Tuesday, February 17, 2015

American League East 2015 Preview: New York Yankees

This week, we will be previewing the upcoming season for the five teams of the American League East, ending with the defending champion Baltimore Orioles.

Leading off, the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees
2014 Record 84-78
2nd in AL East

2014 Season Review:

For the second straight season the Yankees missed the playoffs. This coming after an offseason where they spent gobs of money on free agents that included the likes of Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Masahiro Tanaka. They spent most of the year with a black hole at second base after letting Robinson Cano leave. And spent a good deal of time saying goodbye to retiring Derek Jeter.

Their big name free agent players produced mixed results, leading to a less then stellar offense. They finished the year 20th in runs, 12th in homers, 20th in batting average, 23rd in OBP, 17th in SLG and 20th in OPS in all of baseball. This lead to them adding players like Chase Headley and Martin Prado during the season via trades to try and beef up the offense. Add to this a laundry list of injuries to their pitching staff, such as, losing CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova for most of the year, seeing Michael Pineda make only 13 starts, and seeing their best pitcher in Tanaka (13-5 2.77 ERA) miss pretty much all of the second half. The 2014 season also marked the first in the post-Mariano Rivera era. David Robertson took over as closer and had a good season, but they were forced to make many moves to try to fill the pitching staff in, adding the likes of Brandon McCarthy and Chris Capuano. This led to a staff that finished 18th in ERA. It wasn't enough for them to keep pace in the division or wild card races, though McCarthy did pitch rather well for them.

Key Losses

Derek Jeter, SS

While the captain had one of his worst seasons at the plate and in the field, the loss of his presence and leadership will be hard to replace. After Mariano Rivera retired, Jeter was the last of the core group of players that helped lead the Yankees to 5 World Series rings. It will be an odd sight to see the Yankees without #2 in the lineup.

David Robertson, RP

He took over for a legend as closer. He had a good year saving 39 games and a 3.08 ERA. But with Dellin Betances appearing poised to take over as closer, the Yankees let him leave for the White Soxs. He now has a year of closing experience under his belt, while the Yankees will enter a second straight season with a closer that has never held the job at the big league level.

Brandon McCarthy, SP

After a mid-season trade to help sure up their injury riddled rotation, McCarthy pitched to a 7-5 record with a 2.89 ERA. The Yankees seemed to want to keep him, but he left for Dodgers, at 4 years and $48 million.

Shane Greene, SP

He made 15 starts for the Yankees. He was decent. 5-4 with a 3.78 ERA. He was traded a three team deal that would bring the team Jeter's replacement.

Hiroki Kuroda, SP

For a team that had so much trouble fielding healthy pitchers they sure let a bunch go. Kuroda had his highest ERA since 2009. But he still was able to give the team innings, with 199. Kuroda decided to go back to Japan and pitch there this year.


Key Additions

Andrew Miller, RP

Miller had his best season. He was traded to the Orioles at the July 31st trade deadline. He then was dominant for the Orioles the rest of the season and when he pitched in the playoffs. He is partnered with Betances to make what could be the best one-two punch at the end of games in all of baseball. Neither he or Betances have closed before. And it's not 100% clear who will be given the closer's role or if they will share it.

Chase Headley, 3B

Headley was acquired midseason in a trade. He came over and was a big help on defense and his bat was okay, but not great. He will never match his 2012 offensive production again, but the Yankees decided his plus defense was enough to give him a 4 year, $52 million contract.

Didi Gregorius, SS

Gregorius was the return in the three team trade that saw Shane Greene leave. Gregorius has a reputation as a plus defender, which should be a giant upgrade over Derek Jeter, though not many in New York are likely to say that out loud. The problem here is he is all glove and almost no bat. And he's replacing a legend.

Nathan Eovaldi, SP

Acquired in the Martin Prado trade, Eovaldi is an interesting young arm with some promise. He is coming off a season where he went 6-14 with a 4.37 ERA. But he was able to throw 199.2 innings. If nothing else he's a younger arm with some upside that should be able to give innings.

Alex Rodriguez, INF

LOL!!!!!!

2015 Season Outlook

The Yankees offseason saw them land one of the best free agents in Andrew Miller and bring back Chase Headley. While not adding to their rotation they seem to be counting on their injured pitchers coming back strong. They have added a better defensive player to replace Jeter but his bat won't help a team that was in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories. They also have lost Jeter's leadership.

Then there is the rotation. CC is coming off a serious injury and may be in full decline. After a 4.78 ERA in 2013, he pitched to a 5.28 ERA last season, though only in 8 starts. Tanaka was great the first half. But after his injury he only made one start and there is the still looming possibility that he will need to have Tommy John surgery and be lost for the entire year. Ivan Nova is coming off of Tommy John himself and won't be ready at the start of the year but should be ready to go at some point in the first few months. Michael Pineda pitched well in 13 starts he made in 2014, posting an ERA of 1.89. He may be the teams best and most healthy starter for the upcoming season. This is a rotation that is counting on the returns of several pitchers from injury and banking on Tanaka not needing TJ. Pineda and Tanaka could be a formidable top two. But the rest of the rotation is shaky at best.

Miller and Betances might be the best one-two punch at the end of games in all of baseball. But can either of them close? And will they be able to get to either of them with a lead? The rest of the pen is a bit of a question. David Carpenter comes over from Atlanta and looks to be one of the set up men. He had an excellent 2013 but took a step back in 2014, allowing 9 hits per 9 innings pitched and seeing his ERA jump from 1.78 to 3.54. Adam Warren had a 2.97 ERA overall, but it climbed to 3.26 in the second half. They also have signed Andrew Bailey to a minor league deal, hoping he can stay healthy and show some of what made him a Rookie of the Year winner in 2009.

For a team who's offense was in the bottom half of the league in most categories they did nothing to improve it. The hope here must be that players like Brian McCann, who had the worst year of his career in OBP and OPS, and Carlos Beltran can return more to what they have done in the past. Didi Gregorius replaces Derek Jeter, and while he can't be much worse than Jeter was last year at the plate, he isn't exactly a giant upgrade. Also there is the oh so fun circus of Alex Rodriguez coming back from a year long suspension. Where does he play? Can he even field? Is there anything left in his bat? He will more than likely spend time at DH, a spot they must use to rotate several of the older players through.

Defensively they should be an improved club, espically the left side of the infield. Headley and Gregorius will be much better than what they had last season. Gardner and Ellsbury well have left and center field covered well.

So has this team improved? Defensively they have upgraded. The back end of their pen could be nasty. Their offense is counting on players coming back from down years and otherwise has done little to improve. The rotation is banking on injured stars coming back and being effective. There are a lot of if's with this approach. I see them as a team still in the 80-85 win range. A team that will still miss the playoffs.

Matthew Baggette @mlb930

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