Start Swinging On 3-0

As the methods of evaluating player performance have evolved, so too have baseball strategies. Hitters lay down fewer sacrifice bunts, defenses shift in horrifying and unimaginable ways; tenets as old as the game itself are falling by the wayside. But there’s one old school mantra that continues to stand the test of time: Don’t Swing At A 3-0 Pitch.

It’s a philosophy that every player first heard from his Little League coach, and with good reason: Little League pitchers are bad at throwing strikes and Little League hitters are bad at recognizing strikes. The same could be said all the way up to the high school level and perhaps even college. But for Major Leaguers, the embargo on 3-0 pitches should be lifted.

Occasionally, you’ll see star players be given the green light to swing at a 3-0 pitch. The idea of course is that if they get a fastball right down the pipe, they’re free to mash it as they see fit. The lower tier players are expected to watch these pitches go by; this makes me sad. Players often say that you usually only get one good pitch to hit during each at-bat. It makes no sense to make hitters keep the bat on their shoulder while a batting practice fastball zips by for strike one. The solution would be to have batters treat 3-0 counts like 3-1 counts, where they look for their pitch and just let anything else go by.

Let’s look at Adam Jones as an example. Despite the fact that he’s been one of the best hitters on the team for a few years, he has never in his career put a ball in play on a 3-0 count. While that doesn’t necessarily confirm that he’s never swung at a 3-0 pitch, it certainly suggests it. Since 2007, Jones has seen a total of 115 3-0 counts. Of those pitches, 77 (66.96%) have been pitches inside the strike zone, including nearly a quarter either right down the middle or middle-away. On pitches in those two locations, Jones is hitting .364. When Jones watches a strike go by on 3-0, his career average is 73 points lower, at .291. Jones should treat 3-0 pitches like 3-1 pitches, on which his career average is a whopping .403 with an .806 slugging percentage.

The Orioles as a team would benefit from being more aggressive on 3-0 pitches. So far in 2014, they’re 3-for-5 with two doubles when putting them in play. More importantly though, after 3-0 pitches (i.e. after the 3-0 pitch is taken for a strike), their average is a mere .247. This is much lower than the American League average, which is .290 in 2014 and was .300 in 2013.

So come on, Buck! Loosen the reins and let our boys swing away on 3-0. You’ll be glad you did.


--Nathan Mullenax (@otwNathan)