The Markakis Factor

Let me just state the obvious right off the top – I’m an Orioles fan and have been for the past 20 years. Most people will read the following piece in that context and declare me biased or “a homer”. While I’m sure I am both to some degree, I assure you they have nothing to do with my analysis of Nick Markakis. Quite the contrary, actually. I believe my years of watching Orioles baseball has given me an appreciation for Nick Markakis’s character and athletic skillset. A skillset that has often been misused or undervalued throughout his career. Nick is one of the most fundamentally-sound baseball players I have ever watched. I’ve never been big on the phrase “he plays the game the right way”, but if that applies to anyone, it applies to Nick Markakis.

I believe a lot of the animosity towards Nick began in the early stages of his career. He was branded a power hitter and cast that way out of necessity, often the lone threat in some Oriole lineups that would make even the early 1900s White Sox cringe. Nick was expected to produce runs and that’s what he did. And the first few seasons of his career, he did it well. But then he ceased being able to carry that load and people began to turn on him, declaring him to be slumping, calling him a bust or just flat out saying he sucks. I realize not everyone feels that way – many O’s fans show great admiration for Nick – but this post is directed at the surprisingly large group of people who do.

A look at Nick’s career numbers shows what an incredibly consistent hitter he’s been throughout his entire career. If you remove his poor 2013 season (which I believe to be just that – a poor year, as opposed to a sign of decline), he has been very steady indeed. The only categories Nick has significantly dropped in throughout his career are doubles and RBIs, which I believe to be more a result of him finally being properly cast as a top-of-the-order hitter as opposed to a decline in his abilities. Even his homeruns have remained consistent, though people constantly seem to think otherwise. Markakis hit 13 in just 420 ABs in an injury-plagued 2012, and after a dismal 10 last year in 634 ABs, has already hit 10 this season in just 474 ABs. Nick is a hitter with a good eye, a great feel for the strike zone and a smooth stroke he can use to supply base hits to all fields. In case you didn’t notice, that spells leadoff hitter, a role Nick likely should have been in his entire career.

In his brief career as a leadoff hitter, Nick has a line of .306/.360/.414. Leading off innings in his career, he is hitting .317/.373/.453. I don’t know about you, but that’s definitely a guy I want at the top of my order.

Now I’m certainly not saying Nick is Tony Gwynn, but I do feel his offensive contributions, especially now that he is leading off and setting the table as he should be, are greatly under-recognized. Not to mention that at age 30 he has already amassed 1,500 career hits. His average in healthy season is ~180, which means, barring injury, he should reach the magic 3,000-hit mark by the end of his age 38 year. That’s the kind of pace he’s on. You didn’t realize that, did you?

But alas, that brings us to the main reason I decided to write this: Nick’s defense. Nick’s defense is something that really seems to polarize people. They either think he’s amazing or they think he’s terrible. And it’s often a split between the sabermetricians among us, and the “old school” stat crowd. I’m often surprised at how many people feel Nick is a mediocre or below average OFer, often citing his range. I’ve been watching Nick his entire career and I can count on one hand the instances where I’ve seen a ball drop that I felt he should have gotten to. He positions himself well, makes good reads and takes good routes to balls, regardless of what any advanced metrics say.

Photo Credit: Kenneth Lam, Baltimore Sun

Let me interject here by saying that I don’t hate advanced metrics. I do think they have use, but in tandem with regular statistics and actually watching a player play. I take issue with people who present advanced metrics as “stats” (they’re not – they’re formulas that attempt to combine stats and value into a catch-all number) or those who completely reject measurable, tangible stats as old school. Maybe Nick doesn’t cover as much ground as some other rightfielders in the game, but he doesn’t need to. For one, he plays next to Adam Jones, who covers more than enough ground to make up for any deficiency Nick might have. And two, Nick does everything else so incredibly well that it more than makes up for it.

We’re talking about a guy who has made just 2 errors since the start of 2011, a span of 522 games, and is 20 or so games away from setting the American League record for consecutive errorless games by an outfielder. Translation: whatever he gets close to, he catches. And how about the arm? Nick averages more than 10 assists per year (including his 10 this season, and we’re only 2/3 of the way through) and there is no measuring how many runners he keeps from going first to third or from stretching singles into doubles by playing the wall at the Yard so well.

As you can tell, I’m a big fan of Nick Markakis, but not because I’m a homer. It’s because I know first-hand how good he is and what he has meant to the Baltimore Orioles since he first took the field in 2006. If you disagree with my assessment, you’re entitled to do so. But I challenge you to watch even a couple weeks’ worth of Orioles games and tell me he’s not valuable to his team’s success.

Baseball has more statistics than any other sport and I understand the desire to try and boil them down to one or two concrete numbers, but it’s an inaccurate and subjective process.

Stats can be a wonderful thing, but sometimes you need to trust your eyes. And this man’s eyes tell him that Nick Markakis is a very special and underrated player in today’s game.

--Christopher Mills, @cjmills82