Tampa Bay Rays Preview 2015

Over the next few days, we will be previewing the upcoming season for the five teams of the American League East, ending with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Up next, the Rays of Tampa Bay.

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays renounced their affiliation with Satan and became the Tampa Bay* Rays and surprised every single person with their rise from perpetual crappiness to the AL East title and a World Series appearance. They would go on to earn winning records in the next five seasons, making three more playoff appearances despite sporting a low payroll and playing in the back of a U-Haul. This sustained success led to Tampa becoming the Orioles overachieving younger brother, constantly praised by Ma and Pa Baseball Expert every holiday dinner. “Why don’t you hire one of those Harvard economists for your front office? Your brother Ray did” “Your brother Ray won 96 games last year on a budget! When are you going to stop working at that pizza place?” and so forth.

That period of success came to a halt in 2014. The 2014 Rays finished dead last in the American League in runs scored, and traded their ace to the Tigers. The gave way to a very interesting and busy offseason for the Rays. Wil Myers, once a premium prospect, was suddenly traded to San Diego along with Ryan Hanigan. The versatile Ben Zobrist and irritable Yunel Escobar were traded to Oakland for a 73-year-old barbecue chef. Jeremy Hellickson was traded to Arizona; Sean Rodriguez was traded to the Pirates; Matt Joyce was traded to the Angels. Perhaps the biggest impact was GM Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon leaving for the bluer pastures of Los Angeles and Chicago, respectively.

But while this team looks to be, on paper, weaker than its 2014 model, it seems the Rays are still trying to win using the same formula that gave them success since 2008: great pitching, solid defense, and a versatile lineup.

Rotation

Alex Cobb

Chris Archer

Drew Smyly

Jake Odorizzi

Alex Colome

Matt Moore (he hurt)

Even without David Price, the Rays rotation is still young and talented. Cobb, Archer, and Smyly all posted very impressive ERAs in 2014, and are also delicious, deadly, and pleasant, in that order. Odorizzi and Colome are each serviceable starters that Tampa is hoping can fill in the gap until the big arm of Matt Moore can return from injury. The health and success of these pitchers are what is going to make or break Tampa in 2015.

Bullpen

Closer Jake McGee anchors what was a rather mediocre Rays bullpen in 2014. He won the job from the hilariously ineffective Grant Balfour. You may remember Balfour as the pitcher that criticized the Orioles for failing his physical for fear that he may become injured or start to struggle in 2014. Balfour vowed to make the O’s look foolish on the deal, then promptly started to struggle. The choice of McGee or Balfour as closer in 2015 seems simple, but we all know that salary and experience have as much to do with selecting a closer as actual pitching ability. The rest of the bullpen is meh. Jeff Beliveau and Brad Box of Burgers were both solid out of the pen last season, and the team is also hoping that recently acquired Ernesto Frieri finds his 2012 form again.

Projected Lineup

1. 

   Even Ray Charles would be able to see this Rays team will
   struggle to put runs on the board this season.                           

   Ray Romano, CF
2. Ray Lewis, SS
3. Ray Liotta, 2B
4. Ray Allen, RF
5. Ray Rice, DH
6. Ray Kroc, C
7. Ray J. Johnson, Jr. 1B
8. Ray Bradbury, LF
9. Ray Charles, 3B

That’s not true I just made that up.

1. Desmond Jennings, CF
2. John Jaso, DH
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. James Loney, 1B
5. Steven Souza, LF
6. Kevin Kiermaier, RF
7. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
8. Rene Rivera, C
9. Nick Franklin, SS

When looking at the Rays projected lineup, the most obvious deficiency is the lack of power. Evan Longoria was the only Ray that surpassed 20 home runs last year; no other Ray was even close. And despite leading the team in homers, Longoria is coming off his worst season. His average dipped to .253 and his slugging percentage was Error--Not Found (.404). James Loney has been a nice pickup for the Rays, but he is not a bat that strikes fear in the middle of the order. Desmond Jennings does a pretty good B.J. Upton/Carl Crawford impression, but he’s not an ideal option for a leadoff man. The Rays will rely heavily on sophomore Kevin Kiermaier and rookie Steven Souza. Acquired in the 3-team trade that sent Myers to San Diego, Souza absolutely demolished AAA pitching last season, hitting .350 and OPSing 1.022 with 18 HR in 407 plate appearances. Souza has just 26 plate appearances in MLB, though, and has yet to prove anything of significance at the highest level.

Evan Longoria is going to have to shoulder a heavy offensive  
load if the Rays have any hope of competing in 2015.

For Tampa to be successful in 2015, it is going to have to win a lot of close, low-scoring games. The offense isn’t likely to put up many runs and while the rotation may be up to the task, it remains to be seen whether the bullpen can hold those 1-0 and 2-1 leads. Another question that must be answered is whether new general manager Matthew Silverman and new manager Kevin Cash can manipulate the roster with as much precision as Friedman and Maddon did. Our computer simulations have them rated at just a 1.7% chance to win the division and an 8.8% chance to make the playoffs. In the majority of simulations, Tampa finishes either fourth or fifth.

*Why citizens of the city of Tampa, FL insist on calling all of their sports team “Tampa Bay” will always be a mystery to me. The teams don’t play in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Hell, the Rays don’t even play in Tampa. It makes as little sense as calling the Giants the “San Francisco Bay Giants”. We as Americans should not stand for this.

-- Nathan Mullenax