Tampa Bay Rays Preview 2015

Over the next few days, we will be previewing the upcoming season for the five teams of the American League East, ending with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Up next, the Rays of Tampa Bay.

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays renounced their affiliation with Satan and became the Tampa Bay* Rays and surprised every single person with their rise from perpetual crappiness to the AL East title and a World Series appearance. They would go on to earn winning records in the next five seasons, making three more playoff appearances despite sporting a low payroll and playing in the back of a U-Haul. This sustained success led to Tampa becoming the Orioles overachieving younger brother, constantly praised by Ma and Pa Baseball Expert every holiday dinner. “Why don’t you hire one of those Harvard economists for your front office? Your brother Ray did” “Your brother Ray won 96 games last year on a budget! When are you going to stop working at that pizza place?” and so forth.

That period of success came to a halt in 2014. The 2014 Rays finished dead last in the American League in runs scored, and traded their ace to the Tigers. The gave way to a very interesting and busy offseason for the Rays. Wil Myers, once a premium prospect, was suddenly traded to San Diego along with Ryan Hanigan. The versatile Ben Zobrist and irritable Yunel Escobar were traded to Oakland for a 73-year-old barbecue chef. Jeremy Hellickson was traded to Arizona; Sean Rodriguez was traded to the Pirates; Matt Joyce was traded to the Angels. Perhaps the biggest impact was GM Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon leaving for the bluer pastures of Los Angeles and Chicago, respectively.

But while this team looks to be, on paper, weaker than its 2014 model, it seems the Rays are still trying to win using the same formula that gave them success since 2008: great pitching, solid defense, and a versatile lineup.

Rotation

Alex Cobb

Chris Archer

Drew Smyly

Jake Odorizzi

Alex Colome

Matt Moore (he hurt)

Even without David Price, the Rays rotation is still young and talented. Cobb, Archer, and Smyly all posted very impressive ERAs in 2014, and are also delicious, deadly, and pleasant, in that order. Odorizzi and Colome are each serviceable starters that Tampa is hoping can fill in the gap until the big arm of Matt Moore can return from injury. The health and success of these pitchers are what is going to make or break Tampa in 2015.

Bullpen

Closer Jake McGee anchors what was a rather mediocre Rays bullpen in 2014. He won the job from the hilariously ineffective Grant Balfour. You may remember Balfour as the pitcher that criticized the Orioles for failing his physical for fear that he may become injured or start to struggle in 2014. Balfour vowed to make the O’s look foolish on the deal, then promptly started to struggle. The choice of McGee or Balfour as closer in 2015 seems simple, but we all know that salary and experience have as much to do with selecting a closer as actual pitching ability. The rest of the bullpen is meh. Jeff Beliveau and Brad Box of Burgers were both solid out of the pen last season, and the team is also hoping that recently acquired Ernesto Frieri finds his 2012 form again.

Projected Lineup

1. 

   Even Ray Charles would be able to see this Rays team will
   struggle to put runs on the board this season.                           

   Ray Romano, CF
2. Ray Lewis, SS
3. Ray Liotta, 2B
4. Ray Allen, RF
5. Ray Rice, DH
6. Ray Kroc, C
7. Ray J. Johnson, Jr. 1B
8. Ray Bradbury, LF
9. Ray Charles, 3B

That’s not true I just made that up.

1. Desmond Jennings, CF
2. John Jaso, DH
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. James Loney, 1B
5. Steven Souza, LF
6. Kevin Kiermaier, RF
7. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
8. Rene Rivera, C
9. Nick Franklin, SS

When looking at the Rays projected lineup, the most obvious deficiency is the lack of power. Evan Longoria was the only Ray that surpassed 20 home runs last year; no other Ray was even close. And despite leading the team in homers, Longoria is coming off his worst season. His average dipped to .253 and his slugging percentage was Error--Not Found (.404). James Loney has been a nice pickup for the Rays, but he is not a bat that strikes fear in the middle of the order. Desmond Jennings does a pretty good B.J. Upton/Carl Crawford impression, but he’s not an ideal option for a leadoff man. The Rays will rely heavily on sophomore Kevin Kiermaier and rookie Steven Souza. Acquired in the 3-team trade that sent Myers to San Diego, Souza absolutely demolished AAA pitching last season, hitting .350 and OPSing 1.022 with 18 HR in 407 plate appearances. Souza has just 26 plate appearances in MLB, though, and has yet to prove anything of significance at the highest level.

Evan Longoria is going to have to shoulder a heavy offensive  
load if the Rays have any hope of competing in 2015.

For Tampa to be successful in 2015, it is going to have to win a lot of close, low-scoring games. The offense isn’t likely to put up many runs and while the rotation may be up to the task, it remains to be seen whether the bullpen can hold those 1-0 and 2-1 leads. Another question that must be answered is whether new general manager Matthew Silverman and new manager Kevin Cash can manipulate the roster with as much precision as Friedman and Maddon did. Our computer simulations have them rated at just a 1.7% chance to win the division and an 8.8% chance to make the playoffs. In the majority of simulations, Tampa finishes either fourth or fifth.

*Why citizens of the city of Tampa, FL insist on calling all of their sports team “Tampa Bay” will always be a mystery to me. The teams don’t play in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Hell, the Rays don’t even play in Tampa. It makes as little sense as calling the Giants the “San Francisco Bay Giants”. We as Americans should not stand for this.

-- Nathan Mullenax

American League East 2015 Preview: Boston Red Sox

Our third installment to the Off The Warehouse 2015 AL East season preview: The Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox

2014 Record: 71-91

5^th in AL East

2014 Season Review:

Will Boston return to former glory? (wikipedia)

For the second time in three years, the Boston Red Sox finished in the basement of the American League East division.  The consolation for this, however, was the World Series Championship in 2013.  Fresh off of an historic collapse in 2011 and a dismal 2012 campaign, the Red Sox followed unlikely heroes Shane Victorino and Jonny Gomes to their eighth World Series title and third in ten years.  Unfortunately for them, in 2014, they fell back to the bottom. 

By the July 31^st trade deadline, the BoSox were all but out of the race and had traded away their top pitching talents: Jon Lester to Oakland, Jake Peavy to San Francisco, John Lackey to St. Louis, and Andrew Miller to Baltimore.  From there, it was all downhill as expected following those departures.  Offseason additions Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski never panned out, with Pierzynski eventually departing for St. Louis.  Their bullpen hero from 2013, Koji Uehara, showed his age in the final months of the 2014 season, posting ERAs of 5.56 and 6.23 in August and September respectively.  Clay Buchholz, who looked like a Cy Young contender before health issues in 2013, pitched to a dismal 5.34 ERA in 28 starts.  Outside of a stellar Jon Lester and a solid John Lackey, the Sox pitching staff, overall, was terrible.  These days, a bad pitching staff usually spells bad things for a team. 

The only real bright spots for the defending champs were another big offensive season from David Ortiz, who hit 35 home runs and drove in 104 RBI, another solid season from workhorse and former MVP Dustin Pedroia, and the cannon arm of former top prospect Jackie Bradley, Jr.  Other than that, the 2014 Boston Red Sox were nothing to write home about and it was obvious a lot of work needed to be done to improve this ball club going forward into 2015.

Key Losses

Jon Lester, SP

How will the Boston staff fare without their ace? (Boston Globe)

Jon Lester was traded to Oakland before the July 31^st trade deadline.  Many assumed that the lefty was going to finish the year in Oakland and then sign a long-term deal with Boston after the season.  Unfortunately for Boston, a rumored low-ball offer earlier in the season drove Lester away from town and he eventually ended up in Chicago with former Boston executive Theo Epstein.

Andrew Miller, LHP

Andrew Miller was another deadline casualty as the Sox shipped their lefty reliever to Baltimore for highly rated prospect Eduardo Rodriguez.  Miller went on to dominate in Baltimore before signing a 4 year deal with New York.

John Lackey, SP

In case you haven’t noticed a theme yet, Boston’s key losses came mostly from the trade deadline in 2014.  John Lackey posted a 3.60 ERA in a Sox uniform before heading over to the Cardinals to finish out the season.

Jake Peavy, SP

Have you noticed the second theme?  Pitching.  Jake Peavy was one of four major pitching talents to be sent out of town during the 2014 season.  Peavy went on to win the World Series in San Francisco; his second straight World Series ring.

Key Additions

Pablo Sandoval, 3B

How'd they get that panda to cooperate? (USA Today)

Panda was one of the top free agents on the market in 2014 and it was well known that he was going to get a substantial pay day from somebody, and that somebody turned out to be the Boston Red Sox.  On November 24^th, Sandoval signed a 5 year, $100 million contract with a club option for a 6^th year. 

Hanley Ramirez, SS (?)

Boston snagged another highly prized free agent when they signed former Sox prospect shortstop Hanley Ramirez to a 4 year, $88 million contract with a fifth year vesting option worth $22 million.  Hanley’s role with the 2015 Red Sox may not be what seems obvious, however, but we’ll get into that later.

Rick Porcello, SP

Starting pitcher Rick Porcello was acquired by the Red Sox in a trade that sent short-stint left fielder Yoenis Cespedes and two others to Detroit.  Following the departures of so much pitching, this move may prove to be more significant than it looks at face value. 

2015 Season Outlook

Based on the high profile additions of Ramirez and Sandoval, it is safe to say that the Boston Red Sox were one of the winners of the offseason.  They signed two of the highest profile free agents on the market and were able to trade for a solid pitcher.  But is that enough? 

The loss of Jon Lester may prove to be one of the more significant losses in baseball.  Boston’s 2014 team ERA was 4.01, good for 23^rd in the majors.  Take Jon Lester’s production out of that equation, and their final team ERA would have finished at 4.17, which would have put them as the third worst pitching staff in the American League.   While this is not an 100% accurate portrayal of how the Red Sox staff would have faired without Lester for a full season, it does portray how big of a role Lester played in the Sox organization. 

With the exception of Rick Porcello, not a single starting pitcher slated for the 2015 season sported an ERA under 4.00.  Clay Buchholz was downright terrible, Felix Doubront was relegated to bullpen duty, and Ruby De La Rosa and Brandon Workman were not much better.  Another offseason addition, Wade Miley, while pitching 200+ innings in 33 starts, sported a 4.34 ERA and a 1.401 WHIP.  Justin Masterson hopes to have a bounce back year after posting a 5.88 ERA in 25 starts in 2014, but that will be tough given the offensive prowess of teams like the Orioles and Blue Jays.  

There has been some talk of the Red Sox exploring a blockbuster trade for Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels, but there has not been much movement on that front and the lefty remains a Philly.  If Boston were to add Hamels to their group, they will be in significantly better shape starting pitching wise for the season, but as they are currently built, starting pitching is possibly the worst in the division.

Who will join Tazawa in a depleted bullpen? (60ft6in)

Their bullpen outlook does not bode well, either.  Their best bullpen arm, Andrew Miller, is with their pinstriped rivals and Koji Uehara is quickly approaching either retirement or a return to Japan.  Eduard Mujica, once a Baltimore free agent target, struggled to a 3.90 ERA and 10.4 hits per nine innings going into the final year of his two year contract.  Right hander Junichi Tazawa looks like the only bright spot of the bullpen following the departure of Burke Badenhop to Cincinnati.  The good thing for Boston is that, sometimes, bullpens find success despite what the stats might suggest (see: 2012 Baltimore Orioles).  It seems as if the Boston pen will need to catch lightning in a bottle in order to be effective in 2015.  

What Boston does have going for them in 2015 is what looks to be a stellar offense on paper.  Both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez move from pitcher friendly parks to right handed hitters' paradise Fenway Park.  David Ortiz has shown little to no signs of slowing down power wise from the DH position, and young studs Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts are itching to live up to what was expected from them coming out of the minor leagues.  While not the best lineup top to bottom as it currently stands, the middle part of that order could be one of the most fearsome in all of baseball.  

But, is the baseball world too quick to anoint this offense as one of the best in the game?  Let's take a look at a few numbers:

Pablo Sandoval has proven to be an utter force in the playoffs.  In three years of postseason play, Sandoval has posted a slash line of .344/.389/.545 with 6 home runs and 20 RBI.  That slash line is absolutely unheard of and it's not hard to see why he was so loved in San Francisco.  However, his regular season numbers look a bit different.  Here are Pablo's slash lines from the last 4 seasons:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	.315	.357	.552	.909
2012	.283	.342	.447	.789
2013	.278	.341	.417	.758
2014	.279	.324	.415	.739

As you can see, follwing a great 2011 campaign, Sandoval has seen a yearly decline in OPS.  While still an above average hitter at the plate, he certainly is not the offensive powerhouse that arrives come playoff time.  

Sandoval does sport the advantage of being a switch hitter, which does not allow other teams to match up accordingly.  He also has been know to spray his hits across all fields, making him dangerous from both sides of the plate, though he hits significantly better from the left side.  The big question for Sandoval's bat going into the 2015 season is what will have more influence in his production, moving to hitter friendly Fenway or his declining stats?  Only time will tell.

Hanley Ramirez's bat may be poised for a good season as well.  Even with the infamous Green Monster in left field, Fenway Park is a right handed hitter's delight.  As you can see from the home run spray chart to the right, Ramirez should have no trouble hitting the ball out of Fenway.  

Hanley is coming off another strong season from the plate, batting .283/.369/.448 in 128 games.  In 2013, Ramirez was putting up MVP caliber numbers before succumbing to yet another injury.  If he can remain healthy for a full season, Ramirez could be a force in the AL East.  That's the trouble, however: staying healthy.  Since 2011, Hanley has not seen a full season on the field in three of four years.  With the potential for Boston's rotation to struggle mightily, it is imperative for Ramirez to stay healthy and help the offense produce.  

The other big names in this lineup are former MVP Dustin Pedroia and ageless wonder David Ortiz. While Ortiz had his lowest OPS since 2009, he still managed to slug 35 home runs and drive in 104. Every year, we question whether or not Ortiz's age will finally catch up with him, and every year (save an injury ridden 2012) he continues to produce at a high level.  But, we have to ask: will this be the year his age will be a factor?  How long can he produce at this level?  Just like Sandoval, only time will tell, but for now we'll have to assume he will continue to be a fearsome hitter.  

Can the shortest man in the world return to form? (Counting Baseballs)

Dustin Pedroia is a different story, however.  In 2014, Pedroia posted career lows in OPS, SLG, AVG, OBP, HR, and SB.  His OPS has declined every year since 2011 and is coming off of surgery on a banged up hand.  Coming off of a season like that, it is easy to say that he will have a bounce back year, but it could also be the continuation of his decline, especially given that, at 30 years old, he is on the wrong end of him prime years.  

Despite the declines of three major stars, the Red Sox offense still has one of the more fearsome middle lineups in the game.  Their AL East rivals will have their hands full when Boston is in the opposing dugout.  

In the third facet of the game, however, the Red Sox are not so stellar.  Pedroia is still playing second base at an elite level, but every other position outside of center field (assuming Jackie Bradley, Jr. get the nod) holds an average or below average defender.  Converted catcher Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Xander Bogaerts, and Pablo Sandoval all sported below average range factors per game in 2014.  Young catcher Christian Vazquez, while throwing out 52% of base stealers, had eight past balls despite only playing 54 games behind the plate.  Then we get to left field, which is where it gets really interesting.  

The above image is a screenshot of the defensive positions played by Hanley Ramirez.  A quick look at Boston's posted 40-man roster and...

Hanley Ramirez, a 10 year veteran of the infield, will be the Boston Red Sox starting left fielder.  I have to admit, it is an intriguing idea, however there is reason why any baseball fan should think that this move will work out.  Ramirez was a below average fielder at his natural shortstop position and proved to be one of the laziest defenders in the game, which is reflected in his range factors.  Not only that, but left field requires a completely new set of defensive skills.  He has to learn to properly track fly balls, take correct routes, and properly play hits off of the monster.  There is a very good chance that, at best, the Red Sox have another Manny Ramirez out in left field, and we all know what that was like:

While struggling on defense isn't necessarily the kiss of death for a baseball team, it can be extremely detrimental to a team with below average pitching.  If the Red Sox want to be able to compete in a wide open American League East, their defense must improve.

2015 Season Prediction

Despite having one of the more active offseasons in Major League Baseball, the Boston Red Sox still find themselves with a flurry of "ifs" going into the 2015 season.  The 2013 champs may revive their status as an offensive powerhouse, however their questionable defense and more than questionable pitching will ultimately come back to haunt them.  With the way this team is currently built, it is hard to put them as favorites in the American League East.  It is likely that the team will improve on their 2014 season, but I find it hard to see them winning more than 82 games.  If the Boston Red Sox want to compete in 2015, they're going to have to find their 2013 magic touch and a whole lot more pitching.

2015 Record Prediction: 79-83, 4th in AL East