Series Matchup:  LA Dodgers over Oakland

Now

Division Winners:  Baltimore, Detroit, Oakland, Washington, Milwaukee, LA Dodgers
Wild Cards:  LA Angels, Toronto, San Francisco, Atlanta
World Series Matchup: Baltimore over LA Dodgers

Three of our writers picked Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers to go to the World Series. Is that the proverbial kiss of death?
(Photo credit: CBS Sports)

Christopher Mills: 

Pre-Season

Division Winners: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Texas, Washington, Cincinnati, Los Angeles
Wild Cards: Baltimore, Detroit, Atlanta, Pittsburgh
World Series Matchup: Washington over Tampa Bay

Now

Division Winners: Baltimore, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Washington, Milwaukee, Los Angeles
Wild Cards: Oakland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Atlanta
World Series Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers over Baltimore Orioles

Nathan Mullenax: 

Pre-Season*

Division Winners: Baltimore, Detroit, Anaheim, Washington, St. Louis, Los Angeles
Wild Cards: Seattle, Chicago, Milwaukee, San Francisco
World Series Matchup: Miami vs. San Antonio

*Pre-Season was like 30 years ago. I barely remember my playoff picks. Mostly I remember I picked Tampa and Oakland to both finish 4th and was roundly mocked. WHO'S LAUGHING NOW, JOE MADDON/MATT BAGGETTE!

Now

Division Winners: Baltimore, Kansas City, Oakland, Washington, Milwaukee, Los Angeles
Wild Cards: Anaheim, Seattle, San Francisco, Miami
World Series Matchup: Oakland vs. Milwaukee